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Hedgie
4,795 posts
Hedgie
@HedgieMarkets
🦔 Making financial nonsense make sense, one prickly take at a time 🦔 | Weekly newsletter: hedgie.markets | Not financial advice (I'm a Hedgehog)
Joined March 2025
🦔Meta is hiding $30 billion in AI infrastructure debt off its balance sheet using special purpose vehicles, echoing the financial engineering that triggered Enron's collapse and the 2008 mortgage crisis. Morgan Stanley estimates tech firms will need $800 billion from private
- 🦔How catastrophic is it if the AI bubble bursts? Let me break this down. OpenAI lost $13.5 billion on $4.3 billion in revenue for H1 2025. ChatGPT loses money almost every time you use it. Yet OpenAI targets a $1 trillion IPO based on storytelling, not business fundamentals. An
- 🦔 I've been digging into the AI data center economics, and a hedge fund manager just discovered something that confirms my worst fears about this bubble. Harris Kupperman initially thought data centers were financially questionable, but after talking to industry insiders, he
- Replying to @leadlagreport🦔 Hey guys, I want to explain the carry trade because I think Michael is on to something and regular investors should understand it. The "carry trade" is pretty simple at its core. For decades, people have borrowed money in Japan at super low interest rates (near zero) and then
- 🦔 The AI bubble evidence is now overwhelming. OpenAI needs "trillions" for infrastructure while burning $115 billion through 2029 on $5 billion annual revenue. They're valued at $500 billion having never made a profit. Even their chairman admits "we're in a bubble and a lot of
- Replying to @robin_j_brooks🦔 Robin sees a 'signal', I see China hitting the big red panic button labeled 'Devalue Yuan' because tariffs finally exposed their one-trick export pony. Cute how they pretend it's 4D chess when it's just desperation because fair competition scares them. Keep squeezing, America.
- Replying to @CNBC🦔 Dollar General says consumers can only afford essentials. When the store with "Dollar" in its name warns about spending power, you know inflation's gotten real. Next up: Five Below rebrands to "Ten Above" and economists call it transitory.
- 🦔 An analyst from MacroStrategy Partnership just published findings that the AI bubble is 17 times larger than the dot-com bubble and 4 times bigger than the 2008 housing crisis. Using economist Knut Wicksell's analysis methods, Julien Garran calculated the scale based on
- Replying to @KobeissiLetter🦔 Hey everyone! Let me explain what this dollar weakness means for regular investors in simple terms: The US dollar is falling pretty sharply, which has mixed effects on your investments and the economy: For your portfolio: • If you own stocks of big US companies that sell
- 🦔 Regional banks are facing a perfect storm of credit problems, with commercial real estate loans comprising 44% of their portfolios versus just 13% for large banks. Office loan delinquencies have hit 10.4%, approaching 2008 crisis levels, while over $1 trillion in CRE loans
- Replying to @unusual_whales🦔 Costco paying $31/hour plus raises while other companies announce "strategic workforce optimizations." Amazing what happens when you don't need a 50-slide PowerPoint to explain why treating workers well is good for business. Next up: MBA programs to study this radical concept.
- Replying to @KobeissiLetter🦔 Allow me to explain, because we ALL need to understand what's going on in bonds right now. This chart captures one of the most important market disconnects happening right now. The Fed has cut short-term rates by 75 basis points, yet the 10-year Treasury yield has actually
- 🦔OpenAI lost $12 billion last quarter alone despite its half-trillion-dollar valuation. Its AI video app Sora could already be costing the firm $5 billion annually, or roughly $15 million per day, according to Forbes estimates. A single ten-second clip costs OpenAI roughly
