Staring at the Floorboards

Obviously we have a historical precedent for our other Saturday matchup, with Illinois and Iowa having faced each other just once in the regular season in B1G play. Illinois won that game with a dominant start against an Iowa team that reportedly had teamwide flu at the time. The flu primarily affected Manyawu, who could only play 8 minutes, but his absence on the floor did lead to some interesting 5 out looks for the Hawkeyes, which negated the Illini size advantage and led to Iowa creeping back in the game but never quite getting over the hump due to poor perimeter shooting (9-29 from 3). Bennett Stirtz had close to his worst game of the season as well, with Boswell really hounding him and Crocker even dialing up more hedge with Mirkovic than the typical Illini drop coverage. Iowa scored a season low .25 PPP via ball screen, and were similarly inefficient in roll offense (although Banks was an efficient passer out of short roll), but did find efficient offense via cut when Illinois overplayed Stirtz.

Illinois offensively created 20 unguarded catch and shoots, the highest Iowa allowed all season until Nebraska in the Sweet 16, but a high rate of those came from players Iowa wanted to leave open while in their typical hedge against Wagler. Illinois however routinely got to the rim out of their high PNR rate, landing on a 96th percentile 2PT attempt proximity rate, highlighting the size advantage the Illini enjoyed, especially with Manyawu mostly unavailable. Illinois was much more efficient in their similarly high PNR rate than the Hawkeyes, and also found isolation matchups they could exploit, as they tend to do. Iowa actually won the offensive glass and turnover battle slightly, and thus had a small shot volume win, but the Illini were simply more efficient on the ball offensively in a battle of two high PNR rate offenses.

Iowa of course has been outstanding in this tournament offensively, scoring 1.24 PPP in 3 games against the 24th, 6th, and 7th most efficient defenses in the country, per KenPom adjusted efficiency rating. The most impressive part about that efficiency in the March has been the fact they’ve done with only one good shooting game (the shotmaking extravaganza against Nebraska), and Stirtz shooting 6-28 from 3. My concern would be that Stirtz was really neutralized as a scorer by Boswell in that regular season meeting, and the “secret weapon” of going 5 out with Manyawu was already seen by the Illini when he was flu ridden. Iowa meanwhile just simply wasn’t very good defensively against an Illinois spread offense that can space out and really burn hedge base schemes like Iowa.

Giving Ben McCollum multiple possessions in this tournament is almost insane to pass up at this point, and we saw his gameplan on short prep against a one seed that he had no prior familiarity with, but I don’t like the schematics for the Hawkeyes nor do I like how that first matchup with the Illini played out. Lean Illinois.

SOUTH REGION

IOWA vs NEBRASKA

• There simply aren’t enough superlative to describe the coaching job Ben McCollum did against Florida. On one day of prep, he had Iowa limiting Florida to 61 possessions, the slowest game of the Todd Golden era since another 61 possession game against Miss State in year 1 in Gainesville. Iowa held Florida to a total of 39 rim and transition points, their third lowest combined total in that regard all season. Iowa meanwhile shot 70% on 2PT attempts, scoring 31 points in PNR offense (19 on the roll), the most Florida allowed all season in pure raw totals, and that was in their lowest possession game of the year!Duke was the only other offense this season to even hit the 60% mark on 2PTAs against the Gators until the Hawkeyes. My mere words cannot fully express what McCollum did Florida, and will go down as one of the alltime great coaching performances in NCAA history. So what’s the follow up for a rubber match with Nebraska, with both he and Hoiberg having prep time?
• Both games were unsurprisingly coin flips, but Iowa did struggle with the extreme no middle from the Huskers in both meetings, sporting 20% and 26% turnover rates, 7 from Stirtz in the series. They also had a 6th percentile 2PT proximity distance and 36th percentile in the 2 games (no surprise given Nebraska owns the lowest rim rate allowed in the country), but did shoot the ball much better from the field in the regular season finale, but lost that game in OT at PBA.
• Nebraska hedge, double teams, and general overshift defensively makes ball screen offense difficult (8th percentile rate allowed, 99th percentile efficiency rating), and Iowa scored just 9 total points via ball screen in the 2 game season series, with most of Stirtz’ points in the Iowa win coming in isolation. However, Nebraska has been vulnerable against the short roll, and the Huskers were getting so scrambled by that short roll corner kick out against Vandy they had to zone down the stretch, which ultimately won them the game. Iowa can exploit this, especially if Fulgueiras’ mother continues to be in the stands and he and Koch keep spreading out against the Husker ball overloads.
• Nebraska will spread out 5 wide offensively, with Mast spraying out of DHOs to nonstop cutters and screeners (90th+ percentile rates in both areas, with high 90th percentile finishing efficiencies), and Iowa’s hedge is particularly vulnerable to elite cutting teams, defending in just the 9th percentile nationally in that regard, per Synergy data. To wit, in Nebraska’s win they scored 17 points via cut at 1.7 PPP, the most Iowa allowed all season.
• Honestly with prep time and scheme familiarity, I think both coaches have everything figured out here, and Hoiberg isn’t afraid to trade halfcourt schematic volleys with McCollum, as the Huskers are an elite halfcourt offense. Iowa has the best player on the floor, but Nebraska has the more skilled overall cast. Iowa’s elite short roll usage is the key offensively, Nebraska’s player and ball movement the key on the other end. If Folgueiras and Koch are still making shots in Houston out of these short roll kick outs, I think Iowa wins.
• Lean Iowa.

