Arizona Cardinals

2024 Record: 8-9

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 9.06

NYT/Athletic Wins: 8.7

DVOA Wins: 9.2

FPI Wins: 8.25

Market Estimates:

Market Wins: 8.73

Implied Pythag: 49.29%

Quarterback Kyler Murray put together a perfectly cromulent season:

2021: 3,787 yards, 24 TD, 10 INT, 6.8 NY/P, 15.6% DVOA, 792 DYAR (in 14 games)

2022: 2,368 yards, 14 TD, 7 INT, 5.2 NY/P, -6.6% DVOA, 130 DYAR (in 11 games)

2023: 1,799 yards, 10 TD, 5 INT, 5.9 NY/P, 0.0% DVOA, 184 DYAR (in eight games)

2024: 3,851 yards, 21 TD, 11 INT, 6.3 NY/P, 11.9% DVOA, 998 DYAR

At this point I am confident we’ve seen peak Kyler Murray. Last season he was healthy, with an upgraded WR corps. He performed well enough, I suppose. Just not well enough to lead the Cardinals to a winning record.

To be fair, the Cardinals faced a tough schedule. It’s quite a bit easier this year. #1WR Marvin Harrison will have had a full year of experience under his belt. I am just not sold on trusting 5’10” quarterbacks with the #1 overall pick, or with a sizable second contract. Murray is forced to play on hard mode, which is… hard in a league as tough as the NFL.

2024 first-round pick Marvin Harrison had a productive but also frustrating rookie campaign:

2024: 62 receptions, 885 yards, -5.2 +/-, -3.4% DVOA, 84 DYAR

Sure, he had a few drops, but that’s not what is driving these numbers. The Cardinals seemed to expect Harrison to produce on routes where Murray had not previously excelled. Someone in Arizona needs to do some self-scouting so that the Cardinals understand their strengths and how to play to them.

I have great confidence that Harrison can be a star in the NFL. I have less confidence that star turn will happen in Arizona with Murray.

2023 third-round pick Michael Wilson regressed under a full season of Murray:

2023: 38 receptions, 565 yards, +2.7 +/-, 18.2% DVOA, 137 DYAR (in 13 games)

2024: 47 receptions, 548 yards, +2.3 +/-, 1.4% DVOA, 83 DYAR (in 16 games)

The fact is, Wilson did his damage in 2023 with Josh Dobbs at the helm. He was lousy with Murray in 2023. 2024 was a bit better in that regard, but with Harrison drawing attention, expectations were much higher than this.

The Cardinals don’t really have a trusted #3 WR. Greg Dortch proved the slot cheat code has limitations (-8.4% DVOA), and the Cardinals don’t like throwing the ball to Zay Jones (11 targets last season).

2022 fifth-round pick Trey McBride has developed into an elite #1TE:

2023: 81 receptions, 825 yards, +5.9 +/-, -1.4% DVOA, 41 DYAR

2024: 111 receptions, 1,146 yards, +10.1 +/-, 4.7% DVOA, 123 DYAR (in 16 games)

McBride is Murray’s most popular target… except at the goal line. Case in point.

The thing is, I’m not entirely certain it’s all bad luck and variance. McBride is actually pretty good in the red zone. It’s when the field gets condensed that Murray much prefers to work outside instead of through the traffic. Even on that touchdown, it was a quick outside screen.

For the record, I don’t care about fantasy football. I just wanted to point out that there might be a reason McBride has seven touchdowns in three seasons and one came on the ground.

2023 sixth-round pick Elijah Higgins will return to provide depth. He was solid in limited usage last season (12.1% DVOA, 33 DYAR).

2024 third-round pick Tip Reiman is an excellent blocker. Expect more of the same from him in 2025.

#1RB James Connor put together a solid season:

2023: 241 squid, 1,205 yards, 15.3% DVOA, 250 DYAR (in 13 games)

2024: 291 squid, 1,508 yards, 6.0% DVOA, 216 DYAR (in 16 games)

He appeared in 16 games, which was a nice change of pace.

2024 third-round pick Trey Benson is in line for a promotion:

2024: 69 squid, 350 yards, 9.0% DVOA, 62 DYAR (in 13 games)

Conner turned 30 in May. I’m expecting Benson to see increased usage this season.

The Cardinals’ offensive line played well overall, but it was a mixed bag when you examined it more closely.

2023 first-round pick left tackle Paris Johnson was quite good, finishing ninth in my rankings.

Left guard Evan Brown was excellent in pass protection, which led to him finishing third in my rankings. However, I don’t have good ways of quantifying power in the running game, which is an area he struggled in.

I thought center Hjalte Froholdt was terrible. He finished 29^th in my rankings.

2024 third-round pick right guard Isaiah Adams had a rough rookie campaign. I’m expecting him to show some improvement this year.

Right tackle Jonah Williams struggled with injuries last season, appearing in only six games. Backup Kelvin Beachum was excellent in relief, finishing fourth in my rankings. Williams has more upside and is returning as the starter. Beachup was re-signed to provide quality depth.

The Cardinals also re-signed Will Hernandez to provide further quality depth. He’s still recovering from an ACL tear and might start the season on the PUP list.

The Cardinals made a number of moves to bolster their defense. They signed premium free-agent nose tackle Dalvin Tomlinson (three sacks, 34 hits+hurries). He’ll start alongside free-agent pickup defensive end Calais Campbell (five sacks, 42 hits+hurries).

Campbell was drafted by the Cardinals in the second round back in 2008. He’ll turn 39 before week one kicks off. I guess you can go home again.

2024 first-round pick defensive end Darius Robinson will complete the defensive line. A calf injury effectively wrecked Robinson’s rookie campaign. Robinson is oversized at edge. I am sure the Cardinals would welcome his power attacking the line of scrimmage.

2023 sixth-round pick Dante Stills (4.5 sacks, 22 hits+hurries) L.J. Collier (3.5 sacks, 18 hits+hurries) will provide defensive line depth.

So will rookie first-round pick Walter Nolen once he returns from the PUP list (calf injury):

Walter Nolen: 6’4″, 296, 32.5-inch arms. Skipped most of the drills.

Nolen was an absolute master at creating pressure. Sacks, tackles behind the line of scrimmage, forcing the quarterback out of the pocket. Nolen did it all, and he did it against the top competition in college football.

We can quibble about his size or length. Nolen’s technique is still a bit raw. That’s something his new coaching staff will correct and refine. I know I trust Nolen to produce in the NFL. Top-20 value.

The Cardinals signed edge-rusher Josh Sweat (eight sacks, 46 hits+hurries) for $38M guaranteed to help juice the pass rush.

Sweat will be joined by Zaven Collins (five sacks, 25 hits+hurries), Baron Browning (two sacks, 20 hits+hurries), and 2023 sixth-round pick Dante Stills (4.5 sacks. 22 hits+hurries). At 270 pounds, Collins is oversized as well.

Rookie third-round pick Jordan Burch will provide depth:

Jordan Burch: 6’4″, 279, 33-inch arms. Freakish athleticism (4.67-forty, 20+MPH playing speed). 8.5 sacks, 11 tackles for loss in ten games last season at Oregon. Played through multiple injuries.

His film was… uninspiring. We’re dealing with a player who has the physical gifts to dominate and… he just didn’t. Part of it was poor technique and a lack of discipline. Part of it was he didn’t have the ability to turn his awesome weight room power into awesome football power.

Burch is a planet theory all-star, with decent high-level production. And I have to admit I watched his film in that context. Expectations were high. But perhaps I am thinking about him the wrong way.

Burch provides tremendous versatility. He can work off the edge or inside. His run-stopping power will play from day one. He’ll need to develop better pass-rush skills to take full advantage of his athleticism. And the big thing that strikes me: In the NFL he can play with high energy for a limited number of snaps. Less will be asked of him. Perhaps that will help him reach his full potential. Or perhaps I’m just a sucker for large, athletic men. Mid-day two value.

(Editor’s note: Two more downsides that I should have noted initially. First, Burch will turn 24 in October. He had 7.5 sacks in his first four seasons before finally breaking out in 2024. The second is that he has a history of leg injuries that will need to be evaluated by your medical staff.)

Between Burch, Collins, and Robinson, it’s pretty clear that the Cardinals think the Packers are onto something with oversized defensive ends.

Free-agent pickup inside linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither will pair with Mack Wilson. Both players did a decent job in coverage last season. Neither are premium athletes, which is a concern on a defense that lacks speed in the front-seven. Enter rookie fourth-round pick Cody Simon:

Cody Simon: Fast but undersized. Simon broke out last season for the Buckeyes, averaged seven and a half tackles per game, with seven sacks and 13 tackles for loss. Those are reasonable numbers for an edge rusher.

I was expecting to be wowed by his film. Perhaps that’s on me. There’s a reason Simon had trouble cracking the starting lineup at Ohio State. His tackling proved to be unreliable. His range was smaller than his raw speed would suggest. I felt like I wanted more from him than he could give.

But the production was there. He had two sacks in the playoff win over Oregon. He’s learned how to knife through traffic and arrive at the ballcarrier. I have no doubt Simon can contribute in the NFL, particularly on special teams. Early round three value.

Simon looks to be a solid pickup for the Cardinals.

Rookie second-round pick cornerback Will Johnson slipped in the draft due to injury concerns about his knee:

Will Johnson: 6’2″, 194. Two pick-sixes in six games for Michigan before a turf toe injury ended his 2024 campaign.

Johnson is a highly athletic ballhawk. He’ll aggressively jump underneath routes. Solid press coverage skills. Johnson is versatile and can excel in either man or zone coverage schemes. Having said that, his skills are better suited for zone.

His tackling skills will never make you confuse him for a safety. He’ll also need to make his grabbing less obvious lest NFL officials start to notice.

There’s one other thing. He hasn’t run a 40 post-injury. If I knew he still had his long speed, I’d feel comfortable taking him in the top 10. But the rumors are he’s running in the high 4.5s, low 4.6s. That will make him a pigeon until he proves he can match NFL speed.

I love Johnson’s film. I just wish I knew what we were getting with him physically. Top-10 value if you’re confident he’ll return to the low 4.4s.

Early indications are that Johnson is back to form. He’ll start the season as the #1CB for the Cardinals.

2024 second-round pick Max Melton will start across from Johnson. Melton’s rookie campaign wasn’t quite what the Cardinals were hoping for. He has elite speed and was a ballhawk in college. Hopefully he’ll celebrate his first professional interception this year.

2023 third-round pick nickelback Garrett Williams was excellent last season. He appears to be a budding star in the making.

2024 third-round pick Elijah Jones and rookie fifth-round pick Denzel Burke will provide depth:

Denzel Burke: 5’11”, 186, 4.48-forty.

Sometimes you watch the wrong game for a player and it’s hard to reset your views on them. In Burke’s case, his game at Oregon was rough. Burke started 35 games at Ohio State. That’s impressive. But after a pretty good 2023 campaign, he failed to back it up 2024.

I will say he looked polished. Excellent run support for his size. Plenty of experience with both man and zone responsibilities. Better at zone than man though.

Burke just doesn’t strike me as an NFL-level starting cornerback. Maybe I’m wrong. It’s not easy to hold down a starting job at tOSU, but I see him as a day-three depth pickup.

Strong safety Buddha Baker is excellent. His range and power in the running game helped keep the Cardinals’ defense respectable.

Free safety Jalen Thompson is in a contract year. That’s rough, as he regressed in 2024. Back in 2023 he had four interceptions and some impressive film. Last year he had neither. He’ll be competing with 2024 fourth-round pick Dadrion Taylor-Demerson for playing time.

There is the possibility that the Cardinals will have a very good and young athletic secondary this season. An improved pass-rush would be much appreciated as well.

Punter Blake Gillikin is pretty good. Kicker Chad Ryland is not, although he may end up having some value as a kickoff specialist.

Greg Dortch and DeeJay Dallas will handle the punt and kick returns for the Cardinals. I’m a wee bit concerned about the coverage units, but otherwise the Cardinals’ special teams should be fine.

The Cardinals are a potential riser this year. The defense has made a ton of moves to improve the pass rush and bolster the secondary. Better playcalling would allow for a more efficient and effective passing game. An easier schedule should help as well.

But… I can’t bring myself to fully believe. I’ve seen too much from Kyler Murray. And the defense, for all of their upgrades, still lacks team speed. I’m not sold. 9-8.

Los Angeles Rams

2024 Record: 10-7

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 10.16

NYT/Athletic Wins: 9.7

DVOA Wins: 9.1

FPI Wins: 9.5

Market Estimates:

Market Wins: 9.67

Implied Pythag: 56.53%

Quarterback Matthew Stafford turned 37 in February. Thankfully, any decline he’s suffered has been gradual:

2023: 3,965 yards, 24 TD, 11 INT, 6.8 NY/P, 15.0% DVOA, 953 DYAR (in 15 games)

2024: 3,762 yards, 20 TD, 8 INT, 6.5 NY/P, 12.3% DVOA, 851 DYAR (in 16 games)

The Rams came tantalizingly close to knocking off the Eagles in the divisional round. I can totally understand Stafford’s desire to run it back and see what he can do given one more opportunity.

2023 fifth-round pick Puka Nacua has developed into the Rams’ #1WR:

2023: 105 receptions, 1,486 yards, +0.0 +/-, 11.3% DVOA, 306 DYAR

2024: 79 receptions, 990 yards, +6.9 +/-, 17.6% DVOA, 255 DYAR (in 11 games)

Nacua also ran the ball well in some high leverage situations (11 carries, 46 yards, 19.6% DVOA, 41 DYAR).

The Rams would love to get a healthy season out of Nacua.

The Rams have decided to move on from an aging and ineffective Cooper Kupp (-10.8% DVOA, 15 DYAR). They have replaced him with premium free-agent pickup Davante Adams:

2022: 100 receptions, 1,516 yards, -6.3 +/-, 4.0% DVOA, 236 DYAR

2023: 103 receptions, 1,144 yards, -6.2 +/-, -10.1% DVOA, 36 DYAR

2024: 85 receptions, 1,063 yards, -5.9 +/-, -9.9% DVOA, 33 DYAR (in 14 games)

It’s difficult to know how much Adams has declined and how much of his drop in production is due to being in poor situations. Adams will turn 33 in December. This is likely the last chance for him to rejuvenate his career.

Tutu Atwell has graduated into the #3WR job:

2023: 39 receptions, 483 yards, -1.3 +/-, -2.6% DVOA, 58 DYAR (in 16 games)

2024: 42 receptions, 562 yards, +3.4 +/-, 11.7% DVOA, 124 DYAR

Both he and the Rams are excited to see what he can do with a larger workload.

2024 sixth-round pick Jordan Whittington played well in a small sample:

2024: 22 receptions, 293 yards, +1.0 +/-, 25.3% DVOA, 87 DYAR (in 15 games)

Whittington also did a nice job returning kicks. The dude is well on his way towards earning a second contract.

#1TE Tyler Higbee missed most of last season as he recovered from a torn ACL. However, he’s produced -11 DYAR over his past three seasons in Los Angeles (35 games). At no point has he been an impact player for the offense.

Of course, I should note how the non-Tyler Higbee tight ends performed for Los Angeles last season:

2024: 43 receptions, 420 yards, -6.5* +/-, -18.5% DVOA, -60 DYAR

*Estimated

In that light, Higbee’s -8.2% DVOA (-11 DYAR) over the past three seasons seems reasonable. Also, it explains why the Rams added rookie second-round pick Terrance Ferguson:

Terrance Ferguson: 6’5, 247, 9.25-inch hands. Nice combine. 85 receptions for 1,005 yards and 9 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Oregon.

Full disclosure: Ferguson’s film made me laugh out loud. It started with his… uninspired run blocking. Then it was him losing in contested catch situations. If he did catch it, his evasive skills were, well… laughable.

Look, it’s not all bad. He showed an impressive ability to get upfield. He can present an elite catch radius. Ferguson earned Oregon’s trust.

But not mine. I’m not touching him until day three, and that’s if I need roster depth.

Sure, I didn’t love Ferguson, but perhaps he can make an immediate impact in Los Angeles. Opportunities are available.

2022 fifth-round pick running back Kyren Williams saw a lot of action for the Rams last season:

2023: 277 squid, 1,350 yards, 13.2% DVOA, 272 DYAR (in 12 games)

2024: 356 squid, 1,481 yards, 2.0% DVOA, 177 DYAR (in 16 games)

I am glad the Rams rewarded him with a new deal. The alternative was for them to run him into the ground and then wave him goodbye in free agency.

2024 third-round pick Blake Corum played sparingly:

2024: 66 squid, 265 yards, 0.3% DVOA, 37 DYAR

With Williams getting a new deal, Corum will need to impress the coaching staff to earn more playing time.

Rookie fourth-round pick Jarquez Hunter will push for playing time.

The Rams’ offensive line was wracked by injuries last season. Despite that, they did a fine job of keeping Stafford upright and powering the running game.

