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Charles Grant
@CER_Grant
Director, Centre for European Reform. Interested in the EU, Russia and China. Also a music lover.
London
Joined July 2012
Posts
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    Recently spoke to a group of senior business leaders. All believed that not extending Brexit transition would be v bad for their businesses and the economy. But none was willing to speak out in public, for fear of punishment by No 10. Not a healthy way to run UK. @CER_London
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    In Birmingham at a @spectator fringe I point out to @Jacob_Rees_Mogg that most UK businesses donโ€™t complain about EU regs. They do complain about friction at the border. Couldnโ€™t govt use review of TCA due in 2026 to reduce paperwork for importers/exporters, I ask?
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    This afternoon at @waitrose in Holloway, as I bemoaned the absence of pasta, rice & bread, I saw a tall woman unloading cartons of food onto shelves. Twas Sharon White, @jlandpartners' chairman, mucking in with her colleagues. She told me of plans to get food on shelves. Chapeau!
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    A short thread on the resignation of @DavidGHFrost as Brexit minister. It matters. Together with the PM he ran Brexit policy. Few other ministers or officials had much say. And he was a big advocate of the thump'em school of diplomacy, believing that being tough gets results./1
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    Assuming that HMG sticks with its apparent plan of scrapping parts of Withdrawal Agreement and doing without an EU-UK trade accord, I foresee 10 consequences - a short thread. @CER_EU /1
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    But Charlie weโ€™ll be horribly divided for a generation whether or not we have 2nd ref. Iโ€™d rather be divided within EU, so there is more ยฃ to spend on helping the poorest people, than outside with a smaller economy and less ยฃ to help the disadvantaged.
    The destructive impact of the referendum on our politics has been huge. To suggest a second referendum is unwise.
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    The invasion of #Ukraine will have consequences - a thread. 1) Russia's economy already faced multiple problems - inability to diversify from hydrocarbon exports, the dead weight of corruption, stagnant living standards; sanctions (esp tech bans) & isolation will hurt economy.
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    Replying to @CER_Grant
    Frost's departure is symptomatic of BJ's weakness - and weakens him further, since he was one of the PM's few real allies. If he has any sense, Johnson will focus on his domestic problems and try to avoid big fights with EU. By-election showed Brexit no longer a vote-winner. END
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    Debating @Jacob_Rees_Mogg on @BBCr4today this morning, I gave him the chance to apologise for traducing me in the Commons. He declined, despite the fact that Dexeu minister @SteveBakerHW has graciously apologised for the episode on Thursday. @CER_EU
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    .@CER_EU will be analysing the #Brexit deal in due course, when there is a text to study. In the meantime here are 10 reflections on the Brexit process - a thread. /1
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    I just spent a week in Beijing, for the first time in many years. A few thoughts. The war in Ukraine is creating huge strains in China's relations with the US and the EU. This is because the war has pushed China into closer alignment with Russia, Iran and DPRK. /1 @CER_EU
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    The country is divided whether or not we have a 2nd referendum. I'd rather live in a divided country inside the EU than a divided country outside. One reason being that inside we'd have more growth and so more money to spend on helping disadvantaged communities. @CER_EU
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    Replying to @CER_Grant
    When I was in BXL 2 weeks ago, meeting EU & govt officials, I was told that he was personally responsible for the dire state of EU-UK relations; when @michaelgove had played a role, more diplomatically, solutions had been in sight. Some of those I spoke to really hated Frost. /2
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    My take-away from a day of meetings in Brussels: The issue of the Irish border is much more likely to scupper a deal on Brexit in December than money or citizens' rights. 'There is no solution that can satisfy IRE and UK', says one EU ambassador. @CER_EU