HOUSTON vs ILLINOIS

• Home game for Houston, but Illinois is as built offensively for handling the Houston hedge/trap on the ball screen and post Monster, as they can spread the floor 5 wide in PNR and have elite size, passers, and shooters at every position. Not only does spreading the floor out like Illinois does allow them to find the open weakside catch and shoots, it creates massive gaps and driving lanes for the Illini to attack in isolation, another key tenet of their offensive scheme. David Mirkovic could eat in multiple ways in the short roll, secondary creation off Wagler’s hedge outs, and simply attacking Cenac, Houston’s worst isolation defender (loved Sampson’s line about he leaves yelling at Cenac about his defense to his son, so that he can go play with his grandkids).
• Illinois’ drop coverage however is tailor made for Houston’s anti-analytical midrange targeting, ball screen and off the dribble heavy offense. It’s hit or miss for Houston, almost by design, but the drop space is going to be there for Flemings to operate.
• Offensive rebounding rates are going to be something to watch here, as both teams are elite in that regard, but there’s been a dropoff for the Cougars this year, while Illinois has been the third best OREB% team in the country- and Houston can be exploitable on the defensive glass because they’re often so over rotated. That said, there has been a drop off in Illinois’ rebounding against the top 50, and they drop from a top 25 defense to barely top 60 against top 50 opponents. This is probably one of the more anti-analytical statements you’ll ever see my type, but I think the Cougars have a toughness edge here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them actually win the OREB rate battle.
• There are few, if any, offenses more perfectly constructed to nuke against Houston’s defensive scheme, but I think Houston is the faster, more physical team, and they can get to their ugly buckets in the halfcourt against the Illini soft drop.
• Lean Houston.

WEST REGION

ARIZONA vs ARKANSAS

• 78th percentile rim rate allowed with a 15th percentile efficiency rating. 45th percentile transition rate allowed with a 26th percentile efficiency rating. 203rd in defensive rebounding rate. 46th percentile efficiency rating in overall PNR defense (at a 92nd percentile rate). These are absolutely frightening numbers against Arizona’s rim, transition, and OREB rate numbers. Factor in Acuff plays the most ole defense on the perimeter in the entire country (seriously, it’s the worst defense I’ve ever seen at an elite college basketball level), and this looks pretty rough for the Hogs’ defense. The easy comp to what Arizona does in transition, on the glass, and in the paint is Florida, and the Gators scored 56 points at the rim and grabbed their few misses at a nearly 50% rate. I keep thinking “well, maybe now that the games REALLY matter, Acuff will show some interest in defending”, but he’s actually gotten visibly worse this tournament, with Rob Martin literally running right by him. Calling him a turnstile is offensive to turnstiles.
• As big of a joke as Acuff’s defense is, he more than mitigates it with his offense. Arkansas hunts transition and early offense in the first ball screen, iso mismatch they see, but Arizona allows transition at just a 29th percentile rate with a 98th percentile efficiency rating. The Big Mo Drop is just a few steps below the ClingKong Drop in terms of Arizona’s elite rim defense, but there is room for Acuff, Thomas, Richmond, Brazile to iso hunt and work in the midrange. Arkansas will have to continue to shoot the cover off the ball from the perimeter however to make up for what they’re giving up on the other end. I will say this has been a top 20 offense in 16 top 50 games, but they still didn’t step up defensively in those games (90th in defensive efficiency rating in those 16 games), and there’s just so many issues on that end, both individually and in team defense.
• Lean Arizona.

