PECOTA 2026: Teams PECOTA Likes$
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Image credit: © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
The best projections, relative to expectations. And also, the best projection period.
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Download the 2026 PECOTA Percentiles spreadsheet (Premium or super-premium membership required.)
PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is BP’s proprietary system that projects player and team performance
PECOTA is a system that takes a player’s past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. It looks at all of the numbers, and all the numbers that make up the numbers, to see which players are more likely to repeat their success and which ones benefited from good fortune.
Download the 2026 PECOTA Percentiles spreadsheet (Super-Premium or Premium membership required.)
PECOTA Release Notes
Mar 26, 2026
Previous years’ PECOTA Spreadsheets (login for access or upgrade subscription)
The best projections, relative to expectations. And also, the best projection period.
MLB's standardization of minor-league technology could have effects in future years.
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We hear that "wrong, but confidently so" is all the rage these days.
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Why PECOTA still matters, after all these years.
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Taking stock of the best of the unsigned.
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You can't bank on the best-case scenario, but you can dream on it.
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Perhaps the hot new trend will be "not playing through injuries."
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Honoring this year's class.
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Looking at what PECOTA thinks of some names you might be seeing by Opening Day
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Past is prologue, albeit hopefully not to the predictive power of this piece.
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PECOTA is good, but there's one element to the 2026 season it can't project.
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There's still a suspicious amount of starting pitching talent out there on the market.
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It’s nothing personal. Well, actually, it is. But let’s say it’s not.
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There are almost as many ways to use PECOTA as projections in it, but here are my five favorite.
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Honoring this year's class.
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