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Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, China MANPADs, US Hormuz Blockade)
Examining the latest developments in the US-Israel Iran war, including reports of covert Chinese arms shipments to Iran and the risks involved in President Trump’s threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
Latest Stories
Narrative at Arms: Framing, Discourse, and Media Control in the Iran War
The Iran war raises fundamental questions about who has the authority to shape a story and how much control anyone should have over wartime information in a democratic society.
Distributed Risk: Open-Source Software as Strategic Infrastructure
The 2024 XZ incident illustrates how open-source software (OSS) has become strategic infrastructure in the global economy, opening up new strategic vulnerabilities and new pathways to geopolitical leverage.
Project Vault and the New Era of US Strategic Mineral Stockpiling
President Trump’s ‘Project Vault’ echoes strategic concerns that gave rise to the National Defense Stockpile during the Cold War era, but this new US critical mineral stockpiling effort must navigate a profoundly different policy context and global market.
Crisis in Hormuz Exposes Fragility of the Rules-Based Order
The Hormuz crisis is pushing the global system to the brink, exposing not only geopolitical fault lines but the moral contradictions embedded in the international order itself.
Strategic Balancing or Strategic Drift? Egypt in a Reordered Middle East
Upheavals in the longstanding security architecture of the Middle East are causing Egypt to rethink its longstanding policy of strategic balancing and possibly giving way to a new ‘Sunni Axis’ with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan.
Italy Opts for Turkey’s Bayraktar TB3 for First Carrier Launched Drones
Italy’s acquisition of the Bayraktar TB3 represents new momentum toward continental strategic autonomy while also highlighting failures in the EU’s internal push for drone development.
Deficits Risk Sidelining Austria from EU Geopolitical Strategy
If Vienna fails to restore its fiscal credibility, it risks becoming a “rule taker” rather than a rule maker at a time when Europe faces multiple geopolitical challenges.
Oil Dependency in Wartime: Malaysia and the Iran War
Malaysia faces existential supply chain disruptions and new fiscal pressures amid the Iran war, and its struggle is hardly exceptional in South Asia.
Unstable Truce: Short- and Long-term Risks to the Iran Ceasefire
The Iran ceasefire pulled the global economy back from the brink, but the reprieve may not last for long.
Sovereign Ecosystems: How Distributed Authority Is Rewiring Global Order
From the Sahel to Iraq, authority is produced through negotiation among distributed actors rather than imposed by centralized institutions. US diplomacy continues to ignore these sovereign ecosystems at its own peril.
Iran Is Not Rising. We Are Misreading It
Iran has demonstrated an ability to operate across a broad regional landscape and to absorb external pressure, but this should not be conflated with the emergence of a stable, rising global power.
Canada Looks to Join Global Combat Air Program
Canada’s reported engagement with the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) would strike a balance between developing domestic defense industries while keeping F-35 procurement intact.
Belarus Profits as Iran War Upends Fertilizer Markets
The rehabilitation of Belarusian potash illustrates how supply chain shocks from the Iran war are rippling across wider US diplomatic strategy.
Is Elite Information War Hollowing Out the Russian State?
The widening gap between statement and reality goes beyond what we’ve come to expect from Russian propaganda. Rather, it suggests a stunted information environment surrounding President Putin and mounting elite struggles across the Russian state.
Who Controls the Strait? The Question Mahan Never Asked
Iran's selective passage list in the Strait of Hormuz reveals a logic that Alfred Thayer Mahan's framework cannot explain — but a ninth-century Islamic jurist anticipated with precision.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, NATO Infighting, Economic Fallout)
Examining the latest developments in the US-Israel Iran war; how President Trump’s latest attacks on NATO allies are producing a new response; and mounting global economic fallout from supply chain disruptions in the Persian Gulf.
The Geoeconomic Angle of the Third Gulf War
In the heartland of ancient Persia, the lines in the sand of West Asia’s geoeconomic map are being redrawn.
The Strait of Hormuz and the Power of Chokepoints
The security of a few narrow waterways underpins much of the global economy, and one of them has effectively been closed.
Iran Is Under Pressure, But Change Will Come from Within
Political change in Iran is likely to be driven primarily by internal actors, if it happens at all.
The Rise and Fall of the US Strategic Mineral Stockpile
Examining the cycle of accumulation, complacency, and disposal that characterized US strategic mineral stockpiling through the 20th century.