Left tackle Alaric Jackson finished fifth in my rankings. The Rams saw the same things I did and rewarded him with a new deal with $30M guaranteed. He has been dealing with some nagging issues this preseason (blood clots, a tailbone injury.) The Rams hope he can start week one.

2023 second-round pick left guard Steve Avila struggled last season. He had a solid rookie campaign and battled injuries last year. Hopefully he’ll be able to bounce back in 2025.

Free-agent pickup Coleman Shelton is going to take over the center job from 2024 sixth-round pick Beaux Limmer. Limmer wasn’t great last season, but I have to say that I didn’t see Shelton as being any better. Perhaps Shelton simply didn’t enjoy playing in Chicago. He was fine with the Rams in 2023.

Right guard Kevin Dotson was awesome, finishing first in my rankings. He finished second in 2023. I just think he’s neat.

Right tackle Rob Havenstein finished sixth in my rankings. That’s despite dealing with some pretty significant injuries that forced him to miss six games. He finished fourth in my rankings in 2023.

I will note that his shoulders remain a concern.

Free-agent pickup D.J. Humphries and 2023 fifth-round pick Warren McClendon will provide depth at tackle.

Over the past three seasons, the Rams’ defense has declined from 18^th, to 22^nd, to 26^th in DVOA. Aaron Donald’s retirement in March 2024 didn’t help. The Rams didn’t have a ton of resources to spare, so they’ve made a few targeted moves.

They signed nose tackle Poona Ford (three sacks, 21 hits+hurries). Hopefully Ford will help the defense shut down opposing running games.

Ford will line up alongside 2023 third-round pick Kobie Turner (eight sacks, 45 hits+hurries) and 2024 second-round pick Braden Fiske (8.5 sacks, 44 hits+hurries). Truth be told, that’s some serious disruption from a 3-4 defensive line. Fiske in particular should be proud of his rookie campaign.

2024 sixth-round pick Tyler Davis and rookie fifth-round pick Ty Hamilton will provide depth.

2024 first-round pick Jared Verse helped the Rams deliver more pressure, if not more sacks (4.5 sacks, 79 hits+hurries). He won Defensive Rookie of the Year. Verse will start across from 2023 third-round pick Byron Young (7.5 sacks, 42 hits+hurries).

One thing I want to note about Verse is that if he can improve his tackling technique, he can develop into an absolute monster against the run. Coffee is for closers, kid.

2023 fifth-round pick Nick Hampton and rookie third-round pick Josaiah Stewart will provide depth:

Josaiah Stewart: 6’1, 249, 32-inch arms. 4.70-forty. 12.5 sacks and 16 tackles for loss at Coastal Carolina in 2021, 8.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss for Michigan last season. Stewart has developed into a premium edge-rusher.

If he had the length teams covet, we’d be talking about a first-round talent. His film shows a player capable of flummoxing offensive linemen. His athleticism had them on their heels. His set of moves is remarkably refined. But he’s undersized, with a length disadvantage.

He’ll need a team that is comfortable with his limitations. He’s never going to be able to seal the edge. The size and power just aren’t there. He needs to be the one attacking the line of scrimmage. If you can use him as a pass-rush specialist, I think he’ll produce. Late third-round value.

We haven’t seen much from Hampton. Seven career tackles is not an inspiring resume.

The Rams simply do not invest a lot of resources in their off-ball linebackers. Their options are 2024 UDFA Omar Speights, budget free-agent pickup Nate Landman, and Troy Reeder.

I’m guessing Speights and Landman will be the nominal starters. We’ll see if someone can step up and prove to be more than a replacement-level talent.

The Rams appear to have a respectable pass-rush. They do not have a respectable back end. This is not the free-agent contract of a starter-level NFL cornerback (Ahkello Witherspoon). The Rams actually benched #2CB Witherspoon last season which… jives with his contract.

#1CB Darious Williams was hit-and-miss last season. The hit rate was good enough to produce reasonable results. He’s not a natural fit as a #1CB, though.

2022 sixth-round pick Quinton Lake impressed in the slot last season. The Rams drafted him to play safety. At this point, I think he’s found his niche.

2024 fourth-round pick Cobie Durant was clutch for the Rams last season. Overall, his numbers were decent. He’s a fine dime cornerback.

The Rams snagged 2023 first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes Jr. off of waivers last year. Forbes was an absolute bust in Washington. He was also a reach. Injuries and poor play led to his dismissal. We’ll see if he can rebuild his career in Los Angeles.

Safety Kam Curl had three interceptions his rookie season (2020), including an 88-yard pick-six. He has not had an interception since then. His pass coverage has been fine, I think it’s just a fluke.

2024 third-round pick Kamren Kinchen had four interceptions in an exciting rookie campaign. He also was involved in a number of highlights that… were not for the Rams. Perhaps this year he’ll be more consistent and less flammable.

2024 UDFA Jaylen McCollough was low-key the Rams’ secret weapon last season. I didn’t mention him in my 2024 NFL Preview. He was not on anyone’s radar. He finished with four interceptions in limited usage. He only allowed a single broken tackle while providing quality run support. Nicknamed “Tank,” he’ll be the player on the Rams I’ll be rooting for the hardest this season.

The Rams’ special teams were lousy last season. That was a huge improvement over how historically awful they had been previously.

2024 sixth-round pick kicker Joshua Karty was a bit below average. He did flash a powerful leg, so perhaps he’ll develop more consistency this season.

2023 seventh-round pick punter Ethan Evans went from having incompetent coverage in 2023 to competent coverage last season. It made an enormous difference. Hopefully, the Rams can maintain that going forward.

Jordan Whittington is a decent kick returner. We’ll see if Xavier Smith or Britain Covey returns punts. It’s not a huge deal either way. Fixing the kicking and punting units was worth a full win over the course of the season for Los Angeles. “Just don’t suck” is not an inspiring motto, but it’s where we are.

The NFC West appears to be softer than at any time in recent memory. Stafford has returned for what might be one last hurrah. Adding Davante Adams provides for some interesting drama as well. This roster is built for a fun time, not for a long time. 10-7.

San Francisco 49ers

2024 Record: 6-11

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 8.95

NYT/Athletic Wins: 10.4

DVOA Wins: 11.2

FPI Wins: 9.55

Market Estimates:

Market Wins: 10.55

Implied Pythag: 56.86%

Last season, the 49ers were 5-4 before injuries well and truly wrecked their season. They finished a woeful 6-11. That is in the past. The 49ers are prepared to make another run to try to reclaim NFC dominance. Of course, the first step would be to reclaim NFC West dominance. To that end, they re-signed (star?) quarterback Brock Purdy. With $100M guaranteed, the former Mr. Irrelevant has finally gotten paid.

2023: 4,280 yards, 31 TD, 11 INT, 8.8 NY/P, 42.5% DVOA, 1,656 DYAR (in 16 games)

2024: 3,864 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT, 7.7 NY/P, 15.2% DVOA, 927 DYAR (in 15 games)

That was some fine work from Purdy given the carnage all around him. This year, the 49ers are hoping his wide receiver corps can stay on the field.

That starts with #1WR Brandon Aiyuk who… is currently recovering from a torn ACL and is expected to start the season on the PUP list:

2022: 78 receptions, 1,015 yards, +2.1 +/-, 16.4% DVOA, 262 DYAR

2023: 75 receptions, 1,342 yards, +14.8 +/-, 45.5% DVOA, 487 DYAR (in 16 games)

2024: 25 receptions, 374 yards, -1.8 +/-, -8.3% DVOA, 17 DYAR (in seven games)

Yeah, last year was rough for Aiyuk. He missed the preseason while he was fighting for a new deal. He wasn’t in game shape early, and then he tore his ACL. The hope is that he’ll return at full strength early this season.

(Editor’s note: Coach Shanahan confirmed he’ll miss at least the first four weeks, and possibly a few more as he recovers.)

Jauan Jennings has worked his way up to #2WR in San Francisco:

2023: 19 receptions, 265 yards, +0.2 +/-, 8.0% DVOA, 52 DYAR (in 13 games)

2024: 77 receptions, 975 yards, +5.4 +/-, 8.6% DVOA, 185 DYAR (in 15 games)

Jennings broke out in the 2023 playoffs (10 receptions, 111 yards, 1 TD) and kept it rolling last season.

2024 first-round pick Ricky Pearsall got shot in his chest last August. As such, we can forgive him having a slow start to his career:

2024: 31 receptions, 400 yards, +2.3 +/-, 12.6% DVOA, 92 DYAR (in 11 games)

I thought Pearsall was a reach when the 49ers selected him. However, I have to pull for a guy who came back from getting shot in the chest.

Free-agent pickup Demarcus Robinson will take over as the #4WR:

2024: 31 receptions, 505 yards, -1.9 +/-, 9.1% DVOA, 118 DYAR

Robinson is a natural deep threat. He’ll miss the first three games of the season for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

The 49ers have something I’ve never seen before. There are three young wide receivers ostensibly competing for the #5WR job. In reality, the battlefield may prove to be who is most reliable returning punts. The candidates:

Incumbent 2024 fourth-round pick Jacob Cowing:

Cowing struggled last season, fumbling twice, losing one. He only had four receptions, so he needs to make an impact on special teams.

Rookie seventh-round pick Junior Bergen:

Electric highlight reel. Note, the stats listed on YouTube are wrong. He had eight punt return touchdowns and one kickoff return touchdown during his time at Montana.

Rookie fourth-round pick Jordan Watkins:

Watkins did not make my top-300 prospects list. As usual, when one of those guys gets drafted early, I always check the athletic testing results. As usual, we’re looking at sub-4.4 speed. Watkins might be able to earn his paychecks working out of the slot. We’ll see what the 49ers have in mind.

(Update: Junior Bergen is on the practice squad. Jacob Cowing is on IR. Watkins didn’t win the job either, because the 49ers traded for Skyy Moore. Moore missed last season with a core muscle injury. He had sucked previously to that. Given that he had played with Patrick Mahomes, and was coached by Andy Reid, I am keeping my expectations very low.)

(Update 2.0: Given the injury and suspension issues, the 49ers have activated Russell Gage from the practice squad. Gage hasn’t caught a pass in the NFL since 2022.)

As I noted last year, tight end George Kittle is the 49ers’ true #1WR:

2022: 60 receptions, 765 yards, +3.1 +/-, 22.6% DVOA, 178 DYAR (in 15 games)

2023: 65 receptions, 1,020 yards, +4.9 +/-, 38.7% DVOA, 268 DYAR (in 16 games)

2024: 78 receptions, 1,106 yards, +14.8 +/-, 59.1% DVOA, 426 DYAR (in 15 games)

Kittle ascended and was rewarded with a new deal. He’s also a quality blocker, so we’re looking at the complete package. Having said that, the 49ers signed blocking specialist Luke Farrell so Kittle doesn’t have to block much more than necessary.

The 49ers are happy to give #1RB Christian McCaffrey a mulligan for last season:

2022: 352 squid, 1,880 yards, 7.6% DVOA, 323 DYAR

2023: 355 squid, 2,023 yards, 22.2% DVOA, 562 DYAR (in 16 games)

2024: 69 squid, 348 yards, 10.9% DVOA, 61 DYAR (in four games)

McCaffrey was never healthy. He turned 29 in June and is expected to be 100% this season. If that’s the case, once Aiyuk returns this offense looks loaded yet again.

2024 fourth-round pick Isaac Guerendo is the highest returning committee member from last year’s 49ers backfield:

2024: 100 squid, 572 yards, 3.7% DVOA, 62 DYAR (in 16 games)

Guerendo is currently dealing with a shoulder issue.

Rookie fifth-round pick Jordan James will provide depth.

(Update: The 49ers traded for Brian Robinson to provide depth. Robinson played through a number of nagging injuries last season:

2023: 221 squid, 1,101 yards, 0.4% DVOA, 127 DYAR (in 15 games)

2024: 212 squid, 958 yards, -3.9% DVOA, 54 DYAR (in 15 games)

If healthy, he’s somewhere between “league-average” and “fungible.”)

Another key concern for the 49ers’ offense is the health of left tackle Trent Williams. He missed seven games last season. Williams turned 37 in July. He’s a top-10 player at the position and a difference maker when healthy.

It looks like Ben Bartch will win the left guard job. 2022 fourth-round pick Spencer Buford and 2022 sixth-round pick Nick Zakelj were also in the running.

Zakelj wasn’t bad in limited usage last season. We know Buford is not a great option from his 2023 performance.

Bartch has had a rough career due to numerous injuries. I had thought he was a practice squad player. Perhaps he’s impressed the 49ers. Or perhaps when you have three left guards, you don’t have any.

Center Jake Brendel does a pretty good job in the running game. That’s a blessing since he finished 24^th in my rankings. He is not great in pass protection.

2024 third-round pick right guard Dominick Puni had an excellent rookie campaign. He only finished 16^th in my rankings, but there’s more to the story. He excelled at run blocking, which was a concern of mine coming into the season. His pass protection was pretty good. He just needs to clean up his play and cut down on the penalties. Puni looks to have been a nice find for San Francisco.

Right tackle Colton McKivitz finished 32^nd in my rankings. He’s never excelled in pass protection.

The depth here isn’t great. Losing McKivitz would be bad. Losing Williams would be potentially devastating.

Free-agency did a number on the 49ers’ pass-rush. They lost defensive tackle Maliek Collins (five sacks, 45 hits+hurries) and defensive end Leonard Floyd (8.5 sacks, 42 hits+hurries).

The 49ers will try to replace Floyd with rookie first-round pick Mykel Williams:

Mykel Williams: 6’5, 260, 34.625-inch arms. Good speed for his size. Had 14 sacks and 23 tackles for loss in three seasons at Georgia.

Williams has a rare combination of size and power. I am not sure he has “planet theory” athleticism. Williams made a ton of plays via effort and not giving up. Fewer with pure explosion than I would have liked or expected.

I should note that Williams demonstrated elite conditioning at Georgia. His fourth quarter film was impressive.

Williams is expected to come off the board around the middle of round one. One of the main reasons for that is his age. Williams won’t turn 21 until June. It’s possible I undervalue age as I wouldn’t want to take Williams in the top 20. My guess is he’ll be gone by then.

Williams will line up across from star defensive end Nick Bosa (nine sacks, 75 hits+hurries). Bosa will get most of the attention, so we’ll see if Williams can take advantage of the opportunities.

The depth here has already taken a beating. Yetur Gross-Matos (four sacks, 16 hits+hurries) is on the PUP list. Sam Okuayinonu (three sacks, 18 hits+hurries) injured his groin. 2023 fifth-round pick Robert Beal has injured his groin as well.

The wildcard here is trade acquisition Bryce Huff. Huff’s sacks by year:

2020: 2 (Jets)

2021: 2 (Jets)

2022: 3.5 (Jets)

2023: 10 (Jets)

2024: 2.5 (Eagles)

Suffice it to say that the Eagles were disappointed. Huff is now reunited with defensive coordinator Robert Salah. A return to his 2023 form would be huge for San Francisco.

There really is no replacing Maliek Collins. Defensive tackle Kevin Givens (3.5 sacks, 8 hits+hurries) will likely miss the start of the season with a pectoral injury.

With Jordan Elliot dealing with a back injury, youth may be served. Rookie second-round pick Alfred Collins should see plenty of playing time:

Alfred Collins: 6’6, 332, 34.75-inch arms. I wonder what goes into the decision to do certain drills.

Collins has the size and length teams covet. Does he have the athleticism? I’m not sure. I can tell you he has NFL-level power. He’s not just big. He bullied SEC offensive linemen.

It wouldn’t be fair to say Collins played slow. He just didn’t have the kind of explosion that interior defensive linemen use to break into the backfield. Collins might be able to win with length and power.

His range isn’t what I’d like. You can’t go through Collins, but you can take the bypass. One other thing: Collins will turn 24 in October. He presents elite size and power, but perhaps not much else. An early day-three depth pickup.

He may be joined by rookie fourth-round pick CJ West:

CJ West: 6’1, 316, 31.5-inch arms. That is one fast bowling ball.

A lot of defensive linemen run into problems with leverage, playing too high, especially when fatigued. That will not be a problem for CJ “Low Man” West. His issue is length. If he doesn’t make first contact off of the snap, it’s tough for him to get penetration and make a play.

There’s also the issue of broken tackles. West had difficulty snagging runners and getting them to the ground.

Look, round animals are cute. This one is surprisingly athletic. He’s a nice-day three depth piece, and one I’ll be rooting for.

I kind of dig this pairing. 2022 sixth-round pick Kalia Davis will be in the mix as well.

The linebacker corps shall miss Dre Greenlaw. After injuring himself in the Super Bowl, he missed almost all of last season. He’s now in Denver.

The good news is middle linebacker Fred Warner is back. He remains an All-Pro and a key defensive leader.

When in the 4-3, Warner will be flanked by free-agent pickup Luke Gifford and 2023 sixth-round pick Dee Winters. Winters does not have NFL-level power, so he better develop into an LB/safety hybrid. Gifford is a mediocrity.

