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HorizonKinetics
@HorizonKinetics
Wealth management and thought leadership. #HorizonKineticsResearch #HorizonKineticsJapan #HKMutualFunds #HorizonKineticsETFs
New York, NY
horizonkinetics.com
Joined April 2011
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    HorizonKinetics
    @HorizonKinetics
    Jan 9
    2026 New Year Letter from Our Founders Some clients have remarked on the private funds we’ve presented in recent years. Have we wandered from the value investing path? The answer is “the opposite.” Here's a deeper explanation, without character limits:  
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    HorizonKinetics
    @HorizonKinetics
    Jul 1, 2022
    Observation #45: Lost refining capacity since March 2020 Since mid-2020, the United States has lost the ability to process over 1 million barrels of crude per day. This is the largest drop on record.
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    HorizonKinetics
    @HorizonKinetics
    Jan 3, 2023
    Observation #61             During the 73 years between Marcus Aurelius’s reign ending in 180 CE and the beginning of the reign of Emperor Gallienus, the denarius silver coin was periodically debased – by mixing in a cheaper base metal, like lead – from 75% silver to only 5%.
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    HorizonKinetics
    @HorizonKinetics
    Jun 7, 2023
    Observation #67 The pattern of drawdowns from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve since the beginning of 2021 is unsustainable.  The 283 million barrels released took 25 years to  accumulate.  Can these be replaced?  Will they?
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    HorizonKinetics
    @HorizonKinetics
    Feb 21, 2023
    Observation #63 Prevailing rates will replace the low rates on outstanding debt as securities mature and are replaced by higher interest paper. This will happen sooner than one might think - about half the Federal Debt Outstanding matures in the next 3 years. #inflation
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    HorizonKinetics
    @HorizonKinetics
    Sep 26, 2023
    Observation #72 Does oil demand fall during periods of economic contraction? Not usually; in fact, it rarely materially contracts at all.
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    HorizonKinetics
    @HorizonKinetics
    Nov 29, 2021
    1/7 The last ~13 years was a boon, in the form of expanding profit margins, to consumer goods companies (flat to lower sugar & wheat prices, pork & palm oil, plastics, aluminum & steel, oil, etc, etc). That’s not happening again. YTD-Nov 2021: the CRB Index is up 19%.
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    HorizonKinetics
    @HorizonKinetics
    Sep 7, 2023
    Observation #71 Oil consumption in the non-OECD world is rising, as those countries look to traditional fuels to drive economic development. The likely result: higher global oil demand. #inflation
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    HorizonKinetics
    @HorizonKinetics
    May 4, 2022
    Observation #34 Are markets a buy yet? Warren Buffett has called US market cap/GDP the best measure of where valuations stand. Roughly speaking, markets are undervalued if the ratio is < 85%; fairly valued 85% to 115%; and overvalued > 115%. Current reading: 170%.
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    HorizonKinetics
    @HorizonKinetics
    Nov 10, 2025
    Fresh off the presses, our latest Quarterly Commentary offers a deep dive into everything from localized inflation plays to limiting-factor beneficiaries of continued AI/data center growth: horizonkinetics.com/whats-new/
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    HorizonKinetics
    @HorizonKinetics
    Oct 28, 2022
    Observation #57 In the first three quarters of 2022, global equity and debt markets lost $92T in value. Consider that global GDP for 2021 totaled $96.3T (Source: IMF). Compare to 2008, when global markets lost $17T in the first three quarters, while 2007 global GDP was $58T.
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    HorizonKinetics
    @HorizonKinetics
    Aug 3, 2021
    Fund manager Horizon Kinetics bets on land and crypto as inflation rises (Financial Times 7/28/2021) #HKMutualFunds
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    HorizonKinetics
    @HorizonKinetics
    Dec 13, 2021
    The CPI is not a true measure of inflation. Contrary to general understanding, the CPI does NOT measure the general – the experienced – price level, nor is it designed to.
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    HorizonKinetics
    @HorizonKinetics
    Feb 9, 2024
    Observation #82: Headlines about money supply growth turning negative and CPI growth slowing only tell part of the story. Aggregate levels paint a different picture: M2 remains 35% higher than in early 2020, while the CPI level is 19% higher. #HorizonKineticsResearch
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