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Emil Verner
@EmilVerner
Professor at @MITSloan working on finance, macroeconomics, international economics, economic history, and other fun stuff
Cambridge, MA
Joined December 2014
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    New paper on bank runs with Correia and Luck: "Bank Runs With and Without Bank Failure" Questions: - What are the determinants of runs? - When do bank runs result in bank failure? - Can runs trigger the failure of healthy banks and amplify small shocks into large crises? -
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    Just out in AEJ:Macro, Hsieh and Moretti argue that spatial misallocation due to housing supply constraints have lowered US growth by 36% (36!) since 1964.
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    Delighted to see this paper forthcoming at ReStud!
    ``The sectoral allocation of credit matters for whether credit booms result in growth slowdowns and financial crises.'' From @KarstenMueIIer and @EmilVerner: restud.com/credit-allocatโ€ฆ
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    Very excited that our paper (w/ @AtifRMian and @profsufi) โ€œHow Do Credit Supply Expansions Affect the Real Economy: The Productive Capacity and Household Demand Channelsโ€ is now forthcoming at the Journal of Finance! 1/
    Forthcoming soon: @profsufi @ChicagoBooth, @AtifRMian @PrincetonBCF, @EmilVerner @MITSloan find that credit supply expansion boosts nontradable sector employment and the price of nontradable goods, amplifying the business cycle doi.org/10.1111/jofi.1โ€ฆ
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    Students and colleagues often ask me about my favorite popular books on macroeconomics and finance. Here is a selected (i.e., not comprehensive) list of books that have inspired me. Posting in the hope that it might serve as inspiration for others too
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    New paper with Sergio Correia (@Ogoun) and @StephanLuck: โ€œPandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Fluโ€ Comments welcome!
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    Keynesโ€™ โ€œA Tract on Monetary Reformโ€ (1923) contains some insights that are quite interesting and relevant for todayโ€™s debate about inflation and the role of corporate โ€œgreedโ€ and โ€œprofiteering.โ€ delong.typepad.com/keynes-1923-a-โ€ฆ /1
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    Identification in macro from the JPE in 1937 (!!) Norway and Denmark experienced deflation and recessions in 1925-28 because they attempted to return to pre-war gold parities. Sweden and Finland did not and enjoyed a boom throughout the 1920s jstor.org/stable/1824241โ€ฆ
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    Excited to share a new paper! โ€œThe Debt-Inflation Channel of the German Hyperinflation.โ€ This is joint work with an awesome set of co-authors: @MarkusEconomist , @Ogoun, @StephanLuck, and @TomZ_Econ Link: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfโ€ฆ A short threadโ€ฆ 1/
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    People have been debating whether tightening financial conditions imply that the Fed should slow monetary tightening. The argument is that banking distress leads to credit contraction, which will reduce demand and inflation. 1/
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    Happy to see my paper with @ogoun and @StephanLuck published in the Journal of Economic History! We find that NPIs in the 1918 pandemic flattened the mortality curve and reduced cumulative mortatility, without harming local economic activity. 1/
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    Interesting paper in the latest AEJ:Macro by Greg Howard showing that in-migration leads to lower unemp rate through housing wealth and construction channels. Implies that migration amplifies rather than stabilizes shocks, contrasting with the usual view pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10โ€ฆ
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    Excited that this paper (w/ @gyozo_gy) is forthcoming at the JF. We find that household financial distress from foreign currency debt exposure during a currency crisis in Hungary led to a large increase in support for a debtor-friendly far-right populist party. /1
    Forthcoming soon: Gyรถngyรถsi @SAFE_Frankfurt, @EmilVerner @MITSloan find that household foreign currency exposure loan during currency crisis in Hungary lead to large, persistent rise in support for populist far right (which campaigned on FC debt relief) doi.org/10.1111/jofi.1โ€ฆ
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    What was the connection between the German hyperinflation and Nazism? This is a very complex issue, but I think itโ€™s probably too strong to say that the hyperinflation did not play a role in the rise of Nazism. A short thread 1/
    Given the revival in the German press of the myth that hyperinflation led to Nazism, when it was austerity that did, I re-post my 2013 Kurt Viermitz Lecture @AmericanAcademy Berlin: Exorcising Ghosts of Inflation and Unification from German Economic Policy m.youtube.com/watch?v=u0_uDZโ€ฆ