Rookie third-round pick Nick Martin will provide depth. Martin averaged 10 tackles per game for Oklahoma State in 2023. He struggled with injuries last season. If he’s fully healthy, he gives the 49ers a boost of athleticism.

The 49ers have to make some tough decisions in regard to their secondary. #1CB Deommodore Lenoir is excellent. He has mostly played in the slot but can move outside as well.

If Lenoir moves outside, rookie third-round pick Upton Stout would be in line to take over at nickelback. Stout is fast and explosive. I thought he was a bit of a reach, which is par for the course for the 49ers.

2024 second-round pick Renardo Green will likely line up across from Lenoir. He had an impressive rookie campaign that he’ll try to build on.

2023 fifth-round pick Darrell Luter will provide depth.

2024 fourth-round pick safety Malik Mustapha is out due to an ACL tear he suffered late last season. I am not sure when he’ll be available to return. He had shown some impressive skills and I was looking forward to seeing how he would develop.

With Mustapha out, it’s unclear who will start at safety. 2023 third-round pick Ji’Ayir Brown is the incumbent. Free-agent pickups Jason Pinnock and Rookie fifth-round pick Marques Sigle are in the running.

Pinnock is lousy. Sigle is fast, but I had a seventh-round grade on him (at best). I am skeptical he’s prepared to start in the NFL.

As for Brown, he had some nice moments, but too many mistakes led to him getting benched. At this point, the 49ers lack better options, so here’s hoping he develops more consistency.

(Update: Sigle and Pinnock might start. That’s not a great sign for Ji’Ayir Brown.)

2023 third-round pick kicker Jake Moody sucked last season. He survived a training camp battle, so perhaps he has addressed his issues. Then again, he was pretty bad in 2023. I’m reasonably confident that if not for the miracle that was Brock Purdy, GM John Lynch would have been fired years ago.

Punter Thomas Morstead turned 39 in March. I hope the 49ers’ coverage units are on point.

As I mentioned previously, there’s a three-way battle for the punt return job. Jacob Cowing has the early edge.

(Update: Skyy Moore appears to have won it.)

Early indications are that Isaac Guerendo will return kicks. Skyy Moore is also in the mix.

I have to say that the 49ers’ special teams have been poor the last couple of years. I’m not sure they are looking much better this season.

One thing I haven’t mentioned earlier is that the 49ers have a historically soft schedule. If they get their shit together, they can compete for the #1 seed in the NFC.

I am confident that Purdy is a legitimate upper tier quarterback. Tight end George Kittle is elite. If the wide receiver corps is solid, and running back Christian McCaffrey is healthy, and left tackle Trent Williams is healthy…

Look. Every team can be decimated by injuries. The 49ers got wrecked last season. I am not expecting lighting to strike twice. But I am concerned that the pass-rush is thin. The linebacker corps is relying pretty heavily on Fred Warner. If Warner, Bosa, or Lenoir go down, the 49ers’ defense is gonna have a bad time.

But if things work out? The 49ers could romp. I’m expecting things to (mostly) be alright. 11-6.

Seattle Seahawks

2024 Record: 10-7

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 8.01

NYT/Athletic Wins: 8.6

DVOA Wins: 7.9

FPI Wins: 8.05

Market Estimates:

Market Wins: 8.26

Implied Pythag: 46.71%

Imagine going 10-7 vs. the 4^th hardest schedule in the NFL (per DVOA) and missing the playoffs. That sounds aggravating. Perhaps you’d be angry enough to want to burn it down and rebuild.

I don’t think that’s what happened in Seattle. I feel like the sense in Seattle was that the Seahawks had gone as far as the current roster would take them. To step forward, they would have to risk stepping backward.

So, the offense has seen the departure of three major skill players:

QB Geno Smith: -2.1% DVOA, 365 DYAR

WR Tyler Lockett: 6.2% DVOA, 118 DYAR

WR DK Metcalf: 0.7% DVOA, 114 DYAR

All three have replacements with major questions. Let’s start with Smith’s replacement, Sam Darnold:

2024: 4,319 yards, 35 TD, 12 INT, 6.7 NY/P, 12.3% DVOA, 911 DYAR

Darnold had shined in a small sample in Carolina in 2022 (23.2% DVOA, 271 DYAR in six games). He stank in San Francisco in 2023 (-0.7% DVOA, 22 DYAR in ten games).

2024 truly was his breakout season. And Minnesota let him walk away. Why? Two reasons. The first is that they have 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy. Darnold wasn’t supposed to start for Minnesota last year.

The second is that Darnold collapsed late last season when the games mattered most. He produced 152 net yards of offense vs. Detroit with the #1 seed on the line. He produced 182 net yards of offense against Los Angeles in the wild card round. It was miserable.

But, before that, he was aces. So, who is the real Sam Darnold?

Let me suggest that if your coaching staff can give him a clear plan to execute, Darnold excels. He’s a very effective cog in the machine. A lot of the credit has to go to Minnesota’s coaching staff and to wide receiver Justin Jefferson. The truth is had Darnold balled out against Detroit, he would have had a truly excellent season. But he didn’t, and now he’s in Seattle throwing to new teammates.

I should note Darnold was not the only major quarterback addition in Seattle. Rookie third-round

pick Jalen Millroe will be able to develop behind Darnold:

Jalen Milroe: 6’2, 217. Dual-threat quarterback? Hrm. I am 100% confident in Milroe’s legs. Dude ran a 4.37 on Alabama’s pro day. But what about his throwing prowess? Over the past two seasons at Alabama, Milroe threw for 39 touchdowns, ran for 32 touchdowns, and threw 17 interceptions. That’s… not exactly inspiring.

Digging deeper, in 2024 he threw five touchdowns and ten interceptions against SEC competition. That’s brutal. He had issues with decision-making, touch, and accuracy. Apart from that, his play was lovely.

To be fair, Milroe has NFL-level arm strength. He can rip the ball downfield. If he can develop into an NFL-level passer, his legs will provide him with the same type of gravity that Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts produce. But he’ll need to do what Josh Allen did, which is to say he’ll need to be more accurate in the NFL than he was in college. Allen didn’t have Alabama’s coaching staff, so it’s an open question as to whether or not Milroe has that kind of potential.

I will say Milroe feels like a poor man’s Anthony Richardson. Richardson hasn’t exactly lit it up in the NFL, but like Richardson, Milroe is a premium athlete. The weird thing is, Milroe’s accuracy (relative to his peers) increased dramatically the further downfield he threw. If there’s some correctable flaw that fixes his poor short-to-intermediate accuracy and touch, Milroe can be a competent NFL starting quarterback. I don’t know what the fix is, so I would not touch him before round two.

(Editor’s note: There’s some question as to whether Milroe can do what another Alabama quarterback did and become a more accurate passer in the NFL. Jalen Hurts showed significant development in this regard in college. Milroe for the most part has not. With that, Hurts needed top quality coaching and an elite receiver corps to blossom. We’ll see what Milroe gets.)

2023 first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out last season:

2023: 63 receptions, 628 yards, -3.2 +/-, -9.0% DVOA, 26 DYAR

2024: 100 receptions, 1,130 yards, +8.3 +/-, 7.4% DVOA, 209 DYAR

JSN is going to have to adjust to a new offense and a new quarterback. I’m confident he’ll be fine. It’s his new teammates I’m worried about.

The Seahawks were aggressive, signing Cooper Kupp for $17.5M guaranteed. Mind you, that’s cheaper than the new deal DK Metcalf signed after the Seahawks traded him to Pittsburgh. It’s more than Tyler Lockett signed for in Tennessee, although the sense is that bridge had been burned when the Seahawks cut him.

A healthy Cooper Kupp has been a monster. It’s been a while since we’ve seen that version:

2021: 145 receptions, 1,947 yards, +17.3 +/-, 27.6% DVOA, 618 DYAR

2022: 75 receptions, 812 yards, +7.1 +/-, 4.5% DVOA, 132 DYAR (in nine games)

2023: 59 receptions, 737 yards, -3.6 +/-, -0.8% DVOA, 90 DYAR (in 12 games)

2024: 67 receptions, 710 yards, -0.5 +/-, -10.8% DVOA, 15 DYAR (in 12 games)

The Rams lost faith that Kupp will ever return to form. He turned 32 in July. I have to think the thrill is gone and this signing won’t pay off. For Seattle’s sake, I hope I’m wrong.

There’s an open competition for the #3WR job. Seattle signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling:

2023-2024: 40 receptions, 726 yards, -5.1 +/-, -7.0% DVOA, 38 DYAR (in 30 games)

In theory, MVS is a legitimate deep threat. In practice, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(Update: He’s been cut, and is currently on the 49ers practice squad.)

Another option is rookie fifth-round pick Tory Horton:

Tory Horton: 6’2 ½, 196, 9.00-inch hands. 4.41-speed. Over the 2022 & 2023 seasons Horton had 167 receptions for 2,267 yards and 16 touchdowns. He chose to go back to school for a fifth season. Unfortunately, a knee injury ended his season after just six games. The one bit of good news is that it happened early enough for him to run a 40 before the draft.

Horton is a medical red flag, but let’s presume your staff clears him. Horton’s 2023 film showed a player with a nice mix of deep speed, separation, hands, and ball awareness. I can see Horton as an outside receiver with slot versatility.

Horton has a number of bad habits his coaches will need to fix. The biggest is that sometimes he mentally checked out of plays where he wasn’t a main option. His run blocking made me wince. It’s possible that he’ll need more muscle mass to be effective in the NFL. That would help with both run-blocking and against press coverage.

Given his knee injury, Horton is likely going to be available on day three. I see a capable #3WR with some upside. If your medical staff clears him, I’d be looking to take him early in round four.

If Horton is healthy, he’s a nice find for Seattle.

The third option is Jake Bobo. Bobo hasn’t seen the field much for Seattle, with 32 receptions over his two-year career. He’s been fine in limited usage. We’ll see if a shallow depth chart allows for him to see more playing time.

The Seahawks released tight end Noah Fant to make room for 2024 fourth-round pick AJ Barner and rookie second-round pick Elijah Arroyo:

Elijah Arroyo: 6’5, 250, 10.00-inch hands. Arroyo was finally healthy last season, breaking out for 35 receptions, 590 yards, seven touchdowns.

The film suggests he’s a decent athlete. It’s possible that he was still playing through some knee pain last season and that his best is yet to come. His 81+ inch catch radius makes him a reliable safety blanket for his quarterback, Linus Van Pelt style.

Arroyo is also more refined as an inline blocker than his peers in this class. He’ll still need some time to develop in this regard, but I can see this eventually becoming a strength for him.

The biggest issue is whether his knee is a medical red flag. If it is, he could fall to day three (or worse). If not, he looks like a solid round-three value.

I am starting to wonder if the Seahawks’ medical staff is a bit more aggressive than most. As for Barner:

2024: 30 receptions, 245 yards, +1.0 +/-, 14.1% DVOA, 56 DYAR

Barner impressed in limited usage. He’s a decent blocker, so expect him to get the bulk of the snaps while Arroyo develops.

2022 second-round pick running back Kenneth Walker has not lived up to expectations in Seattle:

2023: 256 squid, 1,164 yards, -5.7% DVOA, 53 DYAR (in 15 games)

2024: 206 squid, 872 yards, -5.1% DVOA, 59 DYAR (in 11 games)

2023 second-round pick Zach Charbonnet has fared little better:

2023: 148 squid, 671 yards, -0.9% DVOA, 62 DYAR (in 16 games)

2024: 189 squid, 909 squid, -2.4% DVOA, 65 DYAR

To be fair to both Walker and Charbonnet, it’s not their fault Seattle has spent high picks on running backs instead of fixing an atrocious offensive line.

Mind you, Seattle isn’t just bad at run blocking. Their pass protection is bollocks as well.

The exception to that was 2022 first-round pick left tackle Charles Cross. Cross finished ninth in my rankings. He’s legit.

Rookie first-round pick Grey Zabel will start at left guard:

Grey Zabel: 6’6, 312, 32.25-inch arms. Very good athlete. Zabel has played four different offensive line positions at North Dakota State. I am guessing he’ll be given a chance to play center in the NFL.

Zabel did a fine job at tackle, against FCS competition. I don’t see him as having the length to play outside in the NFL.

He could play guard, but I’m not sure if he has NFL-level power to do so. Zabel’s best strength is his technical play. He reads plays and moves quickly. Those are skills he can use in the middle of the line.

It’s tough when a player hasn’t faced the kind of competition he’ll face in the NFL and isn’t a physical freak. I am confident Zabel will be able to hold down a starting job in the NFL. Without some confidence as to where that will be, I’m not touching him in the first round.

(Editor’s note: There are others who have Zabel at OT4 in the class. That’s a solid first-round grade. If he can play outside in the NFL, that’s reasonable. I just don’t share that confidence.)

Zabel will hopefully provide some stability.

(Editor’s note: Seattle has been exceptionally happy with what they’ve seen from Zabel this preseason.)

2023 fifth-round pick center Olu Oluwatimi was lousy in limited usage last season. My expectations are low.

2023 fourth-round pick right guard Anthony Bradford finished 44^th in my rankings last season. It was brutal.

2022 third-round pick Abraham Lucas was terrible as well. He was returning from a knee injury and started last season on the PUP list.

There’s plenty of battle-tested depth on the roster. Just don’t ask how the battles went.

Seattle’s defense was pretty good last season, finishing 10^th in DVOA.

Defensive end Leonard Williams was superb (11 sacks, 50 hits+hurries). Jarran Reed wasn’t bad (4.5 sacks, 38 hits+hurries).

2024 first-round pick nose tackle Byron Murphy was not as disruptive as the Seahawks had hoped (0.5 sacks, 14 hits+hurries). He’s the starter now and will need to step up.

2023 fifth-round pick Mike Morris and rookie fifth-round pick Rylie Mills will provide defensive line depth.

Rylie Mills: 6’5, 291, 32.625-inch arms. Flashed freakish athleticism for his size. A torn ACL ended his playoff run early.

Mills will turn 24 in August. He’s a medical red flag. He was also a highly productive player. I have no idea what his prognosis is. I just think that if he’s healthy, he’ll be able to produce while on his rookie contract.

(Update: Mills will start the season on injured reserve while he recovers from his torn ACL.)

I’m intrigued by the addition of edge-rusher DeMarcus Lawrence. A Lisfranc injury ended his 2024 season after just four games. He had gotten off to a hot start, with three sacks. We’ll see if he can provide an upgrade.

Lawrence will be joining 2022 second-round pick Boye Mafe (six sacks, 44 hits+hurries) and 2023 second-round pick Derick Hall (eight sacks, 55 hits+hurries) in the edge rotation.

Uchenna Nwosu will round out the rotation. That is, if he can get on the field. He has 12.5 sacks in 29 games over his past three seasons in Seattle.

The Seahawks would like Ernest Jones and 2024 fourth-round pick Tyrice Knight to return as the starters at inside linebacker. Jones is a force against the run. Knight provides the range and athleticism that the defense needs. He’s dealing with multiple ailments and his availability for week one is questionable.

The depth here is of the special teams variety, so let’s hope Knight feels better soon.

The division rival Rams drafted, and then waived, rookie fifth-round pick Chris Paul Jr.:

Chris Paul Jr.: Undersized, with poor agility. That’s a rough combo.

Paul shined in a strong Ole Miss defense last season. On film he showed excellent play recognition and reaction speed. Frankly, he looked more agile on film than he did in testing.

He also has significant special teams experience. He should be able to contribute there immediately.

What I didn’t see from Paul was anything that separates him from the pack to be worthy of a day-two selection. Day-three depth pickup.

He’ll start the season on the Seahawks practice squad.

2022 fifth-round pick cornerback Riq Woolen burst on the scene with six interceptions, finishing third in the DROY voting. He regressed in 2023, with two interceptions and mediocre results. 2024 was much better. He only had three interceptions, but he learned to be more selective with his aggression.

#2CB Josh Jobe is a nice story, working his way up from the practice squad. Unfortunately, he doesn’t actually have starter-level talent. Seattle is a cornerback short. Look for opponents to attack Jobe whenever possible.

2023 first-round pick Devon Witherspoon has developed into an elite nickelback. It’s become very difficult to create separation from him.

Safety Julian Love was excellent last season. Three interceptions, solid coverage, and better run support than I was expecting. He was a complete package.

Love will against pair with 2022 fourth-round Coby Bryant. Bryant did not impress me last season. This is a contract year for Bryant and his last chance to prove he should start in the NFL.

My sense is that the Seahawks will play rookie second-round pick Nick Emmanwori wherever they have an opening:

Nick Emmanwori: 6’3, 220, 4.38-forty. One of the best combines of all time.

Emmanwori’s athleticism blows away the competition. Malaki Starks and Xavier Watts are not in the same league. The only ding is that Emmanwori didn’t do the agility drills.

