Gabriel Epstein (@GabrielEpsteinX) / X

Gabriel Epstein

2,266 posts

Gabriel Epstein

@GabrielEpsteinX

Senior Policy Associate @IsraelPolicy4m. Former Research Assistant @WashInstitute. Graduate @SAISHopkins.

Joined April 2017

Pinned
Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Apr 13
6 months after the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, all vectors for increases to the Hamas-run Gaza Healthy Ministry (MOH) death toll have sharply decreased. That calls projections of a substantially higher death toll into question. Details below: 🧵
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Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Aug 21, 2025
The +972/Guardian articles alleging that the IDF’s internal data indicates it has killed fewer than 9,000 militants in Gaza misconstrues the available data, improperly combines IDF and Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry figures, and fails to ask key questions. Very long thread 🧵
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Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Aug 5, 2025
Yesterday (8/4), the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry (MOH) released its 12th list of the dead (via Telegram and WhatsApp) since the Israel-Hamas war began, containing 60,198 entries and covering up to July 31. Longer analysis of data quality and demographics 🧵:
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Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Aug 26, 2025
The U.N.’s Gaza aid channel is plagued by near-ubiquitous looting of food aid. But UNICEF has successfully delivered 380 tons of food in the last two weeks, while WFP and WCK have delivered none. The apparent key to UNICEF’s success? Hiring security. 🧵
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Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Jul 16, 2025
Yesterday (7/15), the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry (MOH) released its 11th list of the dead (via Telegram and WhatsApp) since the Israel-Hamas war began, containing 58,380 entries and covering up to July 15. An analysis🧵:
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Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Jun 19, 2025
Propaganda failure: Iran's state news agency Fars claims that Soroka Hospital was not hit by a missile. Rather, they say Iran fired missiles at 2 Israeli intel buildings in Tel Aviv and the shockwave hit the hospital (see left). This claim lacks any credibility, to say the least.
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Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Oct 17, 2025
A photo from the Hamad City Facebook page that illustrates the strange situation: at bottom, a bulldozer digging deep enough that it may be trying to unearth a tunnel; at top, Red Cross staff monitor the search while a gunman (almost certainly plainclothes Hamas) monitors them.
Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Oct 17, 2025
Another hostage's body will reportedly be returned tonight. Earlier, al-Jazeera aired footage of an excavation in the Hamad City neighborhood in north Khan Younis -- it's not clear if these are remains Hamas already possessed or believes it recovered today.
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Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Aug 22, 2025
More on this: a Hamas source told Reuters in Feb 2024 that the group alone had lost 6,000 fighters. This can't be reconciled with +972's claim that Hamas/PIJ combined lost only 6,500 fighters by Dec 2024. Without trusting either claim, they don't line up. reuters.com/world/middle-e…
Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Aug 21, 2025
Replying to @GabrielEpsteinX
Finally, relying on secondhand information about Hamas and PIJ’s losses, which they have never publicly disclosed beyond a handful of leadership figures, is poor practice. These are not trustworthy groups, particularly on this subject, and this is not corroborating evidence.
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Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Aug 29, 2025
For those wondering, this is not U.N. aid. It is a warehouse controlled by the Egyptian Committee (ERC), which operates outside the U.N. 2720 system and moves/distributes aid on its own. This is one of three major state-led Gaza aid efforts — Egyptian, Emirati, and Jordanian. 🧵
COGAT
@cogatonline
Aug 28, 2025
This is an overstocked warehouse of aid in Deir al-Balah. Aid enters Gaza continuously, and the warehouses are full. There is no limit on the amount of aid trucks that can enter Gaza.
00:00
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Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Aug 5, 2025
Replying to @GabrielEpsteinX
The demographics demonstrate a much higher share of adult men (18-59) and older teenage boys relative to their share of the population and a much lower share of women and children (see chart). The share of men and older teenage boys continues to grow over time.
5.3K
Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Nov 4, 2025
Hamas warns Gazans against posting obituaries of militants via the affiliated al-Hares (Guardian) platform. While it's well-known that Hamas pressures families not to acknowledge the militant status of dead family members or friends, it's rare to see this done so openly.
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Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Jul 23, 2025
Some further takeaways from this thread: 1) For the first time, MOH data show a narrow majority (50.24%) of those killed in Gaza are adult men. When citing the MOH, journalists will need to modify the common "mostly women and children" characterization of the death toll.
Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Jul 16, 2025
Yesterday (7/15), the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry (MOH) released its 11th list of the dead (via Telegram and WhatsApp) since the Israel-Hamas war began, containing 58,380 entries and covering up to July 15. An analysis🧵:
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Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Aug 5, 2025
Replying to @GabrielEpsteinX
Like all published MOH lists, the July list does not distinguish between civilians and combatants and attributes all listed deaths uniformly to Israeli action. Nor does it include the dates of death (none of the lists have) or collection methodology (which most iterations have).
5.6K
Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Jul 21, 2025
Despite a months-long effort by the Hamas-run Government Media Office (GMO) to quietly bring its death toll claims in line with the Gaza Ministry of Health’s (MOH -- also Hamas-run) by freezing its claims for women and children killed, large discrepancies remain. 🧵:
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