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François Heisbourg
@FHeisbourg
Senior advisor for Europe, IISS, conseiller spécial/special adviser FRS
Joined February 2012
Posts
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    Apparently, Ukraine will receive six more Dutch F-16s than originally planned with an eventual total of 30 instead of 24
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    A view of the weather in Paris which is supposed to have deterred @realDonaldTrump from paying his respects to the brave American soldiers who gave their lives for freedom at the AisneMarne war cemetery this afternoon. Nothing a cyclist can't handle, let alone a presidential helo
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    All the more impressive since Israel, and specifically Bibi, never shared such words with Zelensky when Ukraine was invaded
    Horrible news from Israel. My condolences go out to everyone who lost relatives or close ones in the terrorist attack. We have faith that order will be restored and terrorists will be defeated. Terror should have no place in the world, because it is always a crime, not just
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    Est-ce seulement moi, mais je suis surpris par la faible résonance médiatique du fait que 30 de nos compatriotes ont été assassinés par le Hamas? Je voudrais me tromper. C'est l'acte de terrorisme le plus meurtrier depuis Nice le 14 juillet 2016 (86 morts)
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    Some people wonder whether I am being alarmist when I suggest that Russia may test EU and NATO's resolve directly. My answer is (a) that many people discounted the possibility that Putin would invade a country the size of France, that he wasn't simply venting. 🧵1/
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    I fully understand & share the reasons why NATO rejects a no-fly zone. I neither understand nor share the reasons why the 🇺🇸 & maybe others hold up the transfer of combat aircraft to 🇺🇦: such transfers are not considered as an act of war in international law+practice. What's up?
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    A legal investigation has been opened in France re former president Sarkozy's ties to Russia
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    A real European success: the EU now produces more 155 mm shells than the US does even if it's still not enough and the picture isn't the same in other areas of war production. But the assumption that the European defence industrial base can't ramp up is plain wrong
    🇪🇺 The EU has delivered over 980,000 shells to Ukraine so far. By the end of the year, the number of delivered shells will reach 1.5 million, says EU foreign policy chief Borrell. "I know that we made a commitment to reach this level by the spring - and we failed. But we will
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    An ongoing massive,calm, dignified demonstration is taking place in Paris against antisemitism, embracing the full political spectrum (among political leaders only the ultra-left leader Mélenchon denounced the initiative, refusing to join). 73 similar demos are taking place in 🇫🇷
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    No, Sir. At this stage of the sanctions process, you are simply showing that the City of London is harbouring Russian assets nearly as hefty as the US and the EU do in combination. Not really something to be proud of
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    Londongrad laundromat: Russian🇷🇺 bank assets in the UK🇬🇧 possibly coming under sanctions: 6 times the amount of similar Russian assets in the whole of the EU. These UK-based assets are equivalent in value to one eighth of Britain's GDP and about one fourth of Russia's GDP. 💷💷💷
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    The order of causality is the other way around: after suffering close to 1/2 a century of oppression by Moscow, the Central+Eastern European countries joined NATO in order to make sure it wouldn't happen again. 🇸🇪+🇫🇮 are joining because 🇷🇺 invaded 🇺🇦, not the other way around
    Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a major crime, but there is no country on earth that would not view the expansion of a hostile military alliance along its borders as a threat to its national security. I’ve been reading the declassified files from 1990s. NATO knew all the risks.
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    Countries which think that by acquiring US weapons systems they are also securing a greater defence guarantee should think again: they may simply be acquiring red lines. Going European may be the wiser choice.
    ❗️The Pentagon announced "red lines" for Ukraine regarding the use of the promised F-16 fighter jets. Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder said that the West is considering their use exclusively within the territory of Ukraine. 👉🏻 Ryder emphasized that currently the air coalition
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    Given what is happening to non-NATO 🇺🇦 , the strategically most prudent option may now be the close-to-immediate admission of 🇸🇪+🇫🇮 into NATO, while the bulk of🇷🇺's combat forces is otherwise occupied. The situation is no longer that of the 2016 report @niinisto @carlbildt