It’s not just athleticism, though. There’s also the size and length. Emmanwori is legitimately better than the NFL prototype. He’s a true freak in that regard.

His film was mixed, though. Let’s start with his run support. Emmanwori’s reaction times were often slow. He also had surprising issues weaving through traffic. Smaller receivers regularly blocked him and took him out of the play.

If he did have the clear path to the runner, he was a highly effective tackler. Solid technique, excellent power. He was capable of moving fast when he had a clear objective.

His pass coverage skills were significantly better. Eye-popping range. I wonder how many throws quarterbacks didn’t attempt because of it. His man coverage skills were quite good. His recovery speed included a turbo button. His length bothered receivers, causing drops even if he couldn’t tip the ball.

In zone coverage, Emmanwori has the potential to develop into an apex predator. Eyes, speed, hands. His only real weakness in coverage is that some shifty wide receivers were able to create separation with quick moves.

The reality is Emmanwori was not as good a football player in college as Malaki Starks or Xavier Watts. But he is a much better athlete and has a higher ceiling. Emmanwori can cover players who would dust Starks and Watts. That makes him a first-round value. I would take Starks over him, though.

One possibility is that Emmanwori might try his hand as a press-nickelback. That could free up Witherspoon to move outside. Or Emmanwori might pair with Love and move Bryant into spot duty. I guess we’ll see how Seattle wants to use his talents.

Both kicker Jason Myers and punter Michael Dickson did a fine job last season.

My concern is about the coverage and blocking units. They did not provide great support in 2024. Perhaps that’s something Seattle has been able to address this offseason.

Tory Horton and Steven Sims are competing for the kick and punt return jobs. Sims has one career kick return touchdown and one career punt return touchdown. However, he’s dealing with an injured hamstring and doesn’t provide much value in the passing game. Horton looked good in college and has more upside. It might come down to whether Seattle has a spare roster slot for Sims.

(Update: They didn’t. He’s on the practice squad.)

If quarterback Sam Darnold has turned a corner in his career, the Seahawks should post their fourth-straight winning season. Two issues:

1. I still remember how badly he washed out in New York.

2. I watched him implode vs. Detroit and Los Angeles.

There’s more. Seattle has been the high bidder, either in free agency, or via the draft, on a lot of players with medical red flags. I am worried that they simply have more risk tolerance, and not more information.

My sense is Seattle has too many landmines to avoid. This strikes me as a flawed roster. 8-9.

Chicago Bears

2024 Record: 5-12

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 8.31

NYT/Athletic Wins: 7.4

DVOA Wins: 7.9

FPI Wins: 8.4

Market Estimates:

Market Wins: 8.02

Implied Pythag: 52.42

Quarterback Caleb Williams was the #1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He had a rough rookie campaign:

2024: 3,541 yards, 20 TD, 6 INT, 4.9 NY/P, -11.9% DVOA, 21 DYAR

4.9 NY/P is dreadful. If it happens again, the Bears will have to start watching 2026 NFL Draft quarterback film, and nobody wants that. The good news is the Bears have made massive upgrades to their coaching staff. Matt Eberflus is out. Ben Johnson is in.

Ben Johnson did wonderful work in Detroit. His play design was innovative and he put his players in good positions to succeed. I’m willing to give Williams a mulligan for 2024. Now he has a fair chance to succeed.

Wide receiver DJ Moore will welcome Johnson’s arrival as well:

2023: 96 receptions, 1,364 yards, +11.3 +/-, 17.5% DVOA, 322 DYAR

2024: 98 receptions, 966 yards, -1.3 +/-, -12.4% DVOA, 3 DYAR

Moore turned 28 in April. Hopefully he can return to form as Williams develops.

2024 first-round pick Rome Odunze wasn’t given a great chance to succeed:

2024: 54 receptions, 734 yards, -5.4 +/-, -12.7% DVOA, 0 DYAR

He, too, will need Williams to develop to show what he can do in Chicago. Unlocking Odunze would be big.

They’ll be joined by rookie second-round pick Luther Burden III:

Luther Burden III: 6’0, 206, 8.50-inch hands. Solid speed. Burden was a five-star prospect who lived up to his rating. Exceptional sophomore season (86 receptions, 1,212 yards, 9 touchdowns).

He regressed his junior year (61 receptions, 676 yards, 6 touchdowns, with two rushing touchdowns). He was playing through some nagging injuries that slowed him.

His hands might be on the smaller side, but it didn’t show up in his catch rate. In fact, this is one of his key selling points. Burden excelled at bringing the ball in quickly before turning upfield. His ability to adjust the ball and maintain speed will put a lot of pressure on defenses.

Burden worked well both inside and outside. His physicality surprised me. Smaller nickelbacks might find it hard to bring him down. He’s going to try and be a YAC-monster in the NFL.

My sense is that Burden’s best days are ahead of him. Missouri’s offense didn’t make the best use of his skills. Burden also might provide some value as a punt returner.

Overall, I view Burden as a solid first-round value.

Free-agent pickup Olamide Zaccheaus will provide depth:

2024: 45 receptions, 506 yards, -1.7 +/-, 3.5% DVOA, 77 DYAR

Olamide may play as the #3WR while Burden develops.

Tight end Cole Kmet saw his usage go down with Williams:

2023: 73 receptions, 719 yards, +8.5 +/-, 14.9% DVOA, 129 DYAR

2024: 47 receptions, 474 yards, +7.0 +/-, 21.9% DVOA, 109 DYAR

He should remain a solid option even with the addition of rookie first-round pick Colston Loveland:

Colston Loveland: 6’6, 248, 10.00-inch hands. 45 receptions for 649 yards and four touchdowns in Michigan’s 2023 championship season. 56 receptions for 582 yards and five touchdowns in 2024. Those are pretty good numbers in the context of Michigan’s offense. But… they should have been better.

Loveland has had issues with drops. He’s also a laughably poor inline blocker. Putting him up against NFL edge rushers would be suicidal. He’s an oversized receiver. The good news in that regard is he has the ability to line up inline, in the slot, or outside. Yes, Loveland really is capable of running a limited route tree as an outside receiver.

(Editor’s note: Nate Tice feels differently.)

Loveland is a former basketball player. He’s retained his ability to work through traffic and get to the spot. He’s a plus athlete for the position. But not a freak. The one thing I’d like to note in his favor is that he just turned 21. That’s very young for a prospect these days and speaks well of his potential future development. Top-20 value.

Loveland will allow for the Bears to run more 2TE sets when his shoulder has fully recovered from surgery.

From my 2024 NFL Preview:

Premium free-agent acquisition D’Andre Swift will take over the #1RB job:

2023: 278 squid, 1,263 yards, 1.5% DVOA, 126 DYAR (in 16 games)

“To be frank, I didn’t love this signing for Chicago. Swift did not appear to be a difference-maker for Philadelphia.”

Let’s see how it turned out:

2024: 305 squid, 1,445 yards, -10.6% DVOA, -1 DYAR

Hrm.

2023 fourth-round pick Roschon Johnson saw his role decrease:

2023: 121 squid, 561 yards, -0.2% DVOA, 48 DYAR (in 15 games)

2024: 75 squid, 254 yards, 3.1% DVOA, 49 DYAR (in 14 games)

We’ll have to wait and see how the new regime plans to use him.

2022 fifth-round pick left tackle Braxton Jones is trying to come back from a broken fibula. It’s nice that the Bears were able to get a starter at a premium position with a late-round pick, but man they got what paid for. Jones has never sniffed being anywhere near league-average.

Another option is rookie second-round pick Ozzy Trapilo:

Ozzy Trapilo: 6’8, 316, 33.5-inch arms. Decent combine.

I’m not sure what to make of Trapilo. Is he a pass-blocking specialist at right tackle? I guess there’s no reason he can’t be. I don’t see the kind of skills you’re looking for at left tackle. The power isn’t there, and his technique and length would make him a liability. The right side is more forgiving in that regard.

It’s clear Trapilo could use a bit more weight, preferably in his lower body, but unlike (Cameron) Williams, he’s the kind of guy who struggles to put weight on.

Trapilo seems like a niche prospect. You’ll need a scheme that plays to his strengths. He’ll also need some time to develop. I could see taking a flyer on him at the tail end of the third round.

Premium free-agent acquisition Joe Thuney is taking over at left guard. He finished second in my rankings last season. The man can play.

Premium free-agent pickup Drew Dalman will start at center. He should help stabilize the offensive line.

The Bears traded for Jonah Jackson and signed him to a new contract. The plan is for him to play right guard. He’s been dealing with a leg injury this preseason. He tore his meniscus in 2023 and hurt his shoulder last season, only appearing in four games. If he’s 100%, he’s a potentially great run blocker.

2023 first-round pick Darnell Wright will start at right tackle. I graded him a bit above-average. I guess that’s fine, all things considered.

2024 third-round pick Kiran Amegadjie sucked in limited usage last season. If he gets pressed into duty at left tackle, the Bears might be in real trouble.

I have to say that the Bears’ plan of investing big money into the interior of the offensive line while trying to find starting left tackles cheaply in the draft is… bold.

I don’t talk a ton about schematic choices here because I feel like my NFL previews are already plenty long. I have to make an exception here because the 2024 Bears’ defense was unsound.

In 2023 they had a miserable pass rush, finishing with 30 sacks and a very poor pressure rate. That was an improvement over 2022, when they finished with 20 sacks and DFL in pressure rate.

Last season, the Bears finished with 40 sacks and a roughly league-average pressure rate. Improvement? Sort of. They were reasonably effective when blitzing, not so much when sending four. But that’s not the main issue. The main issue is that they sold out against the pass, which led to them being unacceptably soft against the run.

To be fair, they did improve their pass coverage. There was also some incredible variance, where the Bears were excellent against opponents’ #1WR and “other” receivers, but sucked vs. #2 receivers and tight ends.

To be fair, variance probably isn’t the right term. The Bears made certain choices in terms of coverage resources that influenced these results. There’s a new coaching staff, so expect the Bears’ defense to produce more normal results this season.

The Bears made a couple of moves to improve their defensive line. The first was signing Dayo Odeyingbo (three sacks, 48 hits+hurries). At 6’5, 282, he’s more of a DE/DT hybrid. On the plus side, he does bring some versatility and toughness against the run.

The second move was drafting defensive tackle Shemar Turner in the second round:

Shemar Turner: 6’3, 290, 33.625-inch arms. Skipped the drills.

Turner played hard. Maybe a bit too hard. He leveraged average length and athleticism into excellent production. Turner was constantly working, fighting to get into the backfield. Or perhaps just fighting. He was a personal foul magnet, which is not something NFL coaches will tolerate. He’s just not talented enough to get away with it in the NFL.

If he can keep his emotions in control, Turner should be able to contribute from week one. Production against elite competition is predictive of production in the NFL. Third round value.

If the Bears’ coaching staff can keep Turner under control, he can make a difference on the line.

I’m not sure either of these additions move the needle in terms of the pass rush. Perhaps the new coaching staff was more interested in restoring the Bears’ ability to stop the run. In that case, I’d agree that upgrades were made.

Dayo will line up across from defensive end Montez Sweat (5.5 sacks, 39 hits+hurries). 2022 fifth-round pick Dominique Robinson and 2024 fifth-round pick Austin Booker (1.5 sacks, 11 hits+hurries) will round out the rotation. Robinson has two career sacks. The Bears have not invested heavily in their edge rushers.

They’ll be counting on getting some pressure from defensive tackles Grady Jarrett (2.5 sacks, 35 hits+hurries) and 2023 second-round pick Gervon Dexter (five sacks, 40 hits+hurries).

Jarrett was a premium free-agent signing. I was surprised by how lucrative his contract was. It’s been years since he’s been a dominant interior defender. I was not alone in my confusion. Or, if you prefer video. Either way, GM Ryan Poles will look very bad if Jarrett doesn’t return to elite form.

Andrew Billings will provide interior depth along with rookie Shemar Turner.

Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds remains an elite weapon in coverage. T.J. Edwards excelled attacking the line of scrimmage. They are a solid pairing.

When the Bears line up in a 4-3, they might be joined by rookie fourth-round pick Ruben Hyppolite. I had five players from Maryland in my top 300 prospects. Hyppolite was not one of them. His film did not impress me. But the man can run fast. The Bears wanted more speed on the interior and they’ve added it.

The Bears are happy with their starting cornerbacks. Jaylon Johnson did an excellent job last season. He earned All-Pro in 2023 and was likely in the discussion last year.

(Editor’s note: Johnson will miss a few weeks this preseason with a leg injury. Hopefully he’s 100% week one.)

2023 second-round pick Tyrique Stevenson wasn’t bad. If he continues to develop, this looks to be a strong pairing.

2022 second-round pick Kyler Gordon will man the slot. Gordon provides some additional versatility as he can function as a box safety as needed.

2023 fifth-round pick Terrell Smith did some nice work in dime packages.

Rookie fifth-round pick Zah Frazier will provide depth. He also was not on my top 300 list. Sub-4.4 speed, though. GM Ryan Poles and I aren’t really on the same wavelength. He clearly values pure speed, whereas I want to see it translate into on-field production first.

(Update: Smith is out for the season with a knee injury. Frazier is out for the season with a non-football injury.)

The cornerback depth is now rather thin. The Bears will need their top three guys to stay healthy.

Safety Jaquan Brisker has struggled with concussions throughout his NFL career. For such a violent position as safety, that’s a problem. He can be a valuable asset when healthy. My concern is availability.

Kevin Byard was a premium free-agent pickup last season. My sense is he did not live up to the Bears’ expectations.

2022 seventh-round pick Elijah Hicks and Jonathan Owens will provide depth here.

The Bears would very much appreciate it if Brisker can stay healthy and Byard returns to form.

Opponents have noticed and started targeting kicker Cairo Santos and his low kicking trajectory. You can see for yourself. Or with video if that’s your preference. I’m not sure this is something he can easily fix. Despite that, he’s an above-average kicker. Kick blocks are low-frequency events, so perhaps last season he just caught some bad variance. On the other hand, opponents are selling out to get high in the center of the line, which is a bit disconcerting.

2024 fourth-round pick former Australian rules punter Tory Taylor had an excellent rookie season.

The Bears signed Devin Duvernay to be their return specialist. We’ll see how he adjusts to the new kickoff rules.

Overall, the Bears’ special teams should be a strength.

The Bears’ season comes down to two men. New head coach Ben Johnson and quarterback Caleb Williams. If Johnson can fix the issues that plagued Williams last season, the Bears are set to compete in a very tough NFC North. If Williams doesn’t take a second-year leap, he may find it hard to get on the field next season. My sense is this can go either way. Perhaps Johnson can unlock that talent that Williams flashed to go #1 overall. I do expect to see at least some improvement from Williams now that he has competent people around him.

The rest of the roster is… meh. The wide receiver corps looks solid, and the interior of the offensive line has been bolstered. The tackles are still a potential problem.

Defensively, there’s some questions about the pass-rush. Hopefully Montez Sweat returns to form with better health. A Grady Jarrett resurgence would also be nice.

Ultimately, this is a developmental season for the Bears. Williams should be better, and so should the Bears’ record. 8-9.

Detroit Lions

2024 Record: 15-2

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 10.81

NYT/Athletic Wins: 10.2

DVOA Wins: 10.7

FPI Wins: 9.65

Market Estimates:

Market Wins: 10.23

Implied Pythag: 67.25%

It is very difficult for me not to feel bad for the Detroit Lions. In 2023 they were a few drops away from beating the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. Last year they were the NFC’s #1 seed. Alas, their defense was wrecked by injuries. Between that, and bad turnover luck in the divisional round, they ended up getting smoked by Washington, 45-31.

It’s not as if the defense collapsed in the regular season. The Lions finished 5^th in defensive DVOA, 3^rd in offensive DVOA, and 1^st in special teams DVOA. This was a very tough team that did not get the breaks.

I’d say things almost had to get better on that front this season but the Lions have already lost Levi Onwuzurike for the season with an ACL tear. We’ll have to wait and see how bad 2024 second-round pick safety Ennis Rakestraw’s shoulder injury is. It’s possible I’m overly sensitive to Detroit’s injury reports. It’s hard for me not to expect the worst.

Last year’s injury woes haven’t been fully resolved. Defensive tackle Alim McNeill will start the season on the PUP list while he recovers from an ACL tear.

Okay. That’s enough doom and gloom. The Lions are still the second-favorite to win the NFC, after the defending champion Eagles. The offense is still loaded. Let’s dig in.

Quarterback Jared Goff has entrenched himself among the NFL upper crust:

2022: 4,438 yards, 29 TD, 7 INT, 7.0 NY/P, 24.8% DVOA, 1423 DYAR

2023: 4,575 yards, 30 TD, 12 INT, 6.9 NY/P, 22.3% DVOA, 1,378 DYAR

2024: 4,629 yards, 37 TD, 12 INT, 7.8 NY/P, 29.8% DVOA, 1,560 DYAR

Yes, he’s been placed in a good position to succeed. The fact is, he’s taken advantage of his opportunities. He’ll turn 31 in October and should still be at or near his peak.

