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Atreides Management, LP
159 posts
Atreides Management, LP
@Atreidesmgmt
Investment firm. CIO @gavinsbaker. Crossover strategy. We want to help exceptional teams across consumer and technology. No investment advice.
- 1) Many investment firms ask their analysts to develop an "investment thesis." A thesis is "a theory that is put forward as a premise to be maintained or proved." An "investment hypothesis" is superior to an "investment thesis." Subtle, but powerful distinction.
- 1) “Barriers to entry on the internet are low, but barriers to scale are high.” - A team member who wishes to remain anonymous.
- The “Inelastic Market Hypothesis” from ERP. Per some academic research, $1 of equity inflows drives $5 of incremental equity market value and 2/3 of the markets return over the last year can be attributed to inflows, higher than normal. Thought provoking as always from ERP.
- The rise of TikTok amongst over 18 year olds. Now the dominant social network by time spent. (Panel is only 18 years old and over) Via BF at BAML.
- 1) Good note from MS on Starlink. 1740 satellites, 275k downloads, 90k users in 12 countries and 500k orders. Average download speeds in Q2 were 100 Mbps, up from 66 Mbps in Q1. National median is 115 Mbps for fixed broadband in the United States and 20 Mbps for satellite.
- 1) “The negative case is always more articulate, it’s always more intelligent, it’s always more compelling because it looks at the now. But the market looks ahead.” - Laszlo Birinyi (Via AC at MS)
- 1) Yes, there is double ordering in semis. There always is when capacity is tight. The fact that buffer inventory must equal lead times drives inventory cycles. Double ordering is how they end. However, it also feels like we are in the first true capacity cycle in decades.
- The fact that Starship is likely to be able to carry a greater than 100 metric ton payload to orbit for a variable cost of $2m is going to have a significant impact on many different industries. It will also make life *very* difficult for every other rocket company.
- Recommended reading for anyone interested in semiconductors.
- 1) “It is far better to focus on what really matters, rather than succumbing to the siren call of Wall Street’s many noise peddlers. We would be far better off analyzing the five things we really need to know about an investment,..."
- 1) Thesis driven venture investors generally miss the biggest outcomes. Not many thesis driven investors were looking to fund: - a rocket company in 2002 - an EV company in 2003 - an app that let you stay in a strangers house in 2008 - an Alibaba competitor in 2015
- 1) Ethereum 2.0, which shifts Ethereum from proof of work to proof of stake, might be the most important variable for the semiconductor cycle over the next 12 months given the implications for mining demand.
- Replying to @Atreidesmgmt2) It is easy to start a social network, an e-commerce co, a ride-sharing service, a delivery service, a streaming service, a marketplace; i.e. any internet business model, but really hard to reach scale in all of them. And scale is much more important online than offline.