PURDUE vs TEXAS

• Defensively Purdue is going to face the same challenges that they faced against Miami (and essentially everyone else this season)- they can’t stop Texas’ big shot creating wings from getting into the paint out of ball screens and isos. Miami got two feet into the paint at virtually every position. Painter basically went pure drop that game, abandoning the hedge and switch that was routinely getting roasted down the stretch. Swain and Mark are going to win matchups, and Vokietaitis is going to get post touches. Purdue won’t be stopping the Horns’ offense all that much, they simply don’t have the athleticism.
• On the other end however, the Boilers can absolutely cook. Purdue’s midrange targeting scheme and PNRs have been on another level since the Indiana loss in Bloomington, scoring 1.38 PPP since Feb 1. Texas plays a deep drop with Vokietaitis and Braden Smith just absolutely picks apart drop coverages like this (although we’ve seen Miller do some hedging with him, most notably against BYU, and I wonder if that’s the wrinkle against the Braden ball screen, which is essentially the only halfway proven track record to slow him down, but generally that’s with an athletic, mobile hedge, which Vokietaitis wouldn’t bring). Texas has acquitted themselves well defensively this tournament, against some actual offenses as well in NC State, BYU, and Gonzaga. The Horns have surrendered just 1.03 PPP in those 3 games (helpful that those teams shot 26% from 3), but the season long resume defensively is brutal, and wholly exploitable by Purdue’s elite PNR offense and scheming with prep. Texas has graded out as a 7th percentile ball screen efficiency defense on a 99th percentile rate, and a 9th percentile overall PNR defense in efficiency rating, and they’re well outside the top 100 in overall defensive efficiency rating in 18 games vs the top 50. The good news for the Horns is that they’re 22nd in offensive efficiency rating in those games. Bad news is Purdue is a top 5 offense in 20 games vs the top 50.
• Drop, hedge, or switch, Purdue is going to struggle to defend Texas’ iso and ball screen creators, and Vokietaitis has been playing his best two way basketball of the season. But ultimately this probably looks a lot like the Miami game, where the Horns can go back and forth with the Boilers for the majority of the game before ultimately being outexecuted and their defensive holes exploited.
• Purdue advances, but lean Horns on spread, with the expectation that late game fouls blow a cover they had for 39+ minutes, just like Miami.

MIDWEST REGION

MICHIGAN vs ALABAMA

• Everyone and their mother knows the deal for Alabama here: spread the floor against Michigan’s size, chuck up 40+ triples, and hope for the best. Michigan’s size and versatility with that size makes it virtually impossible to score at the rim against Michigan, unless you have big boys who will finish through their chest like Duke (Alabama doesn’t). Alabama’s games against Purdue, Gonzaga, Arizona, Tennessee, Florida have all shown their vulnerability at the rim and with size and physicality in general. That’s going to be exploited by Michigan’s elite rim and transition onslaught, and even “out variancing” some of those teams didn’t do anything for the Tide.
• The Tide sport a top 10 offense vs 16 top 50 games, and their 2PT% defense is actually top 50 in those games, but they’re 200th in defensive rebounding rate and barely top 100 in overall defensive efficiency rating in those games, playing them at a top 50 pace. That’s not a good recipe for an upset here.
• Michigan’s switch and drop around Mara has shown some vulnerabilities in ball screen defense against high level creators, and Philon is about as high level as it gets, and maybe the Tide get Holloway back (although that doesn’t seem likely, and I actually like the length and versatility non Holloway lineups provide for Oats, which you need in this matchup). But it genuinely feels like an insane 15-20 3PT make night is the Tide’s path here. Christian Odjakjian (@OdjHoops) noted on X that Oats has dorked Cadeau in the past when he was at UNC, but Cadeau has actually hit jump shots this season, especially of late. But still, desperate times call for desperate measures, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oats deploy it again, as the Tide’s PNR and rim defense and defensive rebounding is in serious need of an extra body in this matchup.
• Would the Tide winning outright floor me? Absolutely not. Would Michigan winning with ease be more likely? Of course. Lean Michigan, but a Bama ML sprinkle isn’t a bad idea.

