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.@DLineCap's Jeff Mayberry and Mark Kimbrough survey the June 1-5 week, ending with a selloff in stocks and higher bond yields on fed funds rate worries after Friday’s strong payrolls report for May.
DoubleLine Minutes
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DoubleLine Minutes
@DLineMinutes
A weekly market discussion with DoubleLine's Macro Asset Allocation team recorded Friday afternoon for your Monday morning commute, or anytime in between.
- Replying to @DLineMinutesPrices Index increased to 53.2, indicating manufacturers are seeing higher input prices compared to last month. #ISM #PMI #manufacturing #prices #inflation #growth
- US industrial production advanced more than expectations in September, +0.4%MoM vs. 0.1% consensus and -0.1% the previous month. Industrial Production increased 5.3% YoY. Manufacturing sector output increased for the third straight month, +0.4%MoM and 5.9% annualized in Q3.
- Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator declined -0.8%MoM in October vs. -0.7% consensus and -0.7% the previous month. The 12-month change improved to -7.6%. The 6-month annualized change ticked up to -6.4% from -6.5% the previous month. Consumer expectations, ISM new
- Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator declined -0.5%MoM in November vs. -0.5% consensus and -1.0% the previous month. The 12-month change improved to -7.6%. The 6-month annualized change ticked up to -6.8% from -7.1% the previous month. Consumer expectations, ISM new
- Replying to @DLineMinutesPrices Index increased to 55.8, the highest since July 2022, indicating manufacturers are seeing higher input prices suggesting stubborn inflationary pressures.
- .@DLineCap's Jeff Mayberry on Copper-Gold ratio: "If the Copper-Gold ratio is correct, a recession is coming and the 10-year yield should continue to fall." For more on this useful indicator, read Mayberry's paper "The Power of Copper-Gold." doubleline.com/wp-content/upl…
- Replying to @DLineMinutesThe Fed will have the latest CPI and PPI inflation data in hand for its meeting that concludes tomorrow when policy makers are widely expected to increase interest rates for the first time since 2018. #geopolitics #rates #FOMC #inflation #hikes #growth #stocks #bonds
- NAHB Housing market index improved in February to 48 from 44 the previous month. “And while mortgage rates still remain too high for many prospective buyers, we anticipate that due to pent-up demand, many more buyers will enter the marketplace if mortgage rates continue to
- Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator declined more than expected in December -1.0%MoM (v. -0.7% expected) and the previous month was revised lower to -1.1% from -1.0%. The YoY decline of -7.4% is a level only seen during recessions, looking at data going back to 1960.
- With its yield down to 4.2%, the two-year Treasury, Samuel Lau thinks, seems to be “pointing towards the end of the Fed rate-hiking cycle.” Listen: doubleline.com/markets-insigh… #rates #Powell #Fed #FOMC #pause #pivot #stocks #bonds #recession
- .@Conferenceboard Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator declined -0.4%MoM in July, the previous month was revised to -0.7% (from -0.8%). On a year-over-year basis, LEI dropped to 0%, which typically occurs 3-12 months prior to entering recessions.
- MMM’s Jeff & Sam look at what the de-inverting of the 2s10s and 3s10s could mean for potential recession timelines. End of the year? Next June? Buckle up, indeed! 👂doubleline.com/markets-insigh…
- Pending home sales surged higher in January, +8.1%MoM vs. +1.0% consensus and 1.1% previous month (revised down from 2.5%). This was the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The report noted buyer activity improved on better affordability from lower mortgage rates in
