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Patrick Tucker
@DefTechPat
Sci-Tech editor for @DefenseOne. Spies, AIs and the future(s). signal signal.me/#eu/RniNNB5sfq…
The trough of disillusionment
Joined March 2009
Posts
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    Senior State Department official tells me: “Russia has badly mismanaged the planning for this operation. Their logistics trains are poorly organized, morale is bad, and they are totally unprepared for urban warfare in Ukrainian cities.” (Cont)
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    Replying to @DefTechPat
    “They have many advantages over Ukraine in terms of numbers of forces and equipment but they’re playing their hand badly and have sustained high casualties. The Ukrainians are determined to defend their homeland.”
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    CIA Director Burns "President Xi and the Chinese leadership are a little bit unsettled. by what they're seeing Ukraine. They did not anticipate that the significant difficulties the Russians were going to run into"
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    Replying to @DefTechPat
    ODNI Director adds Events "likely to reinforce China's perspective on our the seriousness with which we would approach an infringement on Taiwan and in the unity that they've seen between Europe and the United States, particularly in enacting sanctions."
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    Replying to @DefTechPat
    She adds "Not just that unity, but the impact of those sanctions I think are both things that are critical to their calculus and something that will be interesting for us to see how they run those lessons."
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    Important on Article 5. It's often said that an attack on a NATO ally could "Trigger" an A 5 response but NATO officials really stress that Article 5 is a conversation, not a machine. "An Article 5 Response" can take all sorts of forms. It's not a WWIII button.
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    Watch John Kelly search the room, his cup, his tie, for some reassuring sign this is all just a dream... But it never comes. It never comes. x.com/abc/status/101… NATO
    "Germany is totally controlled by Russia," Pres. Trump tells NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg as they sit down together for bilateral breakfast ahead of Brussels summit. abcn.ws/2u9EUVJ
    00:00
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    BREAKING Flynn will not speak at Special Operations Forces banquet tonight, after being previously listed as keynote ndia.org/-/media/sites/…
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    A Russian veterans group says conscripts are writing home in shock at finding themselves on the frontlines—where Russian law says only volunteer troops are supposed to be. defenseone.com/technology/202… via @DefenseOne
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    US Officials today said that they now saw Russian forces assembling in attack positions. @maxar sends these showing new arrival of troops and attack helicopters, ground attack aircraft and fighter-bomber jets to forward locations, ground units in attack formations (thread)
    Helicopter group near Donuzlaz. Credit @Maxar
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    Replying to @jstein_star
    Yeah, Musk also destroyed X’s credibility, share holder value, and user base. So…. Is that the goal? Or…
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    The Trump admin is abandoning the Open Skies Treaty. The likely effect: U.S. allies having less information on Russian military activity, a resurgence of espionage activity between Russia and the US defenseone.com/technology/201… My take from October for @defenseone #openskies
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    Am told Russian Facebook now down
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    Elon Musk, the richest defense contractor in the world, is under investigation by the Michigan Secretary of State for potentially running a massive voter fraud scheme through his PAC, fueled by user data from this social network cnbc.com/2024/08/04/elo…