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Be careful, there are many impersonating accounts pretending to be me and trying to scam people with crypto products. It is not me. I do not sell crypto products! Those accounts keep on being closed down, but new ones pop up all the time.
Pierre Andurand 🇺🇦🇫🇷🇪🇺🕊️
3,330 posts
Pierre Andurand 🇺🇦🇫🇷🇪🇺🕊️
@AndurandPierre
Hedge Fund manager specialized in commodities. GLORY_WS co-founder and chairman. Life long learner. 7 MSc. Oxford, Columbia, LSE, JHU, INSA and HEC alumnus
Joined June 2014
- Replying to @elonmuskA few facts on Crimea: Russian empire colonized it in 1783, after colonizing Ukraine. In 1944, Stalin ordered the mass deportation of over 400,000 Tatars, 46% dying within 2 years. By Stalin's death in 1953, Khrushchev insisted that Ukraine accept Crimea and take care of it, as
- Replying to @AndurandPierre and @elonmuskit was lacking water, electricity and infrastructure, and Russian settlers were very unhappy. Ukraine then invested $100bil into Crimea, which came from Ukraine's budget. It was not a gift. Russia agreed to the borders of Ukraine including Crimea in Dec 1991.
- The oil futures market is completely broken. Moving down $10 in a day for no apparent reason
- A few high level thoughts about how Europe can deal without Russian gas for the next 2-3 years: Russian natural gas supply to Europe was responsible for 30% of European demand in 2021 (103bcma vs 342). Half of that is replaced by LNG imports (from 51 to 101bcma 2021-2023) 1/6
- How high are crude oil prices really? Using inflation implied from global GDP deflator: High of $147 in 2008 is equivalent to $222 today Average Brent price since 2008 to today inflation adjusted: $96.3 2011 average Brent price inflation adjusted to today: $149.6
- Brent crude oil with inflation adjusted chart. The price action in 2022 reminded me of 2006. And fundamentally I think that the price path in 2023 might look like 2007. We will know soon enough I guess. Good luck to all in 2023!
- What would a full China reopening mean for world oil demand growth? Sometimes, I feel like it is important to zoom out in order to see the forest from the trees. Starting with a chart on oil demand since 1983, we can see that it has closely followed a trend line 1/6
- Many people asked me if the Hamas attacks on Israel will have an impact on oil prices. As the Levant is not a large oil producing region, it is unlikely to impact oil supply in the short term. And therefore one should not expect a large oil price spike in the coming days. But it
- Oil is trading as if it will end the year at $30/bl. I don’t get that bearishness
- I think the CME might have no other choice but to close out the ETFs positions. It cannot take the risk to have negative prices before the roll and be on the hook. This shock is real. Be very careful out there. We are going to hear about crazy losses in the days and weeks to come
- So far the Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought MORE oil to the market. The amount released by strategic reserves around the world is more than russian export or production losses. 1/5