#1WR Amon-Ra St. Brown sustained an elite level of play:

2022: 106 receptions, 1,161 yards, +5.0 +/-, 11.0% DVOA, 274 DYAR (in 16 games)

2023: 119 receptions, 1,515 yards, +5.9 +/-, 19.9% DVOA, 422 DYAR (in 16 games)

2024: 115 receptions, 1,263 yards, +15.3 +/-, 24.6% DVOA, 419 DYAR

Amon-Ra tormented defenses, either from the slot or working outside. The Lions were comfortable taking whatever the defense gave.

2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams had a slow start to his career. Last season he finally broke out:

2022-2023: 25 receptions, 395 yards, -5.8 +/-, -19.5% DVOA, -28 DYAR (in 18 games)

2024: 58 receptions, 1,001 yards, -1.0 +/-, 12.5% DVOA, 191 DYAR (in 15 games)

That was enough to convince the Lions to pick up his fifth-year option. Williams can stretch defenses deep or via crossing routes. He may end up developing into an elite threat.

Punt return specialist and rookie third-round pick Isaac Teslaa will get a chance to be the #3WR.

Let’s talk about Teslaa for a second. I gave him a seventh-round grade. Other analysts had him going closer to the middle of day three. He jumped in the draft process by wowing in Senior Bowl practices and showing out at the combine. The dude is big and fast. He also caught 62 passes for 896 yards over his final 25 games at Arkansas.

He did not jump out on film. In Detroit, he might end up being a matchup nightmare given his size and speed. He can work out of the slot and bully nickelbacks or dust linebackers. There’s upside here. But the NFL is a lot harder than the SEC, and Teslaa didn’t look like a day-two prospect there.

Kalif Raymond will provide depth.

2023 second-round pick tight end Sam LaPorta has continued to develop:

2023: 86 receptions, 889 yards, +1.9 +/-, 9.2% DVOA, 131 DYAR

2024: 60 receptions, 726 yards, +6.8 +/-, 16.5% DVOA, 138 DYAR (in 16 games)

LaPorta dropped from five targets a game in 2023 to four last season. It’s nothing personal, there are only so many balls to go around.

#2TE Brock Wright is a solid blocker in 2TE sets.

2023 first-round pick running back Jahmyr Gibbs had a monster season:

2023: 253 squid, 1,261 yards, 10.4% DVOA, 221 DYAR (in 15 games)

2024: 315 squid, 1,929 yards, 33.4% DVOA, 609 DYAR

Between the dangerous passing attack and the dominant offensive line, Gibbs shredded defenses. I don’t love using first-round picks on running backs. I view them as products of their situation. I cannot deny that Gibbs is everything the Lions were hoping he would be.

David Montgomery produced as well:

2023: 243 squid, 1,132 yards, 12.8% DVOA, 243 DYAR (in 14 games)

2024: 223 squid, 1,116 yards, 20.4% DVOA, 339 DYAR (in 14 games)

He missed the final three regular season games with an MCL injury. He returned in the playoffs and looked fine in the loss to Washington.

Between center Frank Ragnow’s retirement and right guard Kevin Zeitler signing with Tennessee, we’re going to see some new faces on the interior of the line in Detroit. The departing players finished third and fifth in my positional rankings, respectively. Replacing them will not be easy.

In the short run, Graham Glasgow will move from left guard to center. That opens up a spot at left guard, which will likely be filled by 2024 sixth-round pick Christian Mahogany.

In the long run, rookie second-round pick Tate Ratledge is expected to take over. He’ll start his career at right guard:

Tate Ratledge: 6’6 ½, 308, 32.25-inch arms. Excellent athlete. Ratledge is the kind of player who will excel in some schemes and suffer in others.

He’s a pure right guard with little positional versatility. He’ll need to go to a very specific type of landing spot.

The good news is, he’s excellent at what he does. Comfortable dropping anchor or powering into his man. He produced at Georgia against quality competition.

It’s tricky to evaluate the draft slot of such a niche prospect. He’s a second-round value to the right team, but with a limited pool of suitors, I might look to wait until the middle of the third before pulling the trigger.

So much for “little positional versatility.”

At some point we may see musical chairs, with Glasgow moving back to left guard, Ratledge to center, and Mahogany to right guard.

For what it’s worth, I have Glasgow being just slightly above-average.

Things are more stable at tackle. Right tackle Penei Sewell is a monster. He finished first in my rankings. Left tackle Taylor Decker finished tenth in my rankings. Not bad.

Before the Hall of Fame Game I would have said Dan Skipper will provide depth at tackle. He left the game in a walking boot so now I am not sure. I’m also not sure who we’ll see if the interior of the line suffers some attrition. I have to say, the Lions’ offensive line has gone from a strength to a question mark.

2024 fourth-round pick Giovanni Manu looks to be the next man up at tackle.

Defensive end Aidan Hutchinson had 7.5 sacks and 33 hits+hurries for the Lions last season. In five games. The dude was going HAM on the league before he got hurt. He’ll line up across from Marcus Davenport. For a little while at least. Davenport has only appeared in six games over the past two seasons. It’s hard to know what to expect from him.

Josh Paschal (two sacks, 39 hits+hurries) and Al-Quadin Muhammad (three sacks, 18 hits+hurries) are the next men up. Or would be anyway, if Paschal weren’t sidelined with a non-football injury. We have no idea of what the injury is. The Lions have suggested he’ll start practicing in September.

The Lions grabbed former Cowboy Tyrus Wheat off of waivers. Wheat has mostly been a special teams ace. He’ll round out the pass-rush rotation for now.

The interior of the line has had a rough go of it. Levi Onwuzurike is out for the season. Alim McNeill will miss the first few months of the season. Mekhi Wingo is currently on the PUP list.

Right now, I am expecting D.J. Reader (three sacks, 13 hits+hurries) to start alongside rookie first-round pick Tyleik Williams:

Tyleik Williams: 6’3, 334, 32-inch arms. One of the weirdest RAS results you’ll ever see. Went down like he blew out his knee, but apparently it was just cramps. Supposedly he’s 100% good to go.

He’s a legitimate athletic freak and planet theory candidate. On film, he showed he was capable of dominating. He put opposing centers on roller skates. He could rip through double teams or stand his ground like a wall.

Williams’s film wasn’t all roses. He had conditioning issues that I don’t think are easily fixable. It’s one thing to wear down in the fourth quarter. It’s another thing to clearly be a different player on the 12th play of a drive. Williams needs to be put on a play count until he proves he can handle more usage.

I’m a fan of Williams (you’re shocked, I know). I wouldn’t touch him if (Kenneth) Grant was still available. After that though, late first-round value.

Free-agent pickup Roy Lopez and 2024 sixth-round pick Mekhi Wingo will provide interior depth.

2023 first-round pick linebacker Jack Campbell has developed into the complete player the Lions were hoping for. He’s an effective tackler with good range and solid coverage skills.

Campbell will start alongside Alex Anzalone. Anzalone’s play slipped last season. I’d imagine he can still be a solid contributor if he’s 100%. He’s not in a great mood since he’s looking for a new contract. I’m guessing the Lions will let him show off what he can do and then let him walk.

The depth here is pretty thin.

2024 first-round cornerback pick Terrion Arnold was a bit of a flag magnet early in the season. Once he figured out how to stick to his man without enraging the wrath of the refs, he had pretty good results.

Arnold will start across from premium free-agent pickup D.J. Reed. I saw quite of bit of Reed when he was with the Jets. He was pretty good, but clearly the #2CB behind Sauce Gardner.

I’m expecting Amik Robertson to retain the nickelback job. Ennis Rakestraw is hurt and Avante Maddux was a budget depth acquisition. Robertson wasn’t great last season, but perhaps some additional time in Detroit will help.

The Lions’ secondary actually did a pretty great job last season. The cornerbacks were fine, especially given the pass-rush woes. 2022 third-round pick safety Kerby Joseph was the real star, with nine interceptions and generally reliable play.

Kerby will again be paired with 2023 second-round pick Brian Branch. Branch has developed into a solid box safety. This should be a very effective pairing, especially if the pass-rush recovers.

There isn’t much depth here, so good health (gulp) will be key.

After a lousy performance in 2023, the Lions’ special teams bounced back with solid performances across the board.

Kicker Jake Bates had a fine rookie season.

Punter Jack Fox and his coverage team combined to do excellent work.

Kalif Raymond had a monster year returning punts. The only real question is kick returns. Khalil Dorsey is on the PUP list. Tom Kennedy might not make the team. We’ll have to wait and see who gets the job.

(Update: Raymond looks like he’ll handle both return jobs.)

The Lions are looking to finally jump all of the hurdles and play in a Super Bowl. They’ve been good enough each of the past two seasons. It just hasn’t worked out for them. The offense will have to adjust to some offensive line personnel changes. The defense can make up for it if Aidan Hutchinson stays healthy and leads a revived pass-rush. But have you seen their schedule? I don’t see another #1 seed for them. 11-6.

Green Bay Packers

2024 Record: 11-6

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 9.34

NYT/Athletic Wins: 9.8

DVOA Wins: 8.9

FPI Wins: 8.95

Market Estimates:

Market Wins: 9.96

Implied Pythag: 63.77%

(Editor’s note: Scouting Wins and the Market Estimates are taking the Micah Parsons trade into account. The Athletic, DVOA, and FPI are not.)

The Packers finished 3^rd in DVOA last season. They are the youngest team in the NFL*. They have a franchise quarterback locked up for the next few years. That’s the kind of thing that normally suggests a championship window. But even with Micah Parsons now in the fold, they are viewed as nothing more than a potential dark horse. What gives?

*There are a few different ways to judge a roster, but most of them would have the Packers as the youngest, particularly at the skill positions.

The biggest issue is roster depth. That can be seen particularly at wide receiver. More on this shortly.

Jordan Love has developed into a trustworthy, productive quarterback:

2023: 4,159 yards, 32 TD, 11 INT, 6.4 NY/P, 19.0% DVOA, 1,231 DYAR

2024: 3,389 yards, 25 TD, 11 INT, 7.5 NY/P, 22.7% DVOA, 981 DYAR (in 15 games)

He’s been doing that with a young (and cheap) wide receiver corps. Last season, the Packers’ leading receiver (in terms of yardage) was 2023 second-round pick slot receiver Jayden Reed:

2023: 64 receptions, 793 yards, +3.7 +/-, 9.7% DVOA, 167 DYAR (in 16 games)

2024: 55 receptions, 857 yards, +3.2 +/-, 34.0% DVOA, 281 DYAR

Reed also had 20 carries for 163 yards (19.0% DVOA, 60 DYAR). The dude did work for the Packers. Alas, he’s also had issues with drops. Reed is a guy who can do some damage with the ball in his hands. To me, the risk/reward is more than worth it for a player this dynamic.

2022 fourth-round pick Romeo Doubs battled concussions, missing two games and being unable to finish the playoff game vs. the Eagles. He also was suspended by the team early in the season:

2023: 59 receptions, 674 yards, -2.4 +/-, 2.9% DVOA, 125 DYAR

2024: 46 receptions, 601 yards, +0.1 +/-, 20.1% DVOA, 195 DYAR

Doubs was productive when healthy. I’ve learned to be leery of concussions, though. Also, he too has questionable hands.

From my 2024 NFL Preview regarding 2023 fifth-round pick Dontayvion Wicks:

“The Packers got the guy who averaged 21+ yards per reception for Virginia in 2021. They didn’t get the guy who had nine drops in 2022. Maybe Wicks just had a rough year in 2022. The Packers might have found a potential #1 receiver in Wicks.”

2023: 39 receptions, 581 yards, +1.8 +/-, 27.7% DVOA, 195 DYAR (in 15 games)

2024: 39 receptions, 415 yards, -7.3 +/-, -18.7% DVOA, -37 DYAR

Welp! 2022 Wicks showed up in Green Bay last season. The coaching staff grew frustrated with each of these young receivers at points last season. And then there’s 2022 second-round pick Christian Watson:

2022: 41 receptions, 611 yards, +2.4 +/-, 11.4% DVOA, 133 DYAR (in 14 games)

2023: 28 receptions, 422 yards, -4.1 +/-, 3.8% DVOA, 69 DYAR (in 9 games)

2024: 29 receptions, 620 yards, +0.2 +/-, 10.7% DVOA, 100 DYAR (in 15 games)

Watson tore his ACL and might start the season on the PUP list. He’s battled injuries throughout his career so it’s tough to know what to expect from him when he returns. His best highlights look amazing, but 98 receptions in three seasons ain’t it.

The Packers decided to bolster their wide receiver corps in the draft, because what does a young wide receiver corps need? More youth!

They started with Matthew Golden in the first round:

Matthew Golden: 5’11, 191, 9.50-inch hands. Sub 4.3-speed. Golden’s statistics were good, not great (58 receptions, 987 yards, 9 touchdowns). I’ll cut him some slack given how low I am on Quinn Ewers.

I’m going to level with you. I didn’t love Golden’s film*. There were too many drops where he tried to cut upfield before completing the catch. I’ll fully acknowledge that this is a tradeoff. You produce more big plays that way, but his drop rate was too high. I expect this will be corrected in the NFL.

You know how (Tetairoa) McMillan was awesome at getting back to his quarterback when plays broke down? Golden did… not that.

There were also too many plays where it looked like he quit on the play. Mind you, he did occasionally deke the cornerback this way, and that was cool to see. Beep beep.

It wasn’t all bad of course. Golden was good at adjusting his tempo to keep cornerbacks off guard. He displayed elite body control. And the speed. You can’t coach that.

*I was speaking of his film at wide receiver. His kick returner film is straight gas. Normally I am against risking #1WRs on special teams, but I’ll make an exception here. Golden has the glow.

So, where do I stand on Golden? His special teams value (especially with the new, awful, kickoff rules) pushes him to #2WR in this class. His upside is elite. I’d be fine taking him in the top 15.

(Editor’s note: In retrospect I was too hard on Golden. He consistently bailed Ewers out. Give him a real quarterback and we’ll see what Golden is truly capable of. Also, I undersold his lack of physicality. NFL cornerbacks are going to try and bully Golden until he proves he can make them pay for it.)

They followed up with Sayvion Williams in the third round:

Savion Williams: 6’4, 222, 10.25-inch hands. 4.48-speed. 101 receptions for 1,184 yards and 10 touchdowns over his final two seasons at TCU.

That’s not a ton of production, especially given how hard TCU worked to get him the ball. Williams has elite athletic gifts, but catching footballs does not come naturally to him. As others have noted, Williams has the physical profile of a first-round wide receiver. The issue is that he’s a project.

Williams might as well room with a JUGS machine. He’ll also need to learn how to run a complete route tree, or at least a complete route bush.

He returned kicks as a freshman but that didn’t last long or happen again. He has some throwing talent on gadget plays. He’s also a threat to run.

Williams is a tricky prospect to evaluate. I need to be clear: he’s a freak athlete. The power and raw athleticism are such that he can dominate elite competition. His best days are special. But he’s also a shockingly poor blocker. That’s not a huge deal save for the fact it’s another sign that he struggles to turn his traits into results.

What sways me in Williams’s favor is that he’s still learning the position. He was a champion high school quarterback. His upside is such that he can easily pay back a third-round selection.

In Golden, the Packers are looking at an upgrade over Jaylen Reed. Similar issues in terms of explosive playmakers with potential problems with drops. I think Golden will really enjoy going from Ewers to Love.

As for Williams, he’s a large athletic receiver who will need to improve at catching the ball. Love has learned to live with a receiver corps with questionable hands. What’s one more?

The Packers’ young receiver corps extends to their tight ends. 2023 third-round pick Tucker Kraft did solid work last season:

2023: 31 receptions, 355 yards, +0.7 +/-, 26.0% DVOA, 92 DYAR

2024: 50 receptions, 707 yards, -0.5 +/-, 32.0% DVOA, 179 DYAR

If he could cut down on the drops and fumbles, he’d become more than a tertiary target.

2023 second-round pick Luke Musgrave only had seven receptions last season. Injuries have wrecked his career and at this point Love is comfortable with Kraft. He’ll need to try and work his way back onto the field.

#1RB Josh Jacobs will get the bulk of the action:

2024: 344 squid, 1,671 yards, 9.1% DVOA, 301 DYAR

I was surprised the Packers paid as much for him as they did. It appears they had a plan for him and he executed it.

2024 third-round pick Marshawn Lloyd and Emanuel Wilson are competing for the backup role. Wilson did a decent job in the running game last season. Lloyd has had difficulty staying healthy. My guess is Lloyd has more upside.

(Update: Lloyd will start the season on IR due to a hamstring injury.)

2022 seventh-round pick left tackle Rasheed Walker was a bit below-average last season. He excelled at run blocking but struggled in pass protection.

