I am traveling for business this week. And so are many others! According to @TripActions there's been a surge in business travel bookings since August. More to go in 2022. #travelisback
Anastasia Amoroso
517 posts
Anastasia Amoroso
@AAmoroso_1
Chief Investment Strategist at Partners Group. Private Markets. Views and opinions are my own.
New York City
Joined October 2012
- Crypto conferences are better with friends, great to see you @LizYoungStrat @StocktonKatie at @consensus2022 !
- SPX looks set to close right around 100-day moving average. And stocks are looking oversold. China risks are not systemic to U.S. stocks, I see this pullback as a buying opportunity.
- I can't conclude that the low we’ve seen is “the” low. It’s ok to nibble now but it’s also ok to give up some potential upside to get more clarity first. To call a bottom, we'd need to see de-escalation + better growth outlook. Growth is being revised down instead.
- Not calling market bottom (until economic data troughs, inflation eases and/or Fed pauses), but historically long-term investors benefited from buying stocks when it feels terrible to do so.👇
- Nvidia’s earnings report is a perfect illustration of why the multi-year potential of AI is *not* yet priced into the stocks - analyst estimates tend to be conservative and rise when companies provide guidance and visibility. We would buy the dips in AI beneficiary stocks. Thank
00:00 - There is now a 78% chance of a first rate hike in March. SPX closed down -1.6%, led by Tech down -3.1%. History suggests that on average the period of 3 mo. before and 3 mo. after the 1st rate hike can be choppy but market returns (incl. Tech) were positive 12 months after.
- Powell sparked a rally (again) with a very balanced approach & a chance for "soft-ish landing". Add low positioning, extreme bearishness, resumption of buybacks and we are likely looking at a near-term rally. I'd be a buyer of oversold tech stocks here, as highlighted last week.
- It's a battle of top-down macro sellers vs bottoms-up fundamental buyers in the Nasdaq right now. Valuations broadly are still a concern (4-5x turns above pre-pandemic levels) but positioning in growth vs value stocks has corrected massively.
- The use case of #BTC is being validated as we speak - ability to transfer value quickly and reliably when governments are not reliable and when traditional payment rails are not an option.
- Hello from Uruguay by the way! Here to speak at a conference this week on Fed/rates/market outlook, but most concerns right now are squarely about Russia/Ukraine.