IOWA STATE vs TENNESSEE

• Without Jefferson, we saw TJO just absolutely put the python squeeze on Kentucky’s offense, who actually shot the ball at a reasonable clip- the only problem was they turned the ball over on nearly a third of their possessions. Tennessee’s offense hasn’t exactly been the most possession valuing unit in the country, and the aggressive high hedge and rim denial is going to be a problem for an offense that has trouble generating quality shots outside of Gillespie’s ball screen and post ups, neither of which are really going to be available for the Vols.
• The question is whether or not Tennessee’s offensive rebounding rate can outpace ISU’s defensive turnover rate. The Vols are the best OREB% team in the country, and ISU’s ball overloads can leave them vulnerable on the defensive glass, even more so if Jefferson remains out. All 7 of the Clones’ losses saw a 31% or higher OREB% from their opponent. The Vols have eclipsed that mark in all but 3 games this season.
• ISU’s offense without Jefferson could very well struggle here as well. Tennessee will hedge out on Lipsey and it makes it easier to chase Momcilovic on all of the screening action, as Jefferson is the primary screener and passer in those actions, which Tennessee actually hasn’t been vulnerable against all season. Relatedly, neither have the Clones, which seemingly mitigates yet another path to offense for the Vols in terms of the ubiquitous Barnes flex and floppy.
• Generally don’t see how either teams scores if Jefferson remains out, which makes that aforementioned turnover vs offensive rebounding shot volume battle so important. If Jefferson doesn’t make a miracle return, I would lean Vols.

SOUTH REGION:

