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Deribit Insights
Deribit
@DeribitInsights
Best resource for Crypto Derivatives trading. Telegram 24/7: t.me/deribit Deribit is not available in the United States or other restricted countries.
Joined October 2019
Posts
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    1) The Eurex Bitcoin ETN news may have accelerated the Friday buyer earlier in the day than normal, as large spot buying combined with Aug 50-52k Calls x2k frustrated MM hedging delta+vol risk. Although the buyer has been termed the 'Friday Ape', there's more refinement involved.
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    1) A volatile Spot week (increased RV), but drifting IV highlights positioning in place ahead of the holiday season and potential ETF announcements. Twitchyness on swift Spot declines, protection bought. Large sale of BTC Vega to buy ETH Vega. Requested Jan 12th Expiry listed.
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    1) Massive cascading spot+futures liquidations at the weekend, coincided with only minor options closures. Subsequent reaction in IV supports view that many large players had used derivs and Options as a prophylactic measure. Short deltas perhaps covered. Options flows unsettled.
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    1) An extremely rare occurrence for Bitcoin is the Event-driven trade, observed as Futures ETF deadlines approached, & then approved. Options are a perfect tool to employ in these scenarios. 48hour volumes exceeded 4.5bn notional. Implied Vol ranged 100%. Let's Dive in. ๐Ÿงต1/14
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    1) Santa rally fading, BTC Dec31 46k Puts bought, anecdotal rumblings of Tradfi LP allocation audits into EOY, making for a captivating finale as Dec31 Options roll and completely detach into Jan bullishness: Jan7 50-53k Call spread, Jan28 55k Calls + Jan 1x2 Call spreads bought.
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    1) Additional funds jumping into the NewYear play. This time, refocus on BTC, as one large Fund buys a strip of Jan14 52-56k Calls x1200 around 49.5k spot, just before spike >50k. Then Jan7 50-54k and Mar 50-70k Call spreads bought, and now just prior to exp Dec31 51k Calls x500.
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    1) Cliche, but was today the calm before the storm? After such an active holiday season, yesterday's strong rally, vol squeeze, and exit unwind of the BTC Jun65k+Jun85k Calls; today saw a couple technical trades, but otherwise a relaxation in Spot, Vol and funding. BTC<ETH Dvol.
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    1) When markets break it's impossible to differentiate between desired and forced Option flow. Will avoid discussing precise forensics today as an Options trade may appear bullish/bearish when actually it's risk mitigation or taking profits. Big picture of the last 24hours: ๐Ÿงต
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    1) ETH Mar 2k-3k Call spread bought x30k. Hated ETH rotation as BTC+loved Alts Pull-back. ETH Dec ATM bought, and Jan+Mar 3k Calls bought x25k, pushing ETH Dvol >60%, while BTC Dec ATM sold and DVol drifts <57% as anticipation of an imminent pre-holiday BTC Spot ETF diminishes.
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    1) Speculation by a Matrixport independent analyst that the SEC may delay imminent ETF approval was circulated around news sources during a period of high leverage, funding, and positive sentiment, which some argued triggered a 10% BTC cascade. Bullish Option positions unaltered.
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    1) Not often I focus on ETH, but this is where the action is. Lock in: Readers may recall Dec 3.2+3.5-6k Call spreads being bought mid-May at ETH 2500. This guy returned, rolled 3.2+3.5k Calls to the 4k Strike, and with $16m premium spent it on Dec 4k-6k, and 5k-7k Call spreads.
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    1) As BTC <30k, fast money did what fast money does - focussed on large Jun25 expiry - panicked on shorts, closed risk, took profits. But the real story was generated by Fund Call buying near spot support, Jul 32-40k, Aug 45-50k, Sep50-56k, in addition to large delta1 purchases.
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    1) 'Time and tide wait for no man'. BTC Spot ETF decision approaches fast. Call buyers skip the holiday season. Theta related to '24 expiry Options is offset by rising demand and Implied Vol. ETH being willed higher, and confidence increases. Jan 2.4-2.9k Call spread bot x43.5k.
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    Welcome new writer Markus Thielen @DeFiOnTarget! Recent events point to a year-end rally in stocks & crypto. Higher beta cryptos outperforming Bitcoin may signal a big rally. Check your exposure. Bitcoin tends to rally +23% pre-Christmas. Read more โฌ‡