Lakers Box Score Breakdown

The 2023-2024 Boston Celtics were one of three teams in the past 25 years to win a championship without one of the former MVPs listed below (along with the 2019 Raptors and 2004 Pistons). The Celtics’ didn’t have a player who has finished higher than 4th in MVP voting (Jayson Tatum), most similar to the 2004 Pistons who didn’t have a player who finished higher than 5th in MVP voting (Chauncey Billups). So having one of these guys makes a team’s path to a championship much more straight-forward. Every MVP that has won a championship on this list did so within 4 years of winning their first MVP award. Some MVPs are lucky enough to win a title the same year as their first MVP season (Stephen Curry, Shaquille O’Neal). But most have to wait a year (Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan), or two (Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo), or three (Kevin Durant, LeBron James), or four (Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki). And some of course never get a chance to win a championship (Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, Derrick Rose, and most likely Russell Westbrook and James Harden). That leaves Joel Embiid as the MVP winner with the best shot at winning a championship before his window closes. Let’s take a look back at how deep the playoff runs were each year for every MVP since 2000.

It’s possible that Jokic could’ve gotten started winning titles sooner, were it not for the season ending injury to Jamal Murray that derailed playoff runs in both 2021 and 2022. After getting his pick-and-roll partner back in 2023, Jokic won his first title and Finals MVP, two years after winning his first regular season MVP award.

This coming season may be Joel Embiid’s best shot at a title, with the newly acquired Paul George coming aboard and rising star Tyrese Maxey returning. 2019 was probably the next best shot, with the Sixers eliminated by Kawhi Leonard’s series ending buzzer beater.

The championship window appears to still be open for Giannis, as he will likely enter this season hungry for another title having exited in the first round of the playoffs each of the last two seasons while missing games due to injury. His first championship and Finals MVP in 2021 came in the season following back to back regular season MVP awards in 2019 and 2020. 2022’s bid at defending the title ended with All-Star Khris Middleton missing due to injury.

While Harden’s deepest playoff run came while playing in a 6th man role for the Thunder in 2012, his best chance to lead his team to a title was likely in 2018 when the Rockets fell short in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals (minus an injured Chris Paul) against the Warriors (led by Kevin Durant and Steph Curry). Harden’s lone postseason with the Nets in 2021 was possibly the next best shot, with the historically great offensive trio of Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving looking like frontrunners before injuries hit. Harden is the only player on this list besides Tim Duncan to make the playoffs every year of his career. Harden’s legacy could have been so much different had the Rockets found a way to get past the Warriors in 2018 or 2019.

Westbrook’s MVP season in 2016-17 came on a team that was no longer a true contender to win a title after the departure of Kevin Durant to the Warriors in the 2016 offseason. The 2016 Conference Finals loss to those same Warriors in which the Thunder blew a 3-1 lead is one of the biggest what-if’s for both Westbrook and Durant. The young Thunder squads of 2011 and 2012 likely overachieved by making such deep playoff runs so soon.

If there was any doubt about Curry’s greatness after his run of five straight Finals appearances from 2015-2019, his 2022 Finals MVP and championship a full 7 years after winning his first regular season MVP has almost certainly put that argument to bed. He somehow didn’t win a Finals MVP before that (he’d have my vote in 2015 over Andre Iguodala). His Finals stats in 2017 and 2018 would have been good enough for a Finals MVP if the next guy on this list were not also on the team.

Kevin Durant probably doesn’t get enough credit for winning back to back titles and Finals MVPs with the Warriors in 2017 and 2018. He’s gotten more than enough flack for his decision to leave a Western Conference Finals squad in free agency for the team responsible for eliminating that squad in the previous year’s playoffs. His go ahead pullup 3-pointer in the final minutes of Game 3 of the 2017 Finals is one of the biggest shots in Finals history. His early career playoff runs with the Thunder alongside Westbrook (and Harden from 2010-2012) always came up just a bit short, so maybe wanting to play a different brand of basketball was warranted. Injuries to Westbrook in 2013 and Durant in 2015 also robbed the Thunder of two prime years of contention. In his later years, the 2021 playoff performance the first year back after a torn achilles (49 points in Game 5, 48 points in Game 7 of the Conference Semis) changed my opinion about his place among the all-time greats.

