Pinned
i wrote about skill singularity, a framework to strategically hunt for outliers. it forms the foundation for my future series on select 2026 draft prospects.
link below, thoughts welcome.
- LSU freshman Alex Fudge has an insane 5.6% block rate & 5.5% steal rate. Only Matisse Thybulle has reached those benchmarks. Fudge, Thybulle, and Gary Payton II are the only high-major players w/ block rate > 4% & steal rate > 5%. @iam_AlexFudge is 6'8 & doesn't turn 19 til May
- Only 8 freshmen since 2008 meet these criteria: FT% > 75 usage% > 22 block% > 0.5 steal% > 2 at-rim FG% > 62.5 at-rim unassisted% > 60 1) Anthony Edwards 2) Bradley Beal 3) Jayson Tatum 4) John Wall 5) CJ McCollum 6) Josh Christopher 7) Jalen Suggs
- outlier high predraft free throw % is prolly the most underrated star signal. part of this is linear bias: we default to thinking that 80% to 85% is the same jump as 70% to 75%. in reality, 80% to 85% FT represents a leap from the 80th percentile to the 96th percentile!
- this is a jonathan mogbo tweet. drafted prospects with WS > 7ft and assist rate > 20%: kyle anderson scottie barnes shake milton trayce jd draymond green jalen williams greg monroe dalen terry herb jones wendell moore nikola jovic sandro mamu jalen johnson dwight powell
- this is what keeps me up about ryan kalkbrenner (🧵) the fundamental star/bust signals for centers are passing, finishing, & foul rate to verify, see all drafted centers since 1978 with: AST/40 > 1 2P > 60% BLK/FL > 1.5 kalk easily qualified as a sophomore. 3 times overall.
- asa newell, noah penda, and noa essengue are questionable shooters, and calling them wings reflects incongruence between label and skillset what do they offer right now, and what areas will define their trajectory? I explore this in a series of short-form draft reports below:
- in a league obsessed with wings and ball-handling SFs, it blows my mind that okc won a chip without a single player listed at 6'7 or 6'8. not a single traditionally-sized SF in sight. presti is different.
- this is my longform attempt to defend Zach Edey 10k words on abstract draft philosophy, the reduction of production, and a radical re-envisioning of the most misunderstood prospect in the 2024 NBA DraftZach Edey is the most polarizing player in the entire draft. @100guaranteed takes on the Edey enigma, systematically refuting the 10 most common arguments against the talented big. In defense of Zach Edey, for skeptics. 🔗theswishtheory.com/2024-nba-draft…
- the most important precocious skill integration is oreb-assist-stocks this is the ultimate functional athleticism x feel proxy, a synthesis of skills that exponentially raises ceiling beyond perception of raw box stats/bpm lots and lots of instructive developmental stories here
- to commemorate the start of college basketball, this is my informal, risk-seeking 2026 preseason draft board. i have also conducted a brief writeup justifying my ranking of the top 14 players. please see the link below. looking forward to a diversity of opinions and questions.
- Dyson Daniels needs more draft hype. The 6'6 wing has a 2% block rate, 2.8% steal rate, & 87 FT% Since 2008, 3 high-major freshman have had an assist% >20, block% >1.5 & FT% >80: 1. SGA 2. Cade 3. Jaden Springer @DysonDaniels is on pace to match despite playing in the G-League!
00:00
