We just posted a new working paper on LP vs. VAR estimation of macro impulse responses. Comments very welcome, summary below!
scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/…
Christian Wolf
211 posts
- Happy to see this out :) Also soon we'll be posting the first full version of our "HANK-meets-FTPL" follow-up, where we try to connect our results on the deficits-inflation link to the large FTPL literature.When households are non-Ricardian, fiscal deficits can stimulate economic activity and raise future tax revenue. We discuss the conditions under which this mechanism can be potent enough so that deficits finance themselves econometricsociety.org/publications/e…
- New paper out on how fiscal deficits are financed, joint with Chen & Marios. Also available here: economics.mit.edu/sites/default/… I'll try to briefly summarize the main idea below.If Ricardian equivalence fails and output is demand-determined, then fiscal deficits can finance themselves through a mix of output boom and higher inflation, from George-Marios Angeletos, Chen Lian, and @ChristianKWolf nber.org/papers/w31185
- Just posted an updated version of my working paper on interest rate cuts & stimulus checks. Three main points on how I think about these two as macro stabilization tools. scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/…
- Very excited to see this paper out in print! As always it was a pleasure to work with Mikkel. Brief summary thread ⬇️
- We're happy to see this out, on deficits ➡️ inflation in HANK and in the FTPL. Some quick thoughts:Deficits in HANK models can be as inflationary as in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL). The mechanism, however, is different, grounded on micro evidence about consumption, and immune to FTPL controversies, from George-Marios Angeletos, Chen Lian, and @ChristianKWolf
- Very happy to see this paper out now, working on it was a lot of fun! Quick summary👇Local Projections and Vector Autoregressions share the exact same impulse response estimand. Any identification approach (short-run/long-run/sign restrictions, IVs, etc.) that works with one method can equivalently be implemented with the other method econometricsociety.org/publications/e…
- Recently posted a new working paper on LPs vs. VARs, joint with @EricQian252, Mikkel, and Pepe: economics.mit.edu/sites/default/… Some quick thoughts below.
- @AlisdairMcKay and I recently posted an updated version of our paper on time-series regressions and macro policy rule counterfactuals. My attempt at a summary 🧵How to use empirical evidence on policy shocks to predict the effects of changes in systematic policy rules, from @ChristianKWolf and @alisdairmckay nber.org/papers/w30358
- I really enjoyed working on this with @AlisdairMcKay, great to see it get published -- also some follow-up work coming soon!This paper presents a method for using empirical evidence on the effects of policy shocks to construct counterfactuals following changes in policy rules, without violating the Lucas critique @ChristianKWolf @AlisdairMcKay econometricsociety.org/publications/e…
- I recently posted a substantially updated version of my job market paper. Summary 🧵follows.Cross-sectional analysis often differences out general equilibrium (GE) effects; a look at when and how time series estimates of fiscal spending multipliers can help us learn about the missing GE part, from @ChristianKWolf nber.org/papers/w29558
- This year @luigi_bocola and I are organizing the NBER “Methods and Applications for DSGE Models” workshop, to be held in Philadelphia in October. The main theme will be inflation. Please send us your papers, both empirical and theoretical contributions welcome!
- Really enjoyed presenting my work with @AlisdairMcKay at @nberpubs EFG yesterday. Presentation (with technical hiccup at beginning...) & absolutely fantastic discussion by Valerie Ramey here (youtube.com/watch?v=z1C19H…) and paper here (economics.mit.edu/files/22578).
- Very much looking forward to this!You can now submit your application to the latest EABCN Training School: "Empirical Methods for Business Cycle Analysis" by @ChristianKWolf, Manheim, June 10-12 2024 eabcn.org/sites/default/…