After back-to-back regular season MVPs in 2009 and 2010 with Cleveland failed to result in a title, LeBron seemed ready to take home his first with the Heat the following season. But the Mavs’ late comeback in Game 2 of the 2011 Finals (behind former MVP Dirk Nowitzki, whose championship window looked like it might be closing) turned the series and the legacy conversations around both LeBron and Dirk. LeBron’s first title in 2012 came a few years later than he may have hoped (and took one from a young Thunder squad with 3 future MVPs who were not quite ready). 2013’s title hopes were almost lost in Game 6 before Ray Allen’s iconic game-tying 3 to send the game to overtime (and LeBron’s 3 the previous possession to keep the Heat within striking distance). 2014 was not all that close with the Spurs proving to be the better team despite not having the best player. 2015 could have been a title year if Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love had not gotten injured. 2016 could easily have not been a title year if Draymond Green doesn’t get suspended for Game 5 of the Finals. While the 4-1 gentlemen’s sweep in the 2017 Finals doesn’t look all that close, what if Durant doesn’t hit the go ahead shot in Game 3 and the Cavs had found a way to win and pull the series to 2-1 instead of going down 3-0? And what if in 2018 the Cavs steal Game 1 of the Finals? (But alas, a George Hill missed free throw here, a JR Smith blunder there, a wasted 51 point masterpiece by LeBron). 2020’s Finals saw injury luck favor LeBron’s Lakers as Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic both missed games and were limited due to injury. So many what-if’s, add it all up and LeBron is left with a 4-6 Finals record that will never look quite as pristine as MJ’s perfect 6-0.

Derrick Rose’s deepest playoff run came during his MVP season in 2011 and ended at the hands of the Miami Heat’s newly formed big 3 led by LeBron James. With the Bulls poised to make another deep playoff run the following year, Rose’s season ending injury in 2012 would change the trajectory of both the season and his career and keep him from ever seriously competing for titles.

Kobe finished top 12 in MVP voting from 2000 to 2002 during his first three championship runs where Shaq won Finals MVP each season. Multiple MVP candidates on the same team is how dynasties happen (see also the Warriors). Kobe’s Finals loss in 2008 following a regular season MVP is likely what motivated the back to back titles and Finals MVPs that came the following two seasons in 2009 and 2010.

Dirk’s 2011 title and Finals MVP is legendary and legacy-defining. It also represents one of the biggest (if not the biggest) black marks on LeBron’s record in his case as the GOAT. The 2011 title win over the Heat brought redemption for the Finals loss to the Dwyane Wade/Shaquille O’Neal-led Heat of 2006.

Nash’s deepest playoff runs always ended against other MVPs – Duncan’s Spurs in 2003 and 2005, Nowitzki’s Mavs in 2006, and Kobe’s Lakers in 2010.

After 7 straight first round playoff exits to start his career, KG finally got a supporting cast (Sam Cassell, Latrell Sprewell) that allowed him to win MVP and make it to the Western Conference Finals before being eliminated by the Shaq/Kobe/Gary Payton/Karl Malone Lakers of 2004. After missing the playoffs in 3 straight seasons, KG was traded to Boston to team up with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen and win a title in 2008 (defeating the Kobe/Pau Lakers). Injuries in 2009 prevented him and Boston from defending that title, and a return trip to the Finals in 2010 was spoiled by those same Lakers they beat back in 2008.

Duncan, the model of consistency, made the playoffs in every season (injured in 2000), and was one win (and one Ray Allen 3-pointer) short of a real shot at 6 rings.

AI’s deepest playoff run during his MVP season in 2001 came with a team that perfectly complemented his scoring ability with tough-minded defenders. He ran into Shaq and Kobe at the peak of their powers in the Finals and never made it past the Conference Semi’s in any other year.

Shaq made an early career, deep playoff run all the way to the Finals in 1995, beating Jordan’s Bulls before ultimately being swept by Hakeem and the Rockets. After 2nd round exits in each of the following 4 seasons, Shaq finally won his first regular season MVP in 2000 and then subsequently the first of 3 championships and Finals MVPs (2000, 2001, 2002). 2004’s surprising Finals loss to the star-less Pistons brought an end to the Shaq-Kobe Lakers. Shaq’s 4th ring in 2006 came with Dwyane Wade taking over as the primary option and Finals MVP.

What does history tell us about this upcoming season? If you look at the recent MVP winners still in their primes, Embiid’s Sixers, Giannis’ Bucks, and Jokic’s Nuggets all look like contenders. Among the others who could win their first MVP this coming season (Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, maybe Anthony Edwards), each have legitimate shots at a first MVP and championship. And don’t count out Jayson Tatum as a candidate to win his first MVP and lead Boston to back to back titles.

