BNEF chief sees optimistic future for renewables in an age of plenty. Cost are falling due to technical and economics, while energy (electricity specifically) demand will be less than expected.

Nick Butler is not that optimistic for grean energy though. Refering to IEA’s latest report, Nick thinks renewables will not quickly become the major energy source. Coal still dominates, especially in China and India where industrialisation are happier with lower hydrocarbon price. The two vunerable conventional technologies are nuclear and gas-fired power generation, which are both relatively costly. Cost will be pushed down by renewables economics – with near-zero variable cost. But Nick insists that subsidies are still needed for renewables to grow.

The key question is which IOCs will be the first to adapt with such future and succeed. Or the future will belong to small ones in a distributed energy market.

#coal, #energyprice, #gas, #oil, #power, #renewables