user avatar
Ben Zaranko
@BenZaranko
Economics Editor, @ObserverUK
London, England
benzaranko.com
Joined June 2011
684
Following
9,901
Followers
Posts
  • Pinned
    user avatar
    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko
    Feb 19
    Here it is, my magnum opus: an analysis of what’s wrong with the UK’s approach to fiscal policy (under this and previous governments), and a proposal for what an alternative to pass-fail fiscal rules could look like. I’ll follow up with a longer thread later.
    user avatar
    Institute for Fiscal Studies
    @TheIFS
    Feb 19
    NEW: The UK’s approach to fiscal policy needs a rethink. Instead of pass–fail fiscal rules and the consequent fixation on ‘fiscal headroom’, @BenZaranko’s new report argues that the UK would be better served by a new framework, based around a set of ‘fiscal traffic lights’: ⬇️
    27K
  • user avatar
    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko
    Dec 14, 2022
    The NHS has more funding and more staff than it had pre-pandemic. At the same time, across most types of care, the NHS is treating fewer patients than it was pre-Covid and is clearly struggling heading into the winter. What's going on? A thread, based on new @TheIFS research 🧵
  • user avatar
    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko
    Sep 21, 2022
    The Chancellor is expected to announce a large package of permanent tax cuts on Friday without a new set of forecasts from the OBR. This is disappointing. So, in the absence of official scrutiny from the OBR, we @TheIFS have stepped into the breach. 🧵
  • user avatar
    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko
    Jul 29, 2024
    Need to see the detail, but I think Rachel Reeves has grounds to be cross. The in-year funding pressures do genuinely appear to be greater than could be discerned from outside. The £9bn contingency ‘reserve’ has seemingly been spent several times over. It’s a mess.
    422K
  • user avatar
    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko
    Dec 9, 2022
    I don't think this number is accurate. At best, it paints an incomplete picture. A quick on why 🧵
    user avatar
    BBC Politics
    BBC News (UK)
    @BBCPolitics
    Dec 9, 2022
    "What I'm not going to do is ask ordinary families up and down the country to pay an extra £1,000 a year to meet the pay demands of the union bosses" PM Rishi Sunak says he's looking at "tough new laws" to minimise strike disruption bbc.in/3uA8mmz
    00:00
  • user avatar
    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko
    Mar 20, 2023
    This is interesting, on the impacts of starting child benefit payments in pregnancy rather than at birth. Sending pregnant mothers in the UK three months' worth (~£190) in the third trimester led to 1) higher average birth weight 2) fewer babies being born prematurely.
    329K
  • user avatar
    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko
    Nov 15, 2022
    Replying to @BenZaranko
    Here's a puzzle: NHS spending in England this year is ~12% higher in real terms than in 2019/20. There are 13% more doctors (incl. 10% more consultants) than in 2019, 11% more nurses, and 10% more clinical support staff. Yet the NHS is treating fewer people from the waiting list.
  • user avatar
    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko
    Apr 23, 2024
    It's only a "£75 billion increase" over 6 years if you assume that spending would otherwise have been frozen in cash terms for 6 years - i.e. only if the government was, until today, planning to breach its NATO commitments. This is such an unhelpful way to present the figures.
    user avatar
    HM Treasury
    @hmtreasury
    Apr 23, 2024
    NEWS: UK set to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030 - an increase of £75 billion. Chief Secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott visited Wellington Barracks in Westminster today to explain what this means.
    00:00
    208K
  • user avatar
    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko
    Jun 20, 2022
    A useful stat to bear in mind while the pay of public sector workers is in the news. In April 2022, average pay in the private sector was 4.3% higher than in January 2010, after adjusting for inflation. That's pretty poor. But in the public sector, it was 4.3% LOWER.
  • user avatar
    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko
    Nov 10, 2022
    With strikes on the horizon, here's a bit of context on what's been happening to average nurse pay in England. Since 2010, nurses' pay (the purple line) has lagged behind inflation, and behind average pay growth in both the public and private sectors.
  • user avatar
    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko
    Feb 7, 2024
    Labour's green investment plans were the only bit of clear daylight between the two major parties on tax and spend. Looks increasingly like we'll have a Ford Model T election: voters can have any fiscal policy they want, as long as it's existing government policy...
    user avatar
    BBC News (UK)
    @BBCNews
    Feb 7, 2024
    Labour ditches £28bn green investment pledge bbc.in/3OyYfZP
    128K
  • user avatar
    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko
    Apr 23, 2024
    Replying to @BenZaranko
    To get the £75 billion number, the government has assumed a baseline with spending frozen in cash terms and then added up all of the differences. If you instead assume a baseline of spending frozen as a % GDP, it's an extra £20 billion over 6 years. Details here.
    487K
  • user avatar
    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko
    Nov 15, 2022
    The NHS waiting list in England (the ‘backlog’) now stands at 7.1 million, 60% higher than pre-pandemic. This backlog is still growing month on month. Why? And what would it take for it to start falling? Brief 🧵 based on new analysis out today: ifs.org.uk/articles/nhs-n…
  • user avatar
    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko
    Sep 21, 2022
    Replying to @BenZaranko
    In short, the government is planning a substantial package of permanent tax cuts that will mean a sharp and sustained increase in borrowing, just as borrowing becomes more expensive, in a gamble on growth that may not pay off. You can't assume your way to fiscal sustainability.