• Florida will play the winner of Prairie View A&M and Lehigh in the 16 play-in, so I’ll start with a few words on that matchup. Since Feb 14, when Corey Dunning became a starter for PVAM, the Panthers have been a top 100 overall defense in terms of efficiency rating with a top 5 eFG% and 2PT% defense. Obviously those numbers were acquired against SWAC offenses, but obviously Dunning’s presence at the rim has been a season changer for the Panthers. The offense has been better as well with Lance Williams taking more shots during Tai’Reon Joseph’s absence, and even with his return he’s continued scoring. Dunning has been an efficient 1v1 post defender, key against Lehigh’s Hank Alvey, one of the most prolific and efficient pure back to the basket scorers in the sport (97th percentile rate, 85th percentile efficiency rating). Lehigh scored 49 post points in 3 Patriot League tournament games, almost entirely from Alvey. If Lehigh isn’t posting up Alvey, they’re ball screening Nasir Whitlock, one of the highest usage and shot rate PGs in the country. Whitlock scored in double figures in every game this season except back on Nov 9 against West Virginia, where he left with an injury. Generally speaking, you want to make Alvey move and put him in ball screens, where he Lehigh defended at just a 10th percentile efficiency rating (per Synergy data). PVAM however is a straight transition and isolation offense. 4 of the last 5 SWAC entries have won their play-in game, and they’ve all done it with shot volume wins, typically out physicaling an NEC or equivalent entry, and that could be the case here as well.
• Clemson almost always is able to dictate pace against their opponents, owning a 9th percentile transition rate allowed and a 98th percentile late shot clock rate, per Synergy data. Enter Ben McCollum’s offense, which operates in transition at just a 2nd percentile rate, and 99th percentile in late clock offense. Clemson’s two big lineup has struggled at times defending in ball screens and PNR against elite ball screen offenses, grading out in the 20th percentile in ball screen defensive efficiency rating, and have given up 15+ points to ball screen operators in each of their last 3 losses- that doesn’t seem particularly ideal against Bennett Stirtz. Clemson meanwhile plays heavily through their frontcourt (even without Welling), and Iowa grades out as a 3rd percentile rim defense. Both of these teams have been fringe top 50 over the past month+, but have exploitable matchups in this ultimate grinder. I’m slightly more inclined towards Stirtz controlling the game with his ball screen, as Clemson’s whole defensive thesis is making the right switch and forcing isolation at a 98th percentile rate, but Iowa just ball screens methodically until they get the matchup they want for Stirtz.
• McNeese switches absolutely everything (95th percentile iso rate) and utilizes a trapping zone pressure at a 98th percentile rate to generate the highest turnover and steal rate in the country. This however is a deadly game to play against Vanderbilt’s elite backcourt, who turned the ball over at the 11th lowest rate in the country, with a 98th percentile press offense efficiency rating. McNeese cannot score when they’re taking the ball out of the net, as they operated at just a 2nd percentile in the halfcourt all season, and that pressing scheme also led to a 97th percentile transition rate allowed when they didn’t generate a turnover, and Vandy is an elite finishing offense in transition. Of McNeese’s 3 SLC losses, 2 came in their highest and third highest halfcourt offense rates of conference season. McNeese is athletic and a ridiculously talented SLC entry once again, but Vanderbilt is built for attacking this press and switch, whereas Clemson last year wasn’t. I’d be very surprised if there was an Amir Khan revival in the first round.
• Nebraska’s extreme no middle where they hedge out the ball screen and front/double the post effectively works as a zone, which Troy is very familiar with in the extreme zone usage of the Sun Belt. The Huskers allow the lowest rim rate in the country, and the 4th highest 3PTA rate. Troy is a true rim and 3 offense, but they’re only going to have the 3 available in this one, just like against South Alabama’s zone in SBC play. While Troy shoots the 3 at a top 50 rate, they made just 33% and were a 16th percentile catch and shoot offense in terms of efficiency rating, on an 87th percentile rate. Troy does have some recourse if the triples aren’t falling at a high rate, as they’re a strong offensive rebounding team (a staple under Scott Cross) and they’re mobile and athletic in the frontcourt, capable of defending Mast when Hoiberg goes 5 out hub (Bellamy replacing the injured Seng hasn’t missed a beat in this regard, but Seng is slated to return to the lineup, giving Troy valuable frontcourt versatility). The Huskers then crisscross the lane with a litany of screening and cutting action with Mast at the top of the key, but the Trojans graded out in nearly the 90th percentile in efficiency rating defening against cuts and off ball screening. Over the past month, Troy has shot 28% from 3 and opponents have hit 23% (the second lowest mark in the country in that time frame). Nebraska meanwhile has the country’s 5th best defense in that same month long stretch because opponents have hit just 28% from 3 on a top 20 rate allowed. There’s a reasonable case to be made for Troy keeping this close with their defense and offensive rebounding even if they shoot around 30% from 3 on massive volume like they did against USA in both games (42 attempts each game, averaged 11.5 makes), but they likely can’t actually win without at least 35-40% 3PT shooting, because they’ll get little at the rim outside of some putbacks.
