Freda Duan (@FredaDuan) / X

Freda Duan

289 posts

Freda Duan

@FredaDuan

Investing @ Altimeter Capital. No investment advice. robonomics.substack.com

Joined January 2021

Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Sep 21, 2024
After months with FSD 12, I’ve gone past the “wow, this is magic” phase. The analyst in me scrutinizes every disengagement and edge case. But today, I just had one of those “tears in my eyes” moments. On a mini road trip, FSD 12.5.2.1 flawlessly handled the winding roads that
00:00
6.6M
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Oct 24, 2024
The rate of improvement in $TSLA's FSD disengagement ratio is stunning—it's proof that scaling laws apply to self-driving and real-world AI. Piecing together the progress: v13: 5-6x improved Miles per Critical Intervention ("mpci") (Source: Tesla 3Q Earnings Call) v12.5: 3x
6.7M
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Jul 2, 2024
Just finished a one-week trip to China. I've now "survived" all the major (~20) L2 self-driving and robotaxi vehicles in both the US and China. Some thoughts & observations: ▶️L2 self-driving I tested major brands like $Huawei, $Li, $NIO, $Xpeng, and $Xiaomi. Overall, they
00:00
00:00
00:00
00:00
399K
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Apr 2, 2024
Tsla's moat in self driving The self-driving space has been a battleground of ideas: LiDAR vs. cameras, rule-based to end-to-end. A lot of dead bodies with new entrants keep coming. As FSD pivots to end-to-end, there are a lot of discussions around its moat - why can’t other
603K
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Jan 30, 2025
$TSLA's $10 Trillion Bet on Optimus: Why It’s Not as Crazy as It Sounds On $TSLA's earnings call, Elon stated, "Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue." At a $20K ASP, that implies 500M robots - 5% of the global population (8B). Sounds massive, but
81K
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Sep 21, 2024
Replying to @JonathanGuito
Trillion: In the United States, cars collectively travel approximately 3.28 trillion miles annually, as of July 2024[4]. This figure is derived from the total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) data provided by the U.S. Federal Highway Administration. The average American driver
86K
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Jan 2, 2025
Spent a few hours testing FSD v13 with @stevehouf in Manhattan yesterday (X community is the best). We hit the busiest spots—SoHo, FiDi (WTC), Brooklyn Bridge, Chinatown, etc. FSD passed my "big city test." Manhattan's chaos is infamous, and FSD performed better than expected.
00:00
00:00
00:00
00:00
68K
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Aug 20, 2023
Demystifying the Modern Acquirers $Stripe $ADYEN $PYPL Braintree in charts: Volume & Growth: Braintree growing the fastest, while $Stripe & $ADYEN are settling in the 20% range Together they process $2T globally in payments (a 50%+ CAGR since 2020). They've claimed ~30% of US
411K
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Sep 6, 2024
Autonomous Driving’s Unit Economics: $Waymo's "Hardware Problem" Andrej Karpathy recently made a thought-provoking statement: " $TSLA (FSD) may still have a software problem, but Waymo has a hardware problem. Between the two, software is much easier to solve.” 🔎Here's a
229K
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Apr 8, 2024
Been testing $Waymo vs $TSLA FSD in SF. Some subtle differences in user experience, but both are remarkably impressive. As FSD rolls out to 2M vehicles in the U.S. and Waymo expands beyond SF, this year might redefine the automotive industry's history. ▶️$Waymo vs. $TSLA FSD
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Apr 2, 2024
Tsla's moat in self driving The self-driving space has been a battleground of ideas: LiDAR vs. cameras, rule-based to end-to-end. A lot of dead bodies with new entrants keep coming. As FSD pivots to end-to-end, there are a lot of discussions around its moat - why can’t other
261K
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Oct 24, 2024
This is one of the best earnings calls from $TSLA. The level of insight—rooted in first-principles thinking—is astonishing. Two of my favorite: 1/ Lower cost = higher adoption Such a simple concept, but it’s the driving force behind nearly everything $TSLA/Elon does. During the
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Oct 24, 2024
The rate of improvement in $TSLA's FSD disengagement ratio is stunning—it's proof that scaling laws apply to self-driving and real-world AI. Piecing together the progress: v13: 5-6x improved Miles per Critical Intervention ("mpci") (Source: Tesla 3Q Earnings Call) v12.5: 3x
56K
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Aug 5, 2024
Capex vs. AI Revenue Update Since the below post, Sequoia and GS have also raised concerns about "too much capex, too little revenue," leading to market worries about 1) ROI and 2) the sustainability of the capex supercycle. These concerns, combined with an overweight position
320K
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Dec 17, 2021
1/ China’s e-commerce, with the highest online penetration (30%+), serves as a playbook of how the industry might evolve: Search-based -> Social E-comm (2018) -> On-demand (2020) -> Live Streaming (2021+) The industry, though very mature, has become MORE fragmented over time
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Nov 27, 2024
China's Robotaxi Status Check (vs. the West) Consumers globally want cheaper, safer transportation. It's notable that $Waymo and $BIDU have achieved utilization rates that rival traditional ride-hailing services. Traditional ride-hailing faces disruption - $BIDU is targeting
Freda Duan
@FredaDuan
Sep 6, 2024
Autonomous Driving’s Unit Economics: $Waymo's "Hardware Problem" Andrej Karpathy recently made a thought-provoking statement: " $TSLA (FSD) may still have a software problem, but Waymo has a hardware problem. Between the two, software is much easier to solve.” 🔎Here's a
83K