The Packers got great value from Walker, all things considered. That wasn’t their plan, though. 2024 first-round pick Jordan Morgan battled injuries. He was ineffective. Perhaps better health will allow him to compete for the starting job this year.

Premium free-agent pickup Aaron Banks will start at left guard. I was not remotely impressed with Banks last season. Perhaps I undervalue the power he brings to the running game.

I was very impressed with Elgton Jenkins, who is moving from left guard to center. He finished third in my rankings last season.

2022 third-round pick right guard Sean Rhyan finished outside of the top 30 of my rankings last season. Not great, Sean.

2022 fourth-round pick right tackle Zach Tom finished 10^th in my rankings last season. That was a drop-off from 2023, when only Penei Sewell was clearly better.

Rookie second-round pick Anthony Belton will also be in the mix:

Anthony Belton: 6’6, 336, 34-inch arms. Pretty good combine given his size.

Belton has NFL-level size, length, and power. The question is whether he has the agility to work outside, or if his skills would be better utilized at guard. I see three possible outcomes. Viable left tackle, solid right tackle, elite guard.

Surprisingly, he’s much more proficient in pass protection than he is at run blocking. Part of it is he works better when his man comes to him rather than the other way around.

I see Belton as a bit of developmental prospect with enormous upside. If I had a coaching staff with a plan for him, I’d look to grab him in the second round. Yes, planet theory strikes again.

The Packers have a lot of young options on the line, which gives them some flexibility and some depth.

There aren’t really any teams that build their defensive line the way the Packers do. The Packers’ defensive line wouldn’t necessarily look out of place in the 1970’s or early 1980’s. Defensive ends Rashan Gary (7.5 sacks, 47 hits+hurries) and 2023 first-round pick Lukas Van Ness (three sacks, 27 hits+hurries) are both 6’5, 270+.

The Packers were very good against the run. They had a decent pressure rate, but their sack rate was below-average. Most teams struggle to wrangle mobile quarterbacks. The Packers simply don’t have a traditional edge-rusher on the roster.

(Update: They do now.)

The Packers traded for Micah Parsons. Parsons had 12 sacks and 82 hits+hurries in 13 games for Dallas last season. Adding Parsons will create cascade effects for the rest of the defensive line. He soaks up blocking attention. The additional pressure will also help the secondary. This is a massive upgrade to the Packers defense.

Kingsley Enagbare (4.5 sacks, 29 hits+hurries) and rookie fourth-round pick Barryn Sorrell round out the rotation. Enagbare is 6’4, 258. Sorrell is 6’3 256, and fast for his size. Midwestern beef.

(Editor’s note: I forgot to mention Brenton Cox. Cox had four sacks in seven games last season. He’ll be in the mix as well.)

The Packers had to give up defensive tackle Kenny Clark to acquire Parsons.

With Clark gone, 2022 first-round pick Devonte Wyatt (Five sacks, 28 hits+hurries) and 2023 sixth-round pick Karl Brooks will start at defensive tackle.

Nazir Stackhouse, 2023 fourth-round pick Colby Wooden, and rookie sixth-round pick Warren Brinson will provide depth.

2024 second-round pick linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (3.5 sacks, 16 hits+hurries) might be the Packers’ second-best best blitzer. The dude excelled at getting into the backfield. He also did a fine job in coverage.

Cooper will line up with 2022 first-round pick Quay Walker and Isaiah McDuffie. Walker has developed into an athletic and competent linebacker. McDuffie was a weak link. Opponents will continue to target him unless he develops.

2024 third-round pick Tyron Hopper will provide depth. I’d like to see Hopper replace McDuffie in the 4-3 if he can learn to handle all of his various responsibilities.

Keisean Nixon and free-agent pickup Nate Hobbs are expected to start at cornerback. Hobbs is a competent nickelback who is recovering from knee surgery. He’s expected to return right before week one. He hasn’t shown he can handle outside responsibilities.

Nixon did solid work for the Packers last season.

If the Packers insist on playing Hobbs outside, Javon Bullard will cover the slot. Bullard has shown he can do a decent job as a box safety. He is not a good fit at nickelback.

The other options are 2023 seventh-round pick Carrington Valentine and 2024 sixth-round pick Kamal Hadden. Hadden didn’t play much last season and is dealing with a sore hip. The Packers look like they are a cornerback short.

Things are much better at safety. Xavier McKinney had eight interceptions last season. His ability to track deep balls is a nice weapon for the Packers’ defense.

2024 fourth-round pick Evan Williams has shown flashes that he might develop into a capable centerfielder as well.

2024 fifth-round pick Kitan Oladapo will provide depth.

Given the lack of cornerback depth, I expect the Packers to lean on their safeties in dime formations. I have to say that if the Packers’ secondary suffers some injuries, things could go south fast.

Kicker Brandon McManus is solid. Punter Daniel Whelan was better than his statistics would suggest.

I don’t love the Packers’ roster depth in terms of punt coverage and punt blocking. They could use a special teams ace or two, but I suppose they have bigger issues to deal with than that.

Keisean Nixon is an excellent kick returner. We’ll see if he retains that job, as the Packers have invested in a few other options. Jayden Reed is expected to return punts. He’s a dynamic player with the ball in his hands.

The Packers’ roster is honestly kind of weird. They clearly have unique views on how to build a wide receiver corps (hands are overrated), pass rush (explosiveness is overrated), and pass coverage (cornerbacks are overrated).

They also have a potentially powerful offense and solid run defense. The addition of Micah Parsons is enormous. The Packers look like a very good team in a very tough division. I expect another strong season. 11-6.

Minnesota Vikings

2024 Record: 14-3

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 8.82

NYT/Athletic Wins: 8.3

DVOA Wins: 7.9

FPI Wins: 8.6

Market Estimates:

Market Wins: 8.82

Implied Pythag: 57.33%

If you are reading this, there is a pretty good chance you are on Twitter. If you are on Twitter, there’s a pretty good chance you’ve seen Thor Nystrom (@thorku) tweet about J.J. McCarthy. Thor believes in McCarthy like Morpheus believed in Neo. I like Thor, so I want to believe. But do I?

Let’s step back a second. Last season, the Vikings were 14-2 and had a game in Detroit to determine the NFC’s #1 seed. Quarterback Sam Darnold was awful and the Vikings got smoked. They then went to Los Angeles for the Wild Card game and were blown out. Again, Darnold sucked.

But…

Darnold was pretty good for most of the rest of the season

2024: 4,319 yards, 35 TD, 12 INT, 6.7 NY/P, 12.3% DVOA, 911 DYAR

Of course, the question is how much of that was Darnold, and how much of that was the coaching staff and the team around him. We’re going to find out. Darnold is now in Seattle. 2024 first-round pick McCarthy is the next man up. Here’s what I wrote about him in my 2024 NFL Draft Preview:

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan: Last season McCarthy completed 240 passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns, and four interceptions. That was over 15 games. Depending on how one views Penn State, Michigan effectively played a four-game schedule, with 11 opponents that they should beat (and they did). McCarthy in the four big games:

@Penn State: 7/8, 60 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. Michigan won 24-15.

Ohio State: 16/20, 148 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. Michigan won 30-24.

Alabama: 17/27, 221 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT. Michigan won 27-20.

Washington: 10/18, 140 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. Michigan won 34-13.

In aggregate, he completed 68.5% of his passes for 142 yards a game. Michigan relied quite a bit on their ground game and their defense.

So why is McCarthy expected to be the fourth quarterback off the board? I have to tell you, the more I look, the less I know.

McCarthy was an efficient passer, but a lot of his damage came via play action. He’s very well respected for his intangibles, receiving credit for helping lead Michigan on and off the field. At 6’2″, 219, his build is fine, if a bit smaller than the prototype.

His arm strength got the job done in college, mostly working short-to-intermediate. I have to tell you, watching him throw, I don’t feel like I’m seeing a first-round NFL prospect. His efficiency numbers look like they are piggybacking off of the running game. If Jayden Daniels had an edge because of an absurd WR corps, McCarthy had an edge because defenses had to respect the Wolverines’ running game.

To be fair, McCarthy played smart. He understood how to beat zones. He wasn’t afraid of taking a hit if that meant he could buy some time for his receiver to get open. McCarthy did a fine job overall. But he wasn’t as accurate as his stats suggest. His arm strength isn’t impressive by NFL standards. And he’s not a dominant athlete.

If I had to guess, the NFL loves McCarthy’s intangibles. He brought Michigan a championship. My sense is that the NFL believes that McCarthy is physically “good enough” and mentally a premium prospect. Maybe they’re right.

I’m a McCarthy skeptic. After doing a full review, he’s QB6 for me. I would not take him in round one. I sure as hell wouldn’t trade up for him. Perhaps I am missing something. I guess I’ll just have to wait and see.

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has done a lot to earn my respect and trust. If he believes that McCarthy can lead the Vikings back to the playoffs, I’ll place some faith in him.

The good news is he’ll have some excellent help from the wide receiver corps. Justin Jefferson is special:

2021: 108 receptions, 1,616 yards, +9.7 +/-, 18.9% DVOA, 416 DYAR

2022: 128 receptions, 1,809 yards, +14.9 +/-, 20.7% DVOA, 489 DYAR

2023: 68 receptions, 1,074 yards, +7.8 +/-, 19.3% DVOA, 258 DYAR (in 10 games)

2024: 103 receptions, 1,533 yards, +4.4 +/-, 20.9% DVOA, 425 DYAR

Jefferson has adjusted and performed with a variety of different quarterbacks. I expect he’ll be able to bond quickly with McCarthy.

2023 first-round pick Jordan Addison has done a solid job as well:

2023: 70 receptions, 911 yards, +5.4 +/-, 10.0% DVOA, 193 DYAR

2024: 63 receptions, 875 yards, +6.0 +/-, 13.3% DVOA, 206 DYAR (in 15 games)

Addison will not be available the first three weeks of the season, as he has been suspended for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy.

2022 sixth-round pick Jalen Nailor did a solid job last season:

2024: 28 receptions, 414 yards, +0.9 +/-, 40.0% DVOA, 168 DYAR

I need to make it clear that this was a case of the Vikings taking what the defense was giving them. Defenses would key on Jefferson, which created opportunities for Addison and Nailor. Nailor would generally only be targeted when left open.

Rookie third-round pick Tai Felton will have a chance to make an impact while Addison is out. The dude is fast and is coming off a solid season at Maryland (96 receptions for 1,124 yards and nine touchdowns).

With the loss of Rondale Moore (out for the season with a knee injury), the depth here is a bit thin.

(Update: Not anymore. The Vikings traded for slot receiver Adam Thielen)

2023: 103 receptions, 1,014 yards, +7.1 +/-, -3.2% DVOA, 101 DYAR

2024: 48 receptions, 615 yards, 9.0 +/-, 27.6% DVOA, 195 DYAR (in 10 games)

That was a pretty absurd performance by Thielen all things considered. He just turned 35 in August, so we shouldn’t expect a repeat.

#1TE T.J. Hockenson is coming into this season fully healthy. Last year, he was recovering from ACL/MCL tears and missed the first part of the season:

2023: 95 receptions, 960 yards, +7.7 +/-, 5.6% DVOA, 102 DYAR (in 15 games)

2024: 41 receptions, 455 yards, +0.7 +/-, 6.6% DVOA, 58 DYAR (in 10 games)

Hockenson is a reliable third or fourth option as needed.

Backup Josh Oliver provided decent depth last season. He returns as the #2TE.

#1RB Aaron Jones did not have a great first season in Minnesota:

2024: 317 squid, 1,546 yards, -3.0% DVOA, 102 DYAR

While those numbers weren’t terrible, defenses were more concerned with Minnesota’s passing game. Then again, the backup running backs didn’t set the world on fire either:

2024: 137 squid, 573 yards, -12.1% DVOA, -6 DYAR

At this point the suspected culprit would be the offensive line, but for the most part they did a reasonable job. Their issues were more in pass protection. I’ll discuss that shortly.

The Vikings traded for Jordan Mason to be their new #2RB:

2024: 168 squid, 880 yards, 1.8% DVOA, 85 DYAR (in 12 games)

Mason should hopefully provide better depth than the Vikings had last season.

Left tackle Christian Darrisaw missed most of last season with a torn ACL/MCL in his left knee. He’s on track to be ready to start week 1. He was excellent in 2022 but has been mediocre or injured since then. The Vikings would benefit from a return to health and form.

Rookie first-round pick Donovan Jackson is taking over at left guard:

Donovan Jackson: 6’4, 315, 33.5-inch arms. Good athlete.

Jackson’s film was marvelous. Dominant inside. Highly effective at left tackle against elite competition. He could block defensive linemen into the second level or shut them down in pass protection. He could handle power or speed.

Was his film perfect? No. But I didn’t see any flaws or mistakes that I’d view as predictive. I loved almost everything I saw from him.

I’m giving Jackson a first-round grade. If not for positional value, I’d be looking to snag him in the teens.

(Editor’s note: Jackson also has potential upside at tackle, although I do think his better position in the NFL is guard.)

I’ll be pulling for Jackson.

Free-agent pickup center Ryan Kelly finished first in my rankings in 2023 and fifth last year. He battled some injuries and missed seven games last season. If he’s still at or near his peak, he’ll be a huge improvement for the Vikings.

Right guard Will Fries was playing some great ball for the Colts before a fractured tibia ended his season after just five games. That didn’t stop him from signing a lucrative new deal. He, too, should be a huge upgrade if healthy.

Right tackle Brian O’Neill finished fifth in my rankings. He was the one reliable mainstay on the line last year.

The Vikings signed Justin Skule to add some depth. Hopefully they don’t have to find out if he was worth the money. The line will be much improved if it can stay healthy.

Much is made of Brian Flores and his defensive mastery. He’s earned the accolades, but as Bill Walsh noted, defense requires you to have the athletes. Scheming can only take you so far.

The Vikings have rebuilt their defensive line, signing premium free-agents defensive end Jonathan Allen and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave. Hargrave missed most of last season with a triceps tear. He played well for the 49ers in 2023 (seven sacks, 40 hits+hurries).

Allen missed roughly half of last season with a torn pectoral muscle. Back in 2021 and 2022 he was an impact player, recording 16.5 sacks over that time. Since then, he’s slowed a bit.

They’ll be joined by Jalen Redmond and rookie fifth-round pick Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins. There is not a lot of quality depth here.

Edge rushers Jonathan Greenard (12 sacks, 67 hits+hurries) and Andrew Van Ginkel (11.5 sacks, 42 hits+hurries) are both impact players for the Vikings.

Greenard in particular was an absolute problem, breaking into the backfield and shutting down opposing running plays before they got started. Ginkel isn’t quite as explosive. He did a fine job beating his man. Flores places a lot of trust in both of them.

2024 first-round pick Dallas Turner averaged fewer than 20 snaps per game last season. The depth chart has thinned so he should get plenty of more opportunities this year.

Inside linebackers Blake Cashman (4.5 sacks, 37 hits+hurries) and Ivan Pace (three sacks, 16 hits+hurries) are solid contributors for the Vikings. Cashman impressed me last season with his ability to dominate in space.

Free-agent pickup Eric Wilson and rookie sixth-round pick Kobe King will provide depth. Wilson may prove to be a coverage specialist.

If Flores didn’t trick you, cornerback Byron Murphy might just beat your best receiver man-on-man. Murphy had six interceptions last season, excelling in a number of tough situations. He can play outside or nickelback. He’ll start the season at nickelback.

Free-agent pickup Isaiah Rodgers will start outside. Rodgers did a decent job for the Eagles last season. This would be a step up in difficulty.

He’ll start across from Jeff Okudah. Okudah barely played for the Texans last season. That’s not exactly inspiring, but I am sure Flores requested his services for a reason.

Strong safety Josh Metellus was recently gruntled, signing an extension in July. He’ll pair with veteran Harrison Smith. Smith turned 36 in February. I’d be concerned but the fact is he is still playing at a high level.

2023 fourth-round pick Jay Ward will provide depth.

Special teams have been a recurring issue for Minnesota, finishing in the bottom three in DVOA in three of the past five seasons. They finished 27^th last year.

2024 sixth-round pick kicker Will Reichard did not live up to his lofty draft status. Perhaps better health this season will allow him to rebound.

As of right now, punter Ryan Wright is in a camp competition with Aussie style punter Oscar Chapman. Wright was lousy last season. I’ll be pulling for Chapman.

(Update: Wright won. Oh well.)

Tai Felton is going to get a look at returning kicks. There is a whole committee that the Vikings are considering for punt returns. The Vikings did a poor job returning kicks last season, and they were worse returning punts. I’m going to keep my expectations low until we see some improvement.

Last year the Vikings rode an excellent defense and a slightly above-average offense into a 14-3 record. This year they’ll be looking to develop J.J. McCarthy into a franchise quarterback.

It’s well known that the Vikings haven’t ever won a Super Bowl. Technically, they won an NFL Championship in 1970, but since they went on to lose to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, it is effectively treated like winning the NFC. In other words, the Vikings are still waiting to win it all.