• I’m worried about both offenses in North Carolina and VCU. Both defenses are going to be in drop coverage, and I’m concerned about VCU’s drive and kick reliance against UNC’s total rim and 3 denial (9th percentile rim rate allowed, 4th percentile catch and shoot rate allowed vs VCU’s 60th percentile rim rate and 85th percentile c&s- although teams hit a massive amount of uncontested threes against UNC when they botch their switch, which has been the story of the year for the Heels)- but equally concerned about UNC’s ability to generate their 85th percentile unguarded rate (with 95th percentile scoring efficiency) against a VCU drop coverage that allowed just a 10th percentile unguarded rate. UNC’s switch and drop was tortured by elite ball screen creators, and while VCU doesn’t ball screen or score off the dribble at a high rate, Terrence Hill has been extremely efficient in both areas, with VCU scoring in the 90th+ percentile efficiency wise. UNC meanwhile has struggled generating offense on the ball, with a 30th percentile efficiency rating in ball screens and 27th percentile off the dribble. Unless Veesaar is just completely unplugging Djokovic from the rim, I think Hill’s recent takeover offensively on the ball is the difference.
• Brad Underwood lost his first 5 games to Fran McCaffery to start his Illinois tenure, but went 9-1 after (with the one loss a late comeback by the Hawkeyes. So yes, Underwood is quite familiar with the nonstop screening action the Illini are going to see from Penn. Ironically Illinois has actually been awful defending off-ball screening action (91st percentile rate allowed, 16th percentile efficiency rating), but they can completely camp out on the perimeter in their drop coverage given Penn is one of the least efficient rim and 2PT offenses in general in the country. TJ Power won’t be able to rise and fire over smaller defenders off those pindowns like he did in the Ivy. Illinois has trouble with more physical frontcourts on both ends, but that is absolutely not the case here against the Quakers, in fact it couldn’t be any farther from the case. Penn has been a top 40 defense since February, but not at the rim.
• The committee basically gave St. Mary’s the same matchup as last year- a smaller, much faster SEC team that wants to play in transition and spread the floor offensively. The glaring disparity is of course tempo between Bennett Ball and Bucky Ball, with the Gaels a 95th percentile halfcourt offense rate team and allowing a 5th percentile transition rate defensively, while TAMU owns a 70th percentile transition rate offensively and allows a 99th percentile transition with their zone pressure scheme. In that first round matchup with Vandy, the Gaels limited the game to 59 possessions, which was easily the slowest of the year for the Dores. But what’s important to remember is that Vandy was actually spreading out the 2 big SMC lineup in PNR offense, and had a double digit lead in the 2H before the wheels fell off and they couldn’t make a shot. TAMU is going to play 5 out and try to spread SMC out, but unlike Vandy, they don’t utilize a lot of ball screens and PNRs, preferring to spread via handoffs and off-ball screens, and back cutting hard off that overplay from the defense. The Gaels are not susceptible to cutters, as they always have elite size parked at the rim, allowing just a 9th percentile cut rate with a 98th percentile defensive efficiency rating. SMC has actually seen a press at a high rate this year (81st percentile) with an 85th percentile efficiency rating in press offense. The final note to prove I’m pretty wishy washy on this one? TAMU won their two slowest games of the year vs Oklahoma and Texas (both 62 possessions).
• Idaho rebounds well (5th in DREB% per KenPom) and is strong in both rim deterrence and rim defense, which hardly matters against Houston’s midrange game, and is actually something of a hindrance with the way they funnel ball screen and dribble creation against Kingston Flemings. Idaho’s offense meanwhile is one of the most post up predicated in the country (96th percentile led by Jack Rasmussen), which is pretty far from ideal against the Houston post double and denial Monster scheme (and Rasmussen has not been a strong passer). The Vandals’ secondary form of offense? Kolton Mitchell ball screens- again not ideal against the Houston high hedge. As a 15 seed, you’re not going to see too many friendly matchups, but this was the worst 2 seed the Vandals could have drawn.

