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Adam Mancini
@AdamMancini4
Full-Time Futures Trader ES intraday, also swing trade ETFs 2-7 day holds. Fully transparent approach. Posts for my notes only!
Canada
Joined May 2016
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    Pro traders aren't any better at "predicting" where the market will go than a hobby trader, and its not the job. The difference is all in execution: Finding lvls, protecting profits once available, stopping out & adjusting when wrong, and consistant loss size control. Focus there
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    All my trading is based on 3 simple setups: 1) Bull and bear flags (basing patterns) 2) Fake breakdowns (trendline or level is lost then recaptured - buy/sell the recapture) 3) Buy rising trendlines, sell falling ones Takes years to "master", but provides a great foundation
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    My trading improved dramatically when I stopped focusing on the news, stopped focusing on macro analysis, stopped focusing on other peoples opinions, and just focused exclusively on a few simple price setups day in and day out. This kind of simplicity is hard to grasp at first
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    After trading nearly 20 years, I've noticed a deep correlation between simplicity & profitability. When I started, I traded 10 markets, many setups, 5 indicators; & net lost. Year by year it shrank (& P&L grew) to now where I trade 1 market, mostly 1 setup, 1 indicator. Less=more
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    The more years I spend trading, the less often I trade, and this directly translates into better performance. High quality patterns are rare by definition - to be able to sit through market ups & downs and do absolutely nothing until they appear is one of the most valuable skills
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    When looking at a chart, the #1 thing I look for is consolidations. When a market is rapidly rising/falling I usually ignore it Consolidations precede the most explosive moves-allowing entry *before* the crowd- and are the basis of the strongest chart patterns (flags, triangles)
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    Its very common for new traders (myself included starting) to try to and catch the big "home run" move only to see a nice gain evaporate. My profit improved dramatically when I stopped trying. If I can catch 20 points out of a 60 point run I am ecstatic: small, steady wins add up
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    The longer I trade the less I care about things that aren't the price chart. I used to track intermarket correlations, read macro reports, watch news etc. Now, my analysis is 100% opening the chart, drawing lvls, closing it at day end & my results have never been more consistent
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    If I were told I could only trade 1 pattern, it would be without hesitation bull and bear flags. These are fairly simple, high odds, high risk/reward patterns that capitalize on the fundamental feature of all trending markets to pause and "collect themselves" before resuming
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    It took me long time to realize that profitability means being a specialist. Starting off I was trading many markets, many setups, many trades daily &losing. Focusing on 1 market, mastering a couple setups & waiting patiently on them for 1-3 quality trades daily was game changer
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    The skill that took my trading to the next level had nothing to do with technical analysis. It was learning to take losses robotically, no questions asked, and no loosening stops.Doesnt matter if I think it will recover or if its my 5th loss in row. Profits improved dramatically
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    Traders of all levels will have a good % of trades that are totally unnecessary capital drainers: "Boredom" trades, impulse trades to avenge a loss, low conviction trades, no setup 50/50 trades, FOMO trades. For me, just identifying & reducing these is a powerful profit booster
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    The important question isnt "where is price going" - this is fortune telling & nobody knows. The important questions are "what's the upside setup", "whats the downside setup" and "what are my triggers, stops, and targets for each". This is a trader mindset and much more useful
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    I've found unequivocally the less I trade, the more I make; going from major overtrading as a beginner, to 1-3 trades max a day now was a huge profit boost. Quality trades are by definition rare. 80% of profitability is avoiding the dozens of mediocre, "no edge" setups each day