As usual, all charts were created in R using data from basketball-reference.com.

While we wait for a decision to be made on the Lakers’ next head coach, we have a chance to review the contributions of the individual players throughout the course of the past season. While the most recent series loss to Denver will likely be what people remember most, let’s take a look back at the full season and how things progressed over the course of the year. The regular season stats overall give us some insight, but we should also break down the season across a few different stretches where the lineups changed.

Season Opener to In-Season Tournament

Through the first 23 games of the regular season (24 if you count the In-Season Tournament championship), the Lakers went 14-9 and had their best win percentage all season on Dec 7. After a rocky 3-5 start, Austin Reaves was moved to the bench to be featured in a 6th man role while Cam Reddish was inserted into the starting lineup. The Lakers’ new starting 5 of D’Angelo Russell, Reddish, Taurean Prince, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis was actually only a +5 during that stretch, whereas the original starting 5 with Reaves was +20. The early season lineups featured heavy minutes for both Prince and Reddish, along with a lesser role for Rui Hachimura, who missed games early in the year due to injury (concussion 10/30, broken nose 11/24). Prince’s catch-and-shoot/catch-and-go game and Reddish’s on-ball defense were both net positives as reflected in their positive +/- ratings.

Although the starting 5 with Reddish in place of Reaves was slightly less effective, Reaves saw his production jump significantly after being moved to the bench. In fewer minutes per game, Reaves’ production and efficiency were up across the board, and his candidacy for 6th man of the year was off to the races. So were the Lakers, as they sat at 4th in the West and took home the in-season tournament championship.

The Mid-Season Slog

After the Lakers’ early season triumphs, they proceeded to lose 10 of their next 13 games including two separate 4-game losing streaks that dropped them to 17-19. They hovered around the 0.500 mark into late January, sitting under 0.500 at 24-25 as late as Jan 30. What happened during that ghastly 3-10 stretch? D’Angelo Russell hit a cold streak, only scoring 10 points per game on 41% shooting, while also being moved to a bench role, with Jarred Vanderbilt stepping into the starting lineup as the Lakers tried to establish a defensive identity. Russell also missed 4 games during that stretch (all losses), LeBron James was a whopping -100, Vanderbilt was still ramping up after returning from injury, and Rui Hachimura only played 24 minutes per game, despite being one of the few Lakers with a positive net rating.

The Lakers certainly needed to change something up during that stretch, but moving Russell to the bench may not have been it. If we zoom out and look at the first game after the in-season tournament all the way through the end of January and focus on plus-minus at the wing position, it becomes pretty obvious what the answer should have been in hindsight. More Rui, more Vando, less Prince and Reddish. Or maybe what worked so well last season – Russell, Reaves, Vanderbilt, James, Davis, a 5-man lineup that unfortunately saw only 32 minutes of court time together this season (+27). Vanderbilt would of course go down with what ended up being a season-ending injury on Feb 1, opening the door for Hachimura to get some well deserved playing time in the season’s final months.

The Optimal Lineup Unleashed

With a surprising win on Feb 1 over the top overall seed Boston Celtics, the Lakers kicked off the final leg of the season playing their best basketball, finishing with wins in 23 of their final 33 regular season games. With their starting 5 now solidified, and the addition of Spencer Dinwiddie to fortify the guard rotation, the Lakers were firing on all cylinders. Who knows if these numbers would have been sustainable over the course of a full season, but the returns on the +/- numbers are impressive. Bringing everyone back, plus an upgrade at backup center if possible, might not be the worst thing in the world.

To sum it all up,

• LeBron and AD – great all season, and healthy
• Russell – the Lakers’ 3rd best player and was great all season other than a 10-game stretch in December/January and 2 playoff stinkers
• Reaves – also has a case as the 3rd best player, and was good other than a slow start through the first 8 games
• Rui – great but didn’t get enough playing time pre-Feb 1
• Prince – shooting and off the catch game is a good fit with LeBron and AD, but is better suited to a 20-minute per game role
• Vanderbilt, Dinwiddie, Christian Wood – can be positive contributors in the regular season, but may struggle in the postseason
• Jaxson Hayes plays with great energy, but fouls too much and ends up as a net negative
• Reddish – on-ball defense is great, but a lack of shooting makes him a questionable fit with LeBron and AD
• Gabe Vincent – need to see him get healthy; shooting and defense theoretically make him a good complementary piece
• Max Christie – showed some flashes of 3-and-D potential, but we need to see him in a consistent role

With the firing of head coach Darvin Ham earlier this week, the Lakers chose to play the blame game and point the finger squarely at coach Ham and the rest of the coaching staff. Although the Lakers’ regular season win total (47) was not far from what most of the over/under projections had predicted prior to the start of the season, a first round playoff exit was clearly not acceptable for the team’s top decision makers. Let’s take a look back at one facet of the season where coach Ham had the most control over: the rotation. The chart below shows a visual of how the rotation changed over the course of the season.

