Convective Chronicles (@ConvChronicles) / X

Convective Chronicles

6,968 posts

Convective Chronicles

@ConvChronicles

One-stop shop for in-depth forecast discussions and case studies for upcoming and past severe weather events across the United States.

youtube.com/ConvectiveChro…

Joined April 2022

Pinned
Convective Chronicles
@ConvChronicles
Feb 26
LINK: youtube.com/watch?v=VuPkue… My 2026 Tornado Season Forecast is live! In it, we discuss the factors that tend to modulate tornado frequency and distribution in the US from March-June and how they’re expected to evolve through the season. We'll then take a look at several analog
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Convective Chronicles
@ConvChronicles
Oct 6, 2025
It appears the Enderlin, ND, tornado on June 20, 2025, has been upgraded to an EF-5, the first in the US since the Moore, OK, tornado of May 20, 2013. The reasons for the upgrade include the train derailment south of Enderlin and trees that were debarked with a "sandpapering
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Convective Chronicles
@ConvChronicles
Apr 2, 2025
In a shocking turn of events, SPC has upgraded to HIGH RISK (level 5/5) for the Mid-Mississippi River Valley today (Wed). Apparently, increasing confidence in a significant tornado outbreak has warranted the upgrade.
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Convective Chronicles
@ConvChronicles
Oct 10, 2024
Look at all the tornado warnings across Florida today...126 in total. This is #2 all time for tornado warnings in a single state on a single calendar day, behind only Alabama's 134 tornado warnings on April 27, 2011, during the Super-Outbreak. What a day. #Milton
00:00
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Convective Chronicles
@ConvChronicles
May 14, 2025
LINK: youtube.com/watch?v=MaEtYQ… It's here! SPC meteorologist Chris Broyles & I discuss his High Risk forecast for the April 2, 2025 tornado outbreak. Chris details what he saw in the forecast synoptic environment and several in-house SPC tools in the days leading up to the event.
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Convective Chronicles
@ConvChronicles
Apr 6, 2023
With 120+ confirmed tornadoes & counting, the March 31 outbreak now ranks #6 all time for no. of tornadoes in a 24-hr period (112). Meteorological breakdown on this & yesterday’s event coming soon; we’ll discuss how different the 2 events were despite similar background patterns.
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Convective Chronicles
@ConvChronicles
May 9, 2025
April 2 High Risk breakdown coming very soon…stay tuned!
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Convective Chronicles
@ConvChronicles
Sep 26, 2025
Not something you see every day…legit supercell complete with hook echo over Phoenix, AZ! #azwx
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Convective Chronicles
@ConvChronicles
Apr 1, 2023
With 700+ severe reports (65 tornado reports), yesterday's event was incredible from a meteorological perspective. I chased the southern mode and documented the Little Rock, AR tornado at close range. I'll have a post-mortem on this event up at some point; it might be a long one!
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Convective Chronicles
@ConvChronicles
May 6, 2024
Can’t stress enough how significant today’s risk is, particularly from southern KS into northern/central OK. Regardless of SPC risk category, please have multiple sources of reliable weather info, heed all warnings, and have safety protocols in place. This is the real deal.
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Convective Chronicles
@ConvChronicles
Apr 10, 2025
Many of you have asked about a breakdown of the April 2 High Risk tornado outbreak. Don’t worry; it’s in the works! However, it might be a few weeks off still, but that’s only because I have something big planned. I’m excited, you might say I’m (O)MEGA excited………👀
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Convective Chronicles
@ConvChronicles
Aug 16, 2025
In midst of one of the most incredible periods of rapid intensification we've seen, Erin has become Cat 5 hurricane this morning as it meanders north of Leeward Islands. Thankfully, models have converged around solution where Erin stays over water away from land, including the US
GIF
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Convective Chronicles
@ConvChronicles
Apr 26, 2024
Bona fide tornado outbreak today with several intense tornadoes, particularly across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. 63 tornado reports and counting. Shows what can happen when all the ingredients are in place.
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Convective Chronicles
@ConvChronicles
Oct 7, 2025
Given yesterday's news about the EF-5 upgrade to the Enderlin tornado, my meteorological breakdown of the June 20 event will now be my next video on the docket. Chasers: I'm trying to gather as many images/videos as I can for the research process for this video. If anyone has
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