Anna Wong
2,147 posts
Anna Wong
@AnnaEconomist
Chief US Economist, Bloomberg LP @economics. Former Fed/CEA/US Treasury, PhD @uchi_economics BA @UCberkeley. All opinions are my own.
Joined May 2022
- I think Jay Powell was not being dovish today, and this is the sort of speeches that people will realize how hawkish it is with time to digest. And this kind of knee jerk reaction, only to be reversed later, had happened before.
- BTW. There's one shop that basically nailed today's jobs report
- We calculated that post Trump “put” today, the tariff mix is actually worse —China exports more consumer goods to US than other countries, so boosting that (to 125%) relative to others will boost the hit to consumption goods.
- Out of all the news headlines that came out this weekend, this is the most shocking .
- My guess for next version of Trump pivot: trade deal with Japan announced tomorrow.
- So there is a fertilizer company in Tampa whose facilities is half of US production capacity and 12% of global supply. They are in the path of Milton.
- Now Bessent gave an explanation for Trump’s surprising approval of Fed rate pause over the weekend—could it be that Trump actually have eyes on bringing down the term premium?! It raises the tantalizing possibility that Trump is on board with and (*gasp) actually willing to
- The massive downward revisions (-258k) are puzzling. Even as someone who long believes payrolls are overstated by massive amount, these downward revisions are anormay large outside of benchmark month or weather related events. The downward revision are largest for state and
- There was various media stories about potential tariff cut on Chinese goods after the trade talks. Connecting the various dots—including shipping data— I arrive at a similar conclusion (before I saw those stories). Specifically, there appears to be a good chance tariffs on
- Since when was Japan's inflation higher than US inflation? NOW. Japan's headline CPI is 4% vs. US' 3%. H/T Bloomberg Economics' Japan Economist, Taro Kimura.
- This chart is pretty striking. Shows the share of new 90 day delinquencies citing unemployment for reason of delinquency of FHA single family loan. H/t gopal sharath Source: hud.gov