Ham often alluded to players being in and out of the lineup having a major impact on the rotation, but their 5 best players were healthy throughout most of the season. LeBron James, Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Rui Hachimura all played in 68 games or more. The only players expected to be in the top of the rotation who missed significant time were Gabe Vincent (71 games missed) and Jarred Vanderbilt (53 games missed). To be fair, those absences were not insignificant. The Lakers’ guard depth once Vincent went down early in the season was especially thin. And without Vanderbilt’s defense and rebounding for most of the season, the Lakers’ ranked second to last in offensive rebound rate and 17th in defensive rating.

The changes to the starting lineup have been widely discussed elsewhere, so I won’t go into too much detail there. I actually agreed with several of those decisions, including having Taurean Prince in the starting lineup, and moving Reaves to the bench as the 6th man early in the year. But having Prince in the starting lineup and playing him 30 minutes per game is something I cannot agree with. Ditto for having Rui only play 20-25 minutes per game. We all know the Lakers closed the season strong once Rui was inserted into the starting lineup in February. But D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves also saw bumps in their minutes, and the addition of Spencer Dinwiddie in place of Max Christie also gave the Lakers an extra lead guard and shot creator that they were sorely missing.

By the time February had hit, the Lakers understood who their 5 best players were and played them the minutes you would typically expect your best players to play. The rotation from February onward consisted of James, Davis, Reaves, Russell, and Hachimura all playing 30-35 minutes per game, with Prince, Dinwiddie, and Jaxson Hayes coming off the bench, and one of Reddish, Christie, or Vincent as the 9th man. Could the Lakers have settled on that rotation earlier in the season? Possibly, but it would have been much more complicated without Dinwiddie. Staggering Russell and Reaves as the primary ball handler probably made the most sense. The experiment at the end of December through beginning of January where both came off the bench sounds like it would’ve been disastrous, but the Lakers were actually fine during that stretch (aside from the 3 games Russell missed from Dec 31 – Jan 5, all of which they lost).

All in all, I don’t think issues with the rotation are what led to the Lakers only finishing as a 7 seed. Could they have given a few more minutes to Rui, Reaves, and Russell, and a little less to Prince and Reddish earlier in the season? Possibly, but the Lakers also peaked at 14-9 during the first stretch of the season when both Prince and Reddish were heavily featured. And by season’s end when the addition of Dinwiddie made the roster more balanced, the Lakers got hot again, going 19-9 in games when Dinwiddie played. But in between those two good stretches, the Lakers’ place in the standings was nothing to write home about, having spent most of late December through January hovering around 0.500.

A deeper review of the performance of the individual players is also needed. Decisions on which players to bring back and who to part ways with are always interesting, so we’ll need to break down who was most consistent over the course of the regular season and postseason. More on that to come.

The Lakers’ 2023-24 season ended with yet another Jamal Murray game winner. They played well enough to win, but on the last possession failed to stop the most unstoppable two-man action in basketball. Let’s break down the last box score of the season.

LeBron James played 44 minutes and fell one rebound shy of a 30-point triple double. Unfortunately, the Lakers desperately needed that tenth rebound. Maybe a younger, or more well-rested LeBron gets this crucial rebound, but instead it was Aaron Gordon grabbing his 5th offensive rebound of the game and kicking it out to Jamal Murray for a go-ahead 3 with just over a minute to play. Anthony Davis put up 17 points and 15 rebounds, but took just one field goal attempt and scored only 1 point in the second half after taking a hit to the shoulder early in the third quarter.

Austin Reaves (19 pts, 3 reb, 4 ast, 3 stl, 2 blk), D’Angelo Russell (14 pts, 6 ast), and Rui Hachimura (15 pts, 5 reb) all made positive contributions. Reaves especially was huge down the stretch, scoring 9 of the Lakers’ final 15 points. The bench was quiet, with only 11 points on 2 baskets (a pair of Dinwiddie 3’s), plus free throws from Prince (4) and Hayes (1).