Which brings me back to J.J. McCarthy. He won in college. He’s convinced Thor. Now he just needs to prove he can beat NFL defenses. There’s plenty of talent around him. The offensive line should be significantly improved in pass protection. The defense is still lead by Brian Flores. There’s real hope in Minnesota. But man, this division is tough. 9-8.

Denver Broncos

2024 Record: 10.7

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 9.99

NYT/Athletic Wins: 9.2

DVOA Wins: 9.5

FPI Wins: 9.0

Market Estimates:

Market Wins: 9.55

Implied Pythag: 57.50%

Russell Wilson will count for $32M against Denver’s salary cap this season. If that sounds bad, you should know he counted for $85M against it last season. Denver will be free from that contract in 2026. Hallelujah!

2024 first-round pick Bo Nix was everything Denver hoped for and more:

2024: 3,775 yards, 29 TD, 12 INT, 6.1 NY/P, 2.2% DVOA, 602 DYAR

Those are fantastic numbers for a rookie quarterback, particularly the sixth quarterback off the board.

Some concerns remain. Nix has not demonstrated that he’s the kind of quarterback that can beat good pass defense when Denver is behind the sticks. Both he and head coach Sean Payton excelled at finding defensive weaknesses and taking what they were given. That’s a useful skill to be sure. But it’s not what championships are made of. We’ll see if Nix has an additional gear this season.

#1WR Courtland Sutton saw his productivity go up, but his efficiency drop, with Bo Nix:

2023: 59 receptions, 772 yards, +4.0 +/-, 15.7% DVOA, 211 DYAR (in 16 games)

2024: 81 receptions, 1,081 yards, +1.1 +/-, 2.7% DVOA, 166 DYAR

Sutton won a lot of 50-50 balls that didn’t necessarily have to be 50-50 last season.

2023 second-round pick Marvin Mims also saw his efficiency decline:

2023: 22 receptions, 303 yards, +1.9 +/-, 19.8% DVOA, 83 DYAR (in 16 games)

2024: 39 receptions, 503 yards, +0.8 +/-, -1.7% DVOA, 43 DYAR

Sure, his usage increased. It wasn’t exactly like Denver was force-feeding him the ball.

Rookie third-round pick Pat Bryant gives the Broncos an additional option:

Pat Bryant: 6’2, 204, 9.50-inch hands. Not the combine Bryant was looking for. 97 receptions for 1,544 yards and 17 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Illinois.

The truth is Bryant isn’t a premium athlete. He won with length and good hands. He took great effort to improve his pass-catching technique after some rough drops in 2022 and 2023. I will say that Bryant has flashed some impressive ability to cut and present his quarterback a clear target in rhythm.

He was quite effective at making contested catches at Illinois, but that’s a tough way to make a living in the NFL. It’s hard to get on the field if you can’t be trusted to create separation. Bryant is one of the many day-three options.

I guess he’ll have the chance to learn from Courtland Sutton.

2024 fourth-round pick Troy Franklin will compete for playing time:

2024: 28 receptions, 263 yards, -4.7 +/-, -37.4% DVOA, -101 DYAR (in 16 games)

Not great Troy!

I remain baffled by the TE Evan Engram signing. The money isn’t insane ($16.5M guaranteed, $23M total for two seasons.) The issue is performance. Back in 2023 he was Trevor Lawrence’s safety blanket:

2023: 114 receptions, 963 yards, +9.4 +/-, -4.7% DVOA, 24 DYAR

Last season was a disaster:

2024: 47 receptions, 365 yards, +0.4 +/-, -15.9% DVOA, -36 DYAR (in nine games)

He’s coming back from a torn labrum. The dude hasn’t been explosive in years. I’ll acknowledge tight end was a huge need for Denver. I am not sure Engram would have been one of my first choices.

The depth here is mediocre. Adam Trautman looks like the next man up.

Free-agent pickup J.K Dobbins is clearly not the back he once was:

2024: 234 squid, 1,058 yards, -5.2% DVOA, 27 DYAR (in 13 games)

He’s a fungible running back who has no real place in your passing game.

Rookie second-round pick RJ Harvey is much more interesting. Harvey is blazingly fast with 4.4-speed. He ran for 2,993 yards over his final two seasons at UCF. The dude will give Denver’s offense some juice.

It is very difficult to sack Bo Nix. Part of that is his mobility. Part of that is the structure of the passing game. And part of it was due to solid offensive line play.

Left tackle Garett Bolles and left guard Ben Powers both finished 15^th in my rankings.

2022 fifth-round pick Luke Wattenberg finished 12^th.

Right guard Quinn Meinerz was excellent, finishing 6^th.

The one weak link was right tackle Mike McGlinchey. He struggled last season, finishing 26^th in my rankings. He sucked in 2023 as well. His contract is an albatross. Let’s just move on.

2023 seventh-round pick Alex Forsyth provides decent depth inside. Neither backup tackle Matt Peart nor Alex Palczewski is built to provide much more than a stopgap outside.

The Broncos have built a championship-level defense. Defensive end Zach Allen had a monster year (8.5 sacks, 92 hits+hurries). Fellow end John Franklin-Myers was no slouch himself (seven sacks, 49 hits+hurries). Both were stout against the run.

The Broncos added some additional talent here with third-round selection Sai’vion Jones:

Sai’vion Jones: 6’5, 280, 33.5-inch arms. Solid combine. 11.5 sacks and 18 tackles for loss over his final three seasons at LSU.

Jones isn’t an edge as much as he’s an old school defensive end. He plays with the kind of power and intensity that you used to see from defensive ends when the NFL was a rush-first league. In that sense, he’s a bit of a throwback.

His pass-rush skills are a bit raw and I don’t expect there’s a lot of room for growth in that regard. I suppose he can kick inside, but I don’t see that as the best use of his skills.

I will say that he definitely took plays off. In the NFL, he should be a useful part of the rotation. Let him give max effort for a few plays and then rest. Jones is a quality football player whose skills might not be in high demand. I see an early day-three value.

2024 fourth-round pick Eyioma Uwazurike and 2022 sixth-round pick Jordan Jackson will provide depth.

The Broncos rotate nose tackles D.J. Jones and Malcolm Roach, trying to keep them under 30 snaps per game. Both did a fine job against the run. They also combined for 3.5 sacks and 37 hits+hurries.

Edge-rushers Jonathan Cooper (10.5 sacks, 63 hits+hurries) and 2022 second-round pick Nik Bonitto (13.5 sacks, 61 hits+hurries) did their jobs quite well. 2024 third-round pick Jonal Elliss (five sacks, 20 hits+hurries) had a fine season as part of the rotation. So did former Birmingham Stallion Dondrea Tillman (five sacks, 25 hits+hurries). Tillman was highly effective in limited usage.

The also added Que Robinson in the fourth round. Robinson is a converted safety who may be viewed as a linebacker or an undersized edge. He was a special teams ace at Alabama and will assuredly make his first impact in the NFL there.

The Broncos picked up former 49ers star linebacker Dre Greenlaw in free agency. He’ll pair with Alex Singleton.

Singleton missed almost all of last season with a torn ACL. I noted last year that I view Singleton as a garbageman who collects tackles but isn’t an impact player. Opponents will attack Singleton in the passing game when presented with the opportunity to do so.

Justin Strnad will provide depth. His last name always looks like a typo to me. Injuries forced him onto the field last season. I thought he acquitted himself admirably.

Star #1CB Patrick Surtain returned to his dominant form last season, winning Defensive Player of the Year. His ability to match up with elite receivers 1-on-1 allows for more blitz packages, or for the defense to double-cover other receiving threats.

That additional help did not do #2CB 2023 third-round pick Riley Moss much good. He beat out Levi Wallace for the job, which is damning by faint praise. Opponents torched Moss.

Nickelback Ja’Quan McMillian worked his way up from being an undrafted free agent to the practice squad to the starting lineup. He did a fine job last season. In this case, I think he benefited from additional coverage help and the fierce pass rush. The Broncos might have drafted his replacement Jahdae Barron in the first round.

Jahdae Barron: 5’11, 194, 4.39-forty. Excellent athlete. Five interceptions in 16 games for Texas last season.

Barron has played both outside and in the slot. He has proven he can handle either role well. Less a true ball hawk than an opportunist who reads and reacts quickly to opportunities to jump the route. Barron has also demonstrated he’s a special teams ace.

If there’s a notable weakness here, it’s that he didn’t play like he had sub-4.4 speed. He’s projected to be a nickelback in the NFL. I could also see him functioning well in a zone scheme.

One concern: Barron will turn 24 in December. I’m giving him a first-round grade, outside of the top 20

I have to say that I would not have expected the Broncos to look for McMillian’s replacement before finding a #2CB to start across from Surtain. I suppose it is possible that the Broncos will see where Barron fits best and plug him in there.

(Update: It looks like Barron will start at nickelback.)

Free-agent pickup safety Talanoa Hufanga missed most of last season with a wrist injury. He also was recovering from a torn ACL. When he returned, he wasn’t 100%. He presents some potential coverage upside, with a proven ability to stop the run.

Hufanga will pair with Brandon Jones. Jones had three interceptions last year and generally handled his responsibilities well.

I am slightly amused that the safety backups are P.J. Locke and Devon Key.

I am excited to see rookie sixth-round pick punter Jeremy Crawshaw in Denver this season. Crawshaw is Australian. His first love was rugby. He switched to Australian rules football before going to Florida. He has a strong leg and was the only punter to make my top 300 prospects list.

Kicker Will Lutz was pretty good last season.

Return man Marvin Mims did a good job on kick and punt returns. Overall, Denver’s special teams look like a source of strength.

Denver’s roster is prepared to go as far as Bo Nix can take them. Having a starting quarterback on a rookie contract is a huge advantage, although in this case it is somewhat mitigated by the Russell Wilson contract that’s still on the books. An elite defense will allow for the championship window to creep open. But is Nix that dude? I… don’t think so.

Nix displayed competence. That’s something. When he starts scaring defenses by forcing them to react to him, and not the other way around, I’ll start to believe. As it is, we’re looking at a great defense chained to a decent offense. 10-7.

Kansas City Chiefs

2024 Record: 15-2

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 10.89

NYT/Athletic Wins: 10.9

DVOA Wins: 10.6

FPI Wins: 10.35

Market Estimates:

Market Wins: 11.19

Implied Pythag: 68.73

There are a lot of different things to take away from last season.

1. The Chiefs were able to snag the #1 seed in the AFC despite not being particularly dominant.

2. The Chiefs were able to win the AFC by handling their business at home in the playoffs.

3. The Bills and Ravens are both coming off historic five-year runs of elite performance (per DVOA) without a Super Bowl appearance between them.

4. The Chiefs have won two of the past three Super Bowls.

5. The Chiefs got absolutely smoked by the Eagles.

The Super Bowl was over before the Chiefs got on the board. It was a mismatch in the trenches. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes looked human. Tight end Travis Kelce looked old.

It’s hard to three-peat in the NFL. The Chiefs were the first team to thrice make it back to the Super Bowl, a feat eight other two-time defending champions had failed to accomplish before them.

I don’t normally look this far back, but it’s worth seeing the kind of run Mahomes is on:

2019: 4,031 yards, 26 TD, 5 INT, 7.8 NY/P, 30.0% DVOA, 1,386 DYAR (in 14 games)

2020: 4,740 yards, 38 TD, 6 INT, 7.5 NY/P, 31.7% DVOA, 1,764 DYAR (in 15 games)

2021: 4,839 yards, 37 TD, 13 INT, 6.8 NY/P, 18.6% DVOA, 1,452 DYAR

2022: 5,250 yards, 41 TD, 12 INT, 7.5 NY/P, 26.5% DVOA, 1,847 DYAR

2023: 4,183 yards, 27 TD, 14 INT, 6.4 NY/P, 11.5% DVOA, 1,036 DYAR (in 16 games)

2024: 3,928 yards, 26 TD, 11 INT, 6.0 NY/P, 7.7% DVOA, 881 DYAR (in 16 games)

That performance was enough to lock up the #1 seed in the AFC with a week to spare. I can’t fault the results. I can’t ignore the trendline either. Back in 2022 Mahomes was terrifying. Now, he’s winning with skill and experience.

The issue isn’t solely Mahomes. He hasn’t had an elite #1WR since the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill away. With Kelce aging, who can Mahomes trust to win 1-on-1 battles?

The answer should be 2023 second-round pick Rashee Rice. Rice was well on his way to becoming that dude last season:

2023: 79 receptions, 938 yards, +3.4 +/-, 15.3% DVOA, 224 DYAR (in 16 games)

2024: 24 receptions, 288 yards, +1.9 +/-, 27.5% DVOA, 96 DYAR (in four games)

A torn ACL ended his season after just four games. It appears Rice will miss the first portion of this season due to a suspension. If he can return and build on what he’s done previously, Mahomes will have a true deep threat that can stretch and scare defenses.

(Update: Rice has been suspended for the first six weeks of the season.)

2024 first-round pick Xavier Worthy had some rough numbers, but he closed strong:

2024: 59 receptions, 638 yards, -7.2 +/-, -7.8% DVOA, 38 DYAR

The biggest issue was that Worthy was terrible working deep. Fixing that alone would be enough to redeem his performance. I’m expecting much better things from him in 2025.

Hollywood Brown is going to get a mulligan. Last year was a disaster, as a shoulder injury kept him off the field for most of the season. He wasn’t effective when available (-18.6% DVOA, -7 DYAR). At this point it’s impossible to know what he’s capable of. He might still be a dangerous weapon. He might be washed. I’m glad I could be of service here.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is a solid #4 WR:

2024: 18 receptions, 231 yards, -1.5 +/-, 17.4% DVOA, 64 DYAR (in 14 games)

He showed up when needed, got targeted when open, and did his job in a professional fashion. The concern is when he has to start beating men regularly. That’s a tough ask at this point.

Rookie fourth-round pick Jalen Royals might have landed in the perfect situation:

Royals is a tricky player to scout. He was able to win with straight-line speed in college. He won’t be able to do so as easily in the NFL. He learned how to beat Mountain West coverage with some nice footwork. The issue is that he’s still fairly raw. He’ll need some time and reps to start running routes with the precision he’ll need to succeed in the pros.

The one area that I’m confident in is his hands. Royals excelled at catching the ball with his hands and not losing momentum. That skill alone should allow him to run shallow crossing routes with success. His YAC skills flashed on film.

While Royals has some experience returning kicks I didn’t see the kind of explosion that would make it worth it to put him back there.

Royals strikes me as a project with decent upside. I’d be willing to gamble on him in the third round.

Royals looks like a nice option for Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to experiment with.

Tight end Travis Kelce finally got old last season:

2022: 110 receptions, 1,338 yards, +7.8 +/-, 15.2% DVOA, 248 DYAR

2023: 93 receptions, 984 yards, +7.3 +/-, 12.7% DVOA, 152 DYAR (in 15 games)

2024: 97 receptions, 823 yards, +5.3 +/-, -13.5% DVOA, -57 DYAR (in 16 games)

Kelce will turn 36 in October. The mind is willing (and wise), but the body simply doesn’t move like it used to. He has talked about retirement. It’s tough to go out on a down note. On the other hand, the Chiefs probably could have used the cap space.

(Update: Congrats on the engagement.)

Noah Gray has earned the chance to start:

2024: 40 receptions, 437 yards, +6.0 +/-, 30.4% DVOA, 131 DYAR

With Rice’s expected suspension, there will be more balls to go around. Gray should get some of them.

I’m expecting running backs Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco to split time this season. Pacheco was limited by injuries last year. Hunt was fine:

2024: 232 squid, 904 yards, 0.7% DVOA, 111 DYAR (in 13 games)

I’m expecting Pacheco to bounce back this year.

First, the Chiefs’ offensive line got blown up in the Super Bowl. Then, they lost star left guard Joe Thuney in free agency. Danger!

The Chiefs recognized the issue. 2023 third-round pick left tackle Wanya Morris got destroyed in limited usage his rookie season. He did no better last year, finishing 38^th in my rankings. Enter rookie first-round pick Josh Simmons:

Josh Simmons: 6’5, 317, 34.50-inch arms (pro day, unofficial). An October knee injury ended his season early.

Simmons has the size and length teams are looking for. His film shows a player who is still developing the skills he’ll need to start in the NFL. I wouldn’t want to call him a project as much as a player who is a work in progress.

His best film made him look like a potential monster. NFL-level speed, power, and agility were all on display. He has played well on both sides of the line.

There’s one issue that he’ll need to address: penalties. Simmons was a flag magnet, and that was with officials not calling him on every obvious infraction. He’ll need to clean that up before officials start profiling him.

Simmons is a medical red flag and I cannot evaluate his health. His upside is that of the top LT in this class. Top-20 value (if healthy).

Simmons looks great so far this preseason. If he’s healthy, the Chiefs could have fixed a long-term problem.

