Sharing thoughts on browsing e-commerce
Vivek Goyal
618 posts
Vivek Goyal
@Goyal_Vivek
Partner @ Altimeter Capital. No investment advice. All views personal.
Menlo Park, CA
Joined July 2009
- Sentiment has changed quickly. Fascinating to learn how AMZN responded back in 2000s when the Market context changed from growth to profitability. Legendary! AMZN revenue / EBITDA: 1999: 169% y/y, -19% 2000: 68% y/y, -9% 2001: 13% y/y, +1% 2002: 26% y/y, +5%
- Internet multiples now at 23x LT EBITDA 8% higher than long-term average of 21x -45% lower than Jan 2021 average of 42x
- Last decade in real estate tech was about information marketplaces. Z, RMV, SFUN, REA were $10B outcomes Next decade will be about transaction marketplaces. Z, RDFN, OPEN, BEKE, Loft are targeting this Like in other verticals, transaction models will likely create more value 🏠
- Internet Index now trading at 18x NTM LT EBITDA. 10% discount to long term average of 21x. Many stocks (CVNA, PINS, CHWY, MELI) below Jan 2020 multiples..
- Story of two charts Chart 1: Internet multiples are down 55% in the past 12 months!! 😲🤯
- Interestingly, FB ARPU in NA is higher than NFLX ($200/DAU vs $160/sub) Even though NFLX subs spend more time on the service than FB DAUs (120 vs. 90 min/ day) Major difference is that FB makes money from merchants who drive higher value from the platform and thus have high WTP
- Internet Index at 18x vs. Dec 2018 16x. Software Index at 10x vs. Dec 2018 9x. We are within 10% of Dec 2018 lows - last time investors worried about Fed rate hikes. Nothing magical about Dec 2018, but fear may provide good entry points for long term investors. @altcap
- Investing in s-curves is highly rewarding initially but can be very painful as companies mature and growth slows and expenses climb.. Very few companies have been able to stack add new s-curves - GOOGL with YouTube + G Cloud - AMZN with AWS - AAPL with services
- AI Agents: Next frontier to access the web Internet apps evolved from websites (2000s) to mobile apps (2010s), and now to AI Agents (2020s) Gen AI now enables widespread availability to services that were once exclusive to the privileged few, including personal assistants,
- Sharing thoughts on valuing internet businesses on EV/ NTM long-term EBITDA multiple and its dependency on growth. Would love to discuss and learn!
- Amazing that @sundarpichai / @googlecloud re-iterated their $75b capex guide for 2025 despite the tariff uncertainty! big-tech + @OpenAI realize that this is a generational opportunity and the prize is large enough to continue investing through macro noise
- Over the past decade, Google's search revenues have surged ~5x (+17% CAGR) driven primarily by +13% CAGR in revenue per search result page, rather than a +4% CAGR in the number of search result pages displayed. Increase in revenue per page is largely due to 1) higher ad load and