It wasn’t enough, as Murray (32 pts, 3 reb, 7 ast), Nikola Jokic (25 pts, 20 reb, 9 ast), and Michael Porter Jr. (26 pts) carried the scoring load for the defending champion Denver Nuggets. Despite an uncharacteristically sloppy game from Jokic (7 turnovers), the reigning Finals MVP delivered yet another performance showing why he’s the best player in the world today. He hit two go-ahead shots in the final 3 minutes of the game, and it’s hard not to appreciate his basketball genius. Both of his clutch baskets were unassisted, the first of which he created simply by grabbing a rebound and pushing the ball up the court, forcing Rui Hachimura to match up with him instead of Anthony Davis. After creating the mismatch, he scored easily with what we have become accustomed to seeing, an unorthodox right-foot, right-hand floater.

Despite trailing at halftime for the fifth consecutive game, the Nuggets once again took control in the third quarter. While trailing 69-60 with 6 minutes to go in the third, Jokic ignited the comeback with a bailout 3 that got the crowd into it. After a pair of layups, and a 3 from Porter Jr., the lead was down to 1. During the game, I couldn’t help but wonder why a timeout was not being called to stop the momentum. But upon further review, the Lakers were already short on timeouts after having to use one early in the third quarter due to the shoulder injury to Davis. That injury may have also caused an unusual substitution pattern as the Lakers subbed Davis out and went with a centerless lineup for the next minute of play (with Jokic still on the floor). 2 more layups by Jokic and Murray immediately followed gave the Nuggets a 74-71 lead to cap the 14-2 run and finally force the Lakers to burn a timeout.

Those timeouts came back to bite the Lakers as they spent their final timeout with 3 minutes left in the game to (successfully) challenge a blocked shot by Davis on a Jokic post-up that was called a foul. After going back and forth down the stretch, two free throws by LeBron tied the game at 106 with 26 seconds remaining. Taurean Prince was inserted for D’Angelo Russell for the final defensive possession. We all know what happens next. Jokic-Murray pick-and-roll, (no double team, no stunt, no help), Murray makes a tough mid-ranger. Looking back at the replay, Prince and Hachimura actually get confused on the weak side as to who’s guarding former Laker KCP.

With only 3.6 seconds remaining and no timeouts, the Lakers failed to advance the ball (after Jokic foiled LeBron and AD’s attempt at a quick-hitter) and were left with a 41′ heave from Prince.

Crazy as it may sound, maybe D’lo would have been better on the last possession?He did a great job of helping off of KCP throughout the game, as he was clearly hobbled after rolling his ankle early in the game. But that’s what we’re left with, could’ve, would’ve, should’ve. A missed free throw here, a missed timeout there. The Lakers gave themselves a chance, but weren’t quite lucky enough to overcome the champs (and yes, you need luck in the playoffs). Maybe next year.

With the opening night of the 2021-22 NBA season less than a month away, it’s time for a preview of the upcoming season. HoopsHype has already come out with their projection and has the Lakers finishing atop the Western Conference. The Lakers return just three players from last season’s squad, but when two of those three are LeBron James and Anthony Davis, that can only mean championship aspirations. Let’s take a look at how each of the Lakers’ players project according to the trusty FiveThirtyEight Player Projections. These projections use the past performance of statistically similar players to project future performance for the upcoming season (read the full explanation here).

The All-Stars

The Lakers’ two stars are both projected in the All-Star category, one notch below the top tier of players who project as MVP Candidates (Giannis, Jokic, Harden, Doncic, Embiid). Davis was a projected MVP Candidate heading into last season, but sees a drop in projected Wins Above Replacement (WAR) after an injury-plagued 2020-21 campaign. LeBron remains a projected All-Star, even heading into his age 37 season. His two most comparable players according to FiveThirtyEight are the two players ahead of him on the leaderboard of all-time regular season scoring, Karl Malone and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. The Lakers’ dynamic duo will have to carry a heavy burden this season if FiveThirtyEight’s projections are right about the Lakers’ supposed third star.

A Dubious Starter?