SOUTH PREDICTIONS: Florida over Iowa, Nebraska over Vandy, Illinois over VCU, Houston over St. Mary’s

Florida over Nebraska, Houston over Illinois

SOUTH CHAMPION: Florida over Houston

MIDWEST REGION:

• Michigan gets the winner of Howard and UMBC, two teams who actually played last season. UMBC destroyed the Bison, scoring 1.37 PPP on 12-24 3PT shooting, but Howard actually led with 9 minutes remaining before ultimately being outscored by 20 in the final 8 minutes. Interestingly Howard didn’t use their zone pressure at all that game, which they use at a 93rd percentile rate, which they use to force a top 10 turnover rate nationally and a 93rd percentile transition rate. UMBC however has veteran guards who turned the ball over at the lowest rate in the AmEast and allowed just a 3rd percentile transition rate defensively. Howard in the halfcourt is just a series of quick hitting back cuts to the rim in a bizarro Princeton offense. UMBC doesn’t foul, they rebound well defensively (since Tanchyn became a starter, the Retreivers are the 15th best rebounding team in the country), don’t turn the ball over, and deny transition. These are all areas the Howard offense typically thrives in. Schematically lean UMBC, but it seems fairly routine to see the more physical team win these 16 seed play-ins.
• Really comes down to how St. Louis handles the Georgia press, as the Billies can shred in transition, but they also tend to turn the ball over in bunches. Additionally, when they cut in the halfcourt, Avila’s hub positioning and passing can either draw elite shot blocker and open the rim for all the cutters Schertz likes to utilize, or Avila will be open for top of key triples, where he’s shooting 41%. There are a lot of similarities to what Xavier did in 5 out offense against Georgia to what SLU will do, only the Billies will do it more efficiently and won’t get totally crushed at the rim like XU’s nonexistent rim defense did. If SLU can limit the turnovers, they’re going to score. UGA has shot 43% from 3 the past month, but no one hits triples against SLU all year (unless you’re Stanford or Rhody).
• Aden Holloway’s arrest does actually matter here against Hofstra, as the Tide were +10 offensively with him on the floor per EvanMiya adjusted on/off efficiency data, and that was even more pronounced in SEC games. Hofstra has elite shot making and ball screen/off the dribble creators in Edmead and Cruz, which is exactly what they need against Alabama’s drop coverage (both of these offenses are among the elite elite in ball screen creation- as they share practically identical high 90s percentile rates and efficiency ratings). Hofstra actually runs a better drop coverage on their end, as they allow next to nothing at the rim (6th percentile rim rate, 99th percentile efficiency rating). The Tide of course still have Philon on the ball, and they’re not looking to score at the rim anyway, but Bama would really like to see the “against Auburn” version of Amari Allen, as there aren’t too many 6’8 ball screen creators in the CAA, and the one the Pride did see in Towson’ Tyler Tejada absolutely torched them. Hofstra is going to score here and keep this close (they’re also a strong offensive rebounding team), but the Tide are also going to get up 30+ triples.
• Akron is going to be a popular 12 seed with a veteran core making their third straight NCAA tournament appearance and getting a Texas Tech team who went 3-3 without Toppin, winning their first 3 and dropping their final 3. They have performed like a top 5 offense still without him, as Christian Anderson’s usage has skyrocketed. Bamgboye initially was serviceable as roller/lob threat in those first 3 games without Toppin, but he’s useless offensively as Anderson faced two extreme hedge defenses intent on taking the ball out of his hands. Akron will switch on ball screens with the versatility of Lyles and the Mahaffeys in the frontcourt, but Tech still has lethal shooters if Groce is routinely making Anderson play against two. Speaking of lethal shooters, Akron will spread Bamgboye’s drop coverage out 5 wide, with elite ball movement and shooting, which in turn will open up their back cuts they’re extremely efficient with, especially with everyone on the floor a passer. Since February, Tech has a +10% 3PT delta and no one has hit double digit triples against the Raiders since Houston on Jan 24, and it’s only happened twice in the year 2026 (both Tech wins). That trend has to change if Akron wants to avoid another NCAA tournament participation trophy.
• Miami OH and SMU is one of the most anticipated 11 seed play-in games since the First Four was forced upon us, as the RedHawks have been an at-large discussion lightning rod for a few months now. The game itself should be a fun one. Both offenses make shots efficiently at every level, but SMU isn’t a prolific rim offense, where you can really hurt Miami. Yigitoglu can’t defend in PNR, which is an issue vs Miami, the most efficient PNR offense in the entire country. As a result Enfield sags off the perimeter/zones at a high rate, neither of which are going to be ideal against this Miami offense. BJ Edwards was self reported by SMU as available, but again, when you’re on the bubble SMU will report to the committee that Shake Milton and Kendric Davis are available- we’ll see how much Edwards can contribute, but he’s a substantial two way piece in the backcourt. Winner gets Tennessee in Philly, where I think Miami would have a better chance of survival offensively, although Enfield would put Barnes in March Zone Hell.
• Obviously as a 14 seed, no draw is going to be ideal, but Virginia was particularly brutal for Wright State. The Raiders own a 95th percentile rim rate, which good luck with that against Onyenso, and they’re one of the least efficient off ball defenses in the country (93rd percentile off-ball screen rate allowed, with a 6th percentile efficiency rating), which isn’t ideal against an Odom offense. I will say however Michael Cooper is capable of being an electric on ball creator against UVA’s drop coverage, and UVA’s perimeter defenders are by far their biggest weakness.
• Santa Clara is an offense that works heavily on the ball, and that’s only become more pronounced with the rise of Gavalyugov down the stretch. Kentucky has struggled in their ball screen, isolation, and dribble defense, and this is not a midmajor outfit they can simply out athlete. Santa Clara’s defense against high major offenses is a major concern though, as it’s a pressure heavy, high risk high reward system but without consistent rim protection on the back end. That could really burn them here.
• Led by Aaron Nkrumah, Tennessee State has uncommon perimeter length and athleticism for an OVC entry in an extreme pressure and trap heavy scheme. That however is going to lead to them getting mollywhopped by Iowa State, as that same chaos inducement allows for massive transition and rim rates when they don’t generate a turnover (94th and 88th percentiles, respectively) which is exactly not what you want to do to compete against a high major powerhouse.

MIDWEST PREDICTIONS: Michigan over St. Louis, Texas Tech over Alabama (although very tempted by Akron), Tennessee over Virginia, Iowa State over Kentucky

Texas Tech over Michigan, Iowa State over Tennessee

MIDWEST CHAMP: Texas Tech over Iowa State

FINAL FOUR: Florida over Duke, Arizona over Texas Tech

CHAMPIONSHIP: Arizona over Florida