New election graphic showing the migration of voters from 2017 to 2019 with remainers and leavers distinguished. Each figure represents 300,000 voters, or 1pc of all voters. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/pseph_transiti…
Electoral Calculus
1,467 posts
Electoral Calculus
@ElectCalculus
Electoral Calculus (electoralcalculus.co.uk) is a quantitative political consultancy, well-known for its website of election predictions and data.
- Our latest poll-of-polls breaks new ground showing #Conservatives not even the opposition in a new parliament, with #SNP as official opposition to #Labour. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
- Our new large MRP poll with @FindoutnowUK for @Telegraph shows #Labour 25% ahead and the Conservatives set to get fewer seats than the SNP. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_mrppo…
- What if...? Green supporters switched to voting Lib Dem (other than in Brighton Pavilion). Recent YouGov poll on left, hypothetical scenario on right. The electoral system is not so kind to smaller parties or divided blocs.
- 🚨New MRP poll with @FindoutnowUK for @DailyMirror and @GBNEWS shows #Conservatives behind the #LibDems in seats: CON: 60 LAB: 450 LIB: 71 REF: 18 GRN: 4 SNP: 24 PC: 4 OTH: 1 NI: 18 Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
- Pre-Christmas graphical treat for electoral aficionados - see how voters have migrated between parties and/or not-voting since 2019. #Labour have gained voters from nearly as many directions as the #Conservatives have lost them. Details electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/pseph_tr…
- New MRP poll from us and @FindoutnowUK for @DailyMailUK and @GBNEWS shows #Labour set for landslide majority and #Conservatives less than 100 seats. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
- New update to our poll-of-polls: #Labour's extraordinary lead of 23pc over #Conservatives implies an extraordinary majority of 292 seats. That's the biggest predicted majority since (our) records began in 2004. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
- Our new MRP poll, on behalf of @PLMRLtd and with @FindoutnowUK, suggests that if a General Election were held soon, Reform could win an outright majority with 377 seats, while the Conservatives may drop to just 29 seats 🗳️ Read more electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipol…
- What if, @pollytoynbee asked us, the Lib Dems, TIGs and Greens fought together on one slate at the Euro elections? A quick calculation by Electoral Calculus suggests they could gain about half a dozen extra seats. Read her full story:
- FINAL PREDICTION: Our final poll-of-polls has the #Conservative lead over #Labour around 9-10pc, which could give a workable majority if the polls are correct. Today is the day for one final poll with a sample size of 46,842,628 (approx). Let the people choose.
- 🚨 Less than 4 hours until the polls close and we have the exit poll... From 10pm onwards we'll be on here providing updates and insight throughout the night. This will include... 1/4
- NEW PREDICTION: #Brexit party standing aside in seats won by #Conservatives in 2017 is worth about twelve more seats to the Cons. All our predictions now updated to reflect this. electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
- Our initial estimates of the new parliamentary seats in Wales are: Labour 18 (-4), Conservative 12 (-2), Plaid Cymru 2 (-2). So all parties take a bit of a hit, as eight seats disappear in Wales overall.