Brutal. Russell Westbrook is one of the most polarizing players in the game today, and apparently FiveThirtyEight’s algorithm is not a fan. He replaces a point guard in Dennis Schroder who last year projected as an “Average Starter.” Despite averaging a triple-double last season, skeptics remain dubious of Westbrook’s ability to impact winning. His high usage % will seemingly have to take a dip this year. But the question of whether he or Lebron cedes control of the ball-handling and playmaking duties will be one of many fascinating Westbrook-related storylines to follow as the season progresses.

Rotation Players

New additions Kendrick Nunn (projected 2.2 WAR), Kent Bazemore (1.2 WAR), and Wayne Ellington (0.6 WAR) all project as rotation players. Who wins the other starting spot at guard, and who closes out games in that slot should be interesting positional battles to watch throughout the season. Head coach Frank Vogel has some serviceable options to choose from, but he has shown a propensity for mixing up his rotations and trying out different lineup combinations during the regular season. It will be an interesting choice between young legs and shot creation (Nunn), pure shooting (Ellington), and defense (Bazemore).

An Offensive Specialist and an Up-and-Comer

The Lakers also have two other young guns on the wing in Talen Horton-Tucker (projected 2.1 WAR) and Malik Monk (0.6 WAR) who will compete for minutes with Nunn, Bazemore, and Ellington. Horton-Tucker is marked as an “Up-and-Comer”, a category usually reserved for first round picks. A move like snagging THT in the 2nd round of the 2019 draft, and then re-signing him this season may be one of the keys to extending the Lakers’ title window. Ditto for signing a former lottery pick in Monk, an offensive specialist who finished last year shooting 40% from 3-point range. The Lakers will have to hope that these guys develop, otherwise they’ll be relying on (mm… how to say it nicely?) their veterans.

Scrappy Veterans

A couple of players who have been part of previous Laker title runs, Trevor Ariza (projected 1.2 WAR) and Dwight Howard (0.7 WAR), both at age 36, figure to have roles carved out in the Laker frontcourt rotation. How much these guys have left in the tank is a common question for not only for these two, but also the remaining players on the Laker roster. FiveThirtyEight is relatively kind to bestow the title of “Scrappy Veteran” on Ariza and Howard. The last 3 Lakers were not so fortunate.

A Scrub and Two Guys Way Past Their Prime

Former All-Stars DeAndre Jordan (“Scrub”, age 33), Rajon Rondo (age 35) and Carmelo Anthony (age 37) all project to have negative WAR contributions in the upcoming season. Anthony was the only one of the three to have had a positive WAR last season (+0.1), but both he and Rondo are now in the “Way Past His Prime” category. Rondo can likely help the team without being on the court much. DJ and Melo figure to compete for minutes with Ariza and Howard. Egos will need to be put in check. On the bright side, an aging roster means a high potential for games missed due to injury and rest, which may open up ample opportunities for everyone to shine.

Minutes Distribution

We can expect LeBron, AD, and Russ to each be in the 32-34 minute per game range this upcoming season. Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope had the Lakers’ 4th and 5th highest minutes per game last season at around 28 per game. Nunn was the only one to have that high a minute per game total last season, so we can probably pencil him in there once again. I’m hoping that THT takes that 5th spot in the 28 minute per game range. The rest of the guys should be fine with 15-20 minutes per game.

Is this a Championship Roster?

The Bucks won it all last season with three projected All-Stars (Giannis, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday), one average starter (P.J. Tucker), two rotation players (Brook Lopez, Pat Connaughton), and two scrubs (Bobby Portis, Bryn Forbes) as their top 8 rotation players. In order for the Lakers to win it all this year, they’ll need Russ to be closer to borderline All-Star than “Dubious Starter”, and LeBron or AD to be closer to MVP Candidate than All-Star.

The Brooklyn Nets loom large as a juggernaut. While Harden is the only one projected as an MVP Candidate among the Brooklyn big 3, Kevin Durant could just as easily be too if not for missing all of 2020 and part of last season due to injury (which brings down the algorithm’s projected WAR significantly). FiveThirtyEight’s projections are bullish on other Net players as well including Joe Harris (Average Starter), Blake Griffin, Bruce Brown, Patty Mills, and Landry Shamet (rotation players). The Nets have enough talent to win a championship even if they were to hit some bad injury luck throughout a playoff run (as they nearly did last season).

The Lakers’ margin of error is much smaller, as they’ll need a clean bill of health and all the pieces to fit better than many expect them to. LeBron, AD, Russ, and Melo won a gold medal together way back in 2012 at the London Olympics. Can they win an NBA title together almost a decade later? Father time is not on their side.