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The deepening of 🇨🇳🇷🇺 alignment is one of the most consequential geopolitical outcomes of Russia's war against Ukraine. How so, and why is this important? I wrote about it in a new essay for @ForeignAffairs. Some key takeaways in a🧵1/20
Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士
6,787 posts
Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士
@AlexGabuev
Joined January 2015
- 🧵Two weeks ago, as Vladimir Putin was declaring his vicious war on Ukraine, he called the West an "Empire of Lies." In fact, the Kremlin's disastrous move was itself rooted in lies, misconceptions and giant lapses of expertise & intelligence. 1/
- 🧵🇨🇳🇷🇺 Does China distance itself from Russia because of war against Ukraine? A terrific @FT piece helps to understand how Beijing wants its policy towards Moscow to be seen in Western capitals. Spoiler alert: the real policy might be very different. Let me help to unpack it. 1/
- Replying to @AlexGabuev15/ Clandestine nature of Putin's decision-making on national security and deplorable state of Russian expertise on Ukraine were among factors contributing to ruinous decision to start this ugly war - a tragedy for Ukraine, and a catastrophe for Russia.
- 🧵 Russia's requests for some types of 🇨🇳 military hardware look plausible. However, most likely the recent communication is part of an ongoing negotiation process that precedes Putin's invasion in Ukraine, not 🇷🇺 ask for an emergency military resupply for this war 1/
- Replying to @AlexGabuev2/ Historians will know more about the decision-making process behind the tragic events. To date, this essay by @andrewsweiss & @eugene_rumer best captures Putin's motivation for going into this war. Unfortunately, it turned out to be prophetic.
- Replying to @AlexGabuev3/ War preparation was conducted in high secrecy in order to avoid leaks. Instead of a rigorous interagency process, the whole war planning was reduced to a clandestine operation developed by just a handful of people in uniform and the president himself.
- Replying to @AlexGabuev3a/ Side note: given the secrecy, accuracy of 🇺🇸 intelligence community's predictions (even the public part of it spread through media and official statements) deserves credit, and explains why USG was so reluctant to share sensitive details that could endanger sources & methods.
- 🫓🌽🚢THREAD Just a few weeks ago, it seemed that the Kremlin is determined to stick on its blockade of Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea, so today's Istanbul grain deal is an important about-face. What might have changed Putin's calculus, and is he sincere? Some brief thoughts.
- 🚢🌽💥 THREAD Russia officially suspends the Istanbul grain deal for indefinite time. The Kremlin is desperately trying to put more pressure on Kyiv and the Western coalition supporting Ukraine. However, this audacious attempt to gain leverage may backfire against Moscow. 1/
- Replying to @AlexGabuev10/ The other element of Putin calamitous decision to go to war was a long-standing paradox of the Russian foreign policy: the Kremlin has a more nuanced understanding of China or the Arab World than of its closest neighbors in the post-Soviet space, especially Ukraine.
- Replying to @AlexGabuev11/ The reasons are many. To start with, the Russian Empire has never perceived Ukraine as a "colony," and thus has never developed a discipline to study Ukraine as "the Other." When Putin wrote that Russians and Ukrainians are "one people," he actually meant it.
- Replying to @AlexGabuev4/ It looks like even during the planning of the military campaign, there weren't enough generals able to ask "what if" questions that could help to do serious contingency planning and get ready for other scenarios than just a speedy victory of the Russian troops.
- Replying to @AlexGabuev5/ Needless to say, the preparation to the Western sanctions response was even more flawed since Putin has kept his economic team entirely in the dark. This @FT piece by @maxseddon & @polinaivanovva accurately captures relaxed mood before the invasion.
