Adam Butler (@GestaltU) / X

Adam Butler

20.1K posts

Adam Butler

@GestaltU

CIO of ReSolve Asset Management. Tweets and/or views do not represent ReSolve’s investment positioning.

Swimming

Joined February 2012

Adam Butler
@GestaltU
Aug 10, 2025
I’ve got bad news. The AI cycle is over—for now. I’ve been an unapologetic AI maximalist since the first time I tricked GPT-4 into writing a working Python back-test for a volatility strategy back in early 2023. I’m still convinced it will take the wider economy years—maybe
617K
Adam Butler
@GestaltU
Sep 13, 2025
Here’s a hard truth about modern society. We don’t practice Capitalism anymore. Rather, for the last 40 years we’ve been conducting a horrific experiment called “neoliberalism”. And we’re near the terminal point in that experiment, a stage I’ve been calling metastatic market
Adam Butler
@GestaltU
Sep 12, 2025
Guys. Nobody is trying to radicalize us. There is no conspiracy here. Everything can be explained by the following observation: 🔥Radicalization is the most profitable business model on earth, practiced by the most profitable companies on earth.🔥 Look no further.
189K
Adam Butler
@GestaltU
Jun 13, 2022
Zoom out, people. The S&P is still up 30% over the past two years, and almost 40% over the past 3 years. Call me when we've dusted at least a couple years' worth of returns.
Adam Butler
@GestaltU
Nov 8, 2025
It’s disorienting for me to be clapping along with Steve Bannon and Peter Thiel, who seem to be the only people with microphones talking openly about the real reasons late Xers, Millenials and Zers are turning to socialism. We sold corporatism as capitalism for decades and are
Russ Greene
@GreenPlusAnE
Nov 7, 2025
Peter Thiel today: “Boomers are strangely uncurious about how the world is not really working for their kids. It’s always hard to know how much bad faith there is or how bad the actors are. I think it’s odd that people thought it was odd that I was complaining about student debt
111K
Adam Butler
@GestaltU
Jan 5, 2025
Here’s some serious AI alpha. Frontier AIs (gpt-4 +, Claude, Gemini, etc.) have unfathomably large latent knowledge spaces. But most prompting only activates a tiny portion of it. To get more accurate, creative and novel answers, use the following prompting technique. I’m
103K
Adam Butler
@GestaltU
Feb 24, 2022
I’m obviously appalled at the needless human tragedy that will unfold over the next few weeks and months. What may not be well understood, yet, is that this invasion was precisely timed to unleash an economic attack on the West’s most prized totem: asset prices. A 🧵about this:
Adam Butler
@GestaltU
Sep 12, 2025
Guys. Nobody is trying to radicalize us. There is no conspiracy here. Everything can be explained by the following observation: 🔥Radicalization is the most profitable business model on earth, practiced by the most profitable companies on earth.🔥 Look no further.
286K
Adam Butler
@GestaltU
Mar 11, 2022
I’ll say this: With credit blowing wider by the day, duration crushed, inflation hottest in 40yrs, Chinese property & tech in free-fall, insane commodity vol,Fed stopping asset purchases and raising rates & neg earnings revisions you’ve gotta respect the resilience of US stocks.
Adam Butler
@GestaltU
May 1, 2022
I may have discovered why many of the most successful quants don’t post much online. Aside from trade secrets, a major challenge is that the distance between what works, and what you learn in MBA, MFin, CFA programs etc. is nearly impossible to bridge w/o a complete re-education.
Adam Butler
@GestaltU
Apr 29, 2025
I’ve come to believe that one of the greatest impediments to healthy, dynamic economies is high returns on passive investments and / or speculation. Why take risks building businesses when you can invest in homes or stock indices and earn a much higher risk-adjusted return, where
75K
Adam Butler
@GestaltU
May 3, 2022
Running high-Sharpe ensemble strategies is FRUSTRATING. A short 🧵 1/ Recall that an ensemble is many strategies in one. Ideally these strategies are uncorrelated. The combo is well diversified with a high expected Sharpe ratio. Sounds nice, right? Here's the rub:
Adam Butler
@GestaltU
Mar 14, 2020
I forget who mentioned yesterday that if social distancing is successful it will be viewed by most people as unnecessary in retrospect. This is the essence of risk management, and why so few manage risk.
Adam Butler
@GestaltU
Nov 25, 2018
Heard from a university student that he and his friends all learn their subjects online from Kahn Academy and other posted lectures. They only attend classes to learn what the prof wants to see on exams. The generalist university model is irrevocably broken.
Adam Butler
@GestaltU
Jan 18, 2025
The meme-ification of the most sacred office of global institutional power is a terminal step on the road to civilizational decline. This act also aligns Trump’s interests with the cult of crypto-nihilists. Like Charlie Munger said, “Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the
42K