2024 second-round pick tackle Kingsley Suamataia got demolished at left tackle last season. Either he, or Mike Caliendo, will take over for Thuney at left guard. Whoever wins, this looks like a very large downgrade. Very large.

Center Creed Humphrey finished second in my rankings last season. He is quite good.

Right guard Trey Smith earned a trip to the Pro Bowl last season. He also finished 39^th in my rankings. Now, I can’t quantify his contributions to the running game. He did some nice work there. But his pass protection is poor, and on a team with Patrick Mahomes, that’s what I would prioritize. The Chiefs hit Smith with a franchise tag before signing him to a new deal.

Look, the Chiefs are a smart organization (some wonky drafting aside). They value Smith very highly. I’ve never liked his pass protection and wonder if perhaps teams overvalue offensive linemen who regularly take out defenders downfield in the running game.

Right tackle Juwaan Taylor remains a penalty magnet. If you ignore that… he still kind of sucks.

So, we’re looking at a reliable center, a Pro Bowl right guard (for his run blocking). and rookie first-round pick left tackle. After that, ugh.

(Editor’s note: The Chiefs were terrible at preventing pressure last season, but reasonable at avoiding sacks. This is a compliment to Patrick Mahomes.)

Interestingly, the Chiefs’ defense mirrored their offense. They excelled at getting pressure but had trouble turning that into sacks.

Star defensive tackle Chris Jones was just as disruptive as he’d been previously, but he saw his sack total drop from 10.5 in 2023 to 5.0 last year (his hits+hurries increased from 72 to 75.)

Jones will line up alongside a mix of Mike Pennel, Jerry Tillery, and rookie second-round pick Omarr Norman-Lott:

Omarr Norman-Lott: 6’2, 291, 34-inch arms. Decent athleticism.

Lott might end up being a pass-rush specialist. He showed promise in that regard at Tennessee. He has an above-average set of moves to beat offensive linemen. Tennessee used him as a rotational player, so his endurance wasn’t seriously tested.

I can’t see Lott being an every-down player inside. He simply doesn’t have the size. It’s possible he can develop into a 3-4 defensive end who kicks inside on passing downs. For now, I am going to presume he’s limited to being a pass-rush specialist inside. That’s pretty niche. On the other hand, pass-rush skills are quite valuable, and there aren’t many interior linemen who specialize at getting to the quarterback.

Lott is kind of a luxury piece. I don’t think I would take him until early on day three. I’d understand how he’d provide a nice roster upgrade for some teams and might come off the board earlier.

Hopefully, Lott can take advantage of some of the opportunities Jones will provide.

2022 first-round pick defensive end George Karlaftis (eight sacks, 89 hits+hurries) did some nice work last season. His counterpart, Mike Danna (3.5 sacks, 16 hits+hurries) was not as impactful. Danna had 6.5 sacks (33 hits+hurries) back in 2023, so perhaps 2024 was just an off year.

Back in 2023 Charles Omenihu had seven sacks, 21 hits+hurries in 11 games. A torn ACL ended his season. He had one sack in six games last season. Hopefully, he can return to his 2023 form (and perhaps jump Danna in the rotation.)

There’s also a fresh new face, rookie third-round pick Ashton Gillotte:

2021: 4 sacks, 8 TFL

2022: 7 sacks, 8 TFL

2023: 11 sacks, 15 TFL

2024: 4.5 sacks, 10 TFL

I tried to see if there were any changes I could diagnose on film. Apart from perhaps a few more double-teams, I think it was just a matter of luck and variance. And of playing two fewer games in 2024 than he played in 2023.

Gillotte possesses a rare mix of explosion and power. His best film makes him look like a first-round talent. That’s the exception, though. I think this is a case where arm length tells the story. It’s hard for him to make consistent first contact on the edge. He also has a smaller grab radius when he’s broken into the backfield. That’s not something his coaches can fix.

I think Gillotte can be a useful rotational player. I’d look to pick him up early in the third round.

I trust Karlaftis. We’ll see about the other three.

Middle linebacker Nick Bolton got a new deal. He earned it, as he is effective in coverage and against the run. Bolton keeps the middle of the Chiefs’ defense on point.

2022 third-round pick Leo Chenal and Drue Tranquill return as well. Tranquill is not great in pass coverage, but the Chiefs value his power against the run. Chenal is more of a finesse piece who excels in coverage.

Rookie fifth-round pick Jeffrey Bassa will be in the mix as well:

Jeffrey Bassa: Another undersized fast linebacker. Bassa was a reliable contributor for all four seasons at Oregon.

Bassa is a converted safety who retained some of those coverage skills. Played a little conservatively, but perhaps that was what his coaches asked him to do.

Bassa displayed good range. His size limits his power, but I will say he delivered some pretty good hits when he had the chance.

As with a number of other linebackers in this draft, Bassa has proven himself as a special teams ace. That’s probably where he’ll make an immediate impact in the NFL. I see Bassa as a fourth-round value.

I must confess, I’m kind of intrigued by a Chenal-Bassa pairing. That’s a lot of athleticism flanking Bolton. But I expect Chenal and Bassa will actually be competing for playing time.

2022 first-round pick Trent McDuffie was thrust into the #1CB job when L’Jarius Sneed left for Tennessee in 2024. He did his best, snagging a couple of interceptions, and producing decent coverage numbers. He’s not a true #1CB though, and it shows. It looks like he’ll start at nickelback this season.

Free-agent pickup Kristian Fulton has a lengthy injury history, most recently a knee injury that put him on the PUP list. The Chiefs are paying him starting cornerback money. He was pretty good in 2022 but hasn’t been that dude over the past two years. I didn’t love this signing.

Jaylen Watson missed most of last season with an ankle injury. His difference mattered to the defense. He suffered a concussion this preseason. The Chiefs are hoping he can start at #2CB.

Rookie third-round pick Nohl Williams will provide depth. I gave him a sixth-round grade. Normally when that happens, it’s due to a cornerback having sub-4.4 speed. That’s not the case here. Williams had seven interceptions last season for Cal. He also returned a kickoff for a touchdown. My concern is that he was a flag magnet in college. I don’t mind this pick too much if Kansas City can give him some scheme protection.

2022 second-round pick free safety Bryan Cook did fine work for Kansas City last season.

2023 fourth-round pick Chamarri Conner and 2024 fourth-round pick Jaden Hicks are competing for the other starting job. Conner provides a bit more versatility. Hicks provides more power. I think Hicks has more upside.

Punt god Matt Araiza was… pretty good? The Chiefs will take it.

Kicker Harrison Butker was lousy. The Chiefs are kind of stuck with him due to his contract. They have to be hoping for a bounce-back season.

Nikko Remigio looks like he’ll handle the return jobs. The Chiefs have decent options to replace him if he struggles.

Four questions for the offense:

1. Is Mahomes declining?

2. Is the wide receiver corps dangerous?

3. Is Travis Kelce washed?

4. Is the offense line solid?

My answers:

1. Maybe a bit, but from the highest of peaks. Give him proper protection and legitimate weapons and he’s still Patrick Mahomes.

2. With Rice available, I think so. My expectations for Brown are low. Worthy and Royals both have nice upside potential.

3. Arguably he’s stayed on for one year too long already. That’s understandable, though. You don’t want to leave a potential ring on the table.

4. Hopefully Simmons is as good as he’s looked. Otherwise, :[

Defensively, they should be solid. They need the offense to bounce back if they want to return to the Super Bowl. I see the Chiefs actually being a bit better than they were last year, even if the record will almost assuredly be worse. 12-5.

Las Vegas Raiders

2024 Record: 4-13

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 7.47

NYT/Athletic Wins: 7.6

DVOA Wins: 8.3

FPI Wins: 7.5

Market Estimates:

Market Wins: 7.06

Implied Pythag: 41.93

The Raiders are desperately trying to reclaim mediocrity. When you’ve just experienced 4-13, 8-9 doesn’t seem so bad. To that end, they hired coach Pete Carroll and traded for quarterback Geno Smith:

2022: 4,282 yards, 30 TD, 11 INT, 6.3 NY/P, 7.3% DVOA, 812 DYAR

2023: 3,624 yards, 20 TD, 9 INT, 6.4 NY/P, 10.0% DVOA, 732 DYAR (in 15 games)

2024: 4,320 yards, 21 TD, 15 INT, 6.3 NY/P, -2.1% DVOA, 365 DYAR

Smith produced a lot of yardage last season, but going from 14 sacks and fumbles in 2023 to 24 sacks and fumbles in 2024 more than counterbalanced it. Hopefully, going back to working with coach Carroll will allow him to minimize turnovers. Otherwise, he’s a reasonable quarterback. Smith will turn 35 in October. Carroll will turn 74 in September. This team is built to win… not embarrass itself now.

Normally I’d talk about the wide receivers next, but they aren’t the story in Vegas. 2024 first-round pick tight end Brock Bowers had a monster rookie campaign:

2024: 112 receptions, 1,194 yards, +2.2 +/-, 4.8% DVOA, 121 DYAR

Those are absurd numbers, particularly in the context of a terrible Raiders offense. Bowers is legit.

2023 second-round pick Michael Mayer regressed with Bowers’s addition:

2023: 27 receptions, 304 yards, +0.8 +/-, 20.5% DVOA, 71 DYAR (in 14 games)

2024: 21 receptions, 156 yards, -3.0 +/-, -27.5% DVOA, -44 DYAR (in 11 games)

Mayer remains a premium athlete. Hopefully, Carroll knows how to get the best out of this pairing. At worst, they can run 2TE sets and use Mayer as a blocker for first-round pick running back Ashton Jeanty:

Ashton Jeanty: 5’8 ½, 211. He’s built more similarly to Barry Sanders (5’8, 203) than he is to Saquon Barkley (6’0, 233).

Ashton Jeanty pro day results:

40-yard dash: Didn’t run

10-yard split: N/A

Vertical leap: N/A

Broad jump: N/A

3-cone drill: N/A

Shuttle: N/A

Bench press: Declined

Well then. To the film we go. Jeanty ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns. He wasn’t a major part of the passing game (138 yards, 1 touchdown), although that wasn’t the case in 2023 (569 yards, 5 touchdowns).

Jeanty’s vision, balance, and acceleration are all elite. The man dominated for a reason. I’m a wee bit concerned that Boise State leaned on him a bit too hard (Jeanty averaged 31 carries-per-game over the final nine games).

If he has a clear weakness, it’s ball security. Penn State made attacking the ball a priority, forcing two fumbles. It’s an issue that can be corrected, albeit not without tradeoffs. Increased ball security comes at the expense of decreased elusiveness and speed. It also makes it harder to break tackles, a Jeanty specialty.

Jeanty looks to be a solid receiver. I’m not buying the “elite catch radius” nonsense. The dude is 5’8 with sub-30-inch arms. But his hands looked good on him. He’s also a willing and intelligent blocker in pass protection, but again, those skills are limited by his size.

The question is whether Jeanty is worthy of a top-10 selection?

No.

The man might be built a bit like Barry Sanders, but he doesn’t run like him. Sanders was terrifying to NFL defenses in a way that Jeanty won’t be. He’s fast, but he’s not a freak. He dominated the Mountain West, not the SEC. He averaged 3.5 yards-per-carry against Penn State on 30 carries. Jeanty is a very good football player, and he’ll be a good pro. But he’s not going to move the needle the way his team is going to want him to.

I’m not going to ding him for not doing the drills. Great performances in them wouldn’t raise his draft stock any higher. The film says Jeanty has quality football speed. He’s fast, elusive, and recognizes his lanes well. He’s going to be a very good NFL player. But running backs were devalued for a reason. The success of Barkley and Henry was built off of the success of Hurts and Jackson.

I wouldn’t touch Jeanty until all the premium options at the high value positions were off the board, which is to say not until the mid-to-late teens. I expect he’ll be long gone by then.

Geno Smith loves throwing to his running backs. He’s accurate when doing so too, so Jeanty should be a good fit here.

It’s not clear who the #2RB will be. Raheem Mostert is coming off an injury-plagued season (-21.1% DVOA, -42 DYAR). 2022 fourth-round pick Zamir White was awful (-58.5% DVOA, -147 DYAR). Jeanty better be prepared for a heavy workload.

#1(ish) receiver Jakobi Meyers will welcome the arrival of Geno Smith:

2023: 71 receptions, 807 yards, -0.5 +/-, 8.1% DVOA, 173 DYAR (in 16 games)

2024: 87 receptions, 1,027 yards, +5.1 +/-, -1.7% DVOA, 112 DYAR (in 15 games)

Given the upgrade in quarterback play, Meyers should be a more efficient target this season.

2023 third-round pick Tre Tucker is not to blame for his regression last season:

2023: 19 receptions, 331 yards, +0.3 +/-, 8.9% DVOA, 59 DYAR (in 16 games)

2024: 47 receptions, 539 yards, -2.4 +/-, -19.8% DVOA, -45 DYAR

When a wide receiver is targeted with an uncatchable ball, both he and the quarterback get dinged. One might question the fairness of such a system. In the case of Tucker, that was taken to its extremes. As with Meyers, I expect Tucker to perform better with Smith.

Rookie second-round pick Jack Bech should make an immediate impact:

Jack Bech: 6’1, 214, 9.00-inch hands. I’ll let you decide if you feel comfortable giving a 9.50 relative athletic score to a wide receiver who didn’t run the 40. He’s been credited with a 4.55 but I’m not sure where that number is coming from.

Let’s focus on the film. Bech had 62 receptions for 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns for TCU last season. He followed that up with an MVP-winning performance at the Senior Bowl.

I know this is kind of weird to say, given it’s the main part of the job, but Bech is very good at catching footballs. Seriously. He makes it look easy. His hands, his technique, the way he boxes out the defender. Bech is the kind of guy who can earn his quarterback’s trust.

He’s also a truly elite blocker. That’s not the main part of the job, but it is something his coaches will appreciate. Running the ball takes a team effort. He’ll chip in.

The concern is whether or not he’ll be able to get open in the NFL. My guess is at worst he’ll be an effective zone-buster. I’m less confident in his ability to win vs. man-to-man. He also has a tricky injury history that teams will need to evaluate.

If he’s given a green light, he’s an early round-three guy for me.

I am very confident that Bech’s blocking skills will get him on the field. Coaches love wide receivers who shield off defensive backs in the running game.

I gave rookie fourth-round pick Dont’e Thornton Jr. a seventh-round grade. This delta is easy to explain. Thornton ran a 4.3-40. He also never had more than 26 receptions in a season. I am skeptical. Other people are hopeful.

Left tackle Kolton Miller was quite good in 2023. Last season, he had shoulder issues and finished 30^th in my rankings. Hopefully he’s feeling much better.

It looks like 2022 third-round pick Dylan Parham is moving back to left guard after a rough season at right guard. He was fine on the left side in 2023.

Jordan Meridith is moving to center. He did a mediocre job bouncing between both guard positions last year.

2024 second-round pick Jackson Powers-Johnson is moving to right guard. He struggled badly at left guard last season, finishing 32^nd in my rankings.

2024 third-round pick right tackle DJ Glaze finished 35^th in my rankings last season. I had viewed Glaze as a day-three prospect and that’s how he looked last season.

The Raiders knew this offensive line needed some upgrades. Rookie third-round pick Charles Grant will require some time to develop:

Charles Grant: 6’5, 311, 34.75-inch arms. Mediocre combine.

Grant dominated at William & Mary. His dominance earned him an invite to the Senior Bowl and to the combine.

Grant came late to football, switching over from wrestling and bulking up. He’s still learning the finer points of his craft. It’s hard for me to judge his film given the level of competition simply isn’t comparable to what he’ll face in the NFL.

Physically, Grant is a bit undersized to play tackle. He’s already bulked up quite a bit, so I question if he’ll be able to add much more to his frame. Having said that, there have been lighter tackles than Grant. Perhaps he’ll be able to improve his anchoring technique and stay at tackle. I am not sure I like the idea of moving him to guard. Perhaps center.

Grant will need time to adjust to the increase in competition between FCS and the NFL. It’s been done before, and left tackles are hard to find. That makes him a late round-three value.

Rookie third-round pick Caleb Rogers will provide depth inside. Rogers is an excellent athlete. He’s played over 4,000 snaps in college, mostly at left tackle. He should be capable of starting in a year or two.

Defensive end Malcolm Koonce missed all of last season with a torn ACL in his knee. Back in 2023 he had eight sacks and 42 hits+hurries lining up across from star defensive end Maxx Crosby.

Crosby may have missed Koonce. Last season Crosby had 7.5 sacks and 66 hits+hurries. In 2023 he had 14.5 sacks and 85 hits+hurries. Hopefully they can recapture the 2023 magic.

2023 first-round pick Tyree Wilson (4.5 sacks, 33 hits+hurries) and Charles Snowden (1.5 sacks, 18 hits+hurries) will provide depth.

Defensive tackle Adam Butler followed up a fine 2023 season (five sacks, 19 hits+hurries) with another solid performance (five sacks, 31 hits+