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Inside look of our book launch "How To Listen When Market's Speak" at the Harvard Club NYC #bestsellers #markets #NYC #WallStreet
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The Bear Traps Report
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The Bear Traps Report
@BearTrapsReport
Founded in 2010 by @convertbond - Live institutional client chat on Bloomberg. Open source, mosaic investment research platform now in 23+ countries.
- The Most Compelling Live Chat on the Street - Institutional Investors, join us on Bloomberg. Since 2010, clients in 23 different countries. A meaningful value add.
- In 2010, the Bank of Japan held 2% of the country’s ETF assets, today it’s a colossal 78%.
- The Tech vs. Energy Ratio is nearing dot-com bubble highs...
- Berkshire Hathaway has outperformed the Nasdaq by 14% over the last month. This is the first time this has happened since 2010. Rotation: Tech into Value.
- The Price to Sales Ratio in the S&P 500 (2.4x) is the highest in Bloomberg data history (1990).
- Oil Price vs US Oil Rig Count Sep 21': $75 vs 421 Sep 18': $75 vs 865 Nov 14': $75 vs 1580 ESG has purged capital investment from the oil patch, the ability of the US to react to an energy crisis has been dramatically reduced. Now, we must beg the Kingdom (OPEC) for assistance.
- Since 1995, here is the top 10 worst advance-decline days when the S&P 500 still closed positive. Thursday was the 3rd lowest decline with -193 and Tuesday was #7. Not a good sign when breadth is this weak...
- Coal Stocks in 2021 $BTU +627% $ARLP +113% $ARCH +96% $TECK +40% *Contact us for our ESG backfire basket here: thebeartrapsreport.com
- For only the 12th time since 1995, the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high on Friday while the VIX Volatility Index was 1 point higher. If the market were to close here, it would be the 13th time...
- The Nasdaq 100 is over-extended above the upper bollinger band on a monthly chart. The amount NDX is above the monthly bollinger band is only on par with March 2000 and February 2020.
- The S&P 500's EV/EBITDA (11.41x next years earnings) is the highest since December 2007
- Since 1970, the S&P 500's forward returns have been very weak after the US ISM Manufacturing goes above 64. *The March ISM came in at 64.7
- The New York Fed's Recession Probability has only been higher 3 times in the last 35 years... Each of these 3 prior scenarios were followed by a recession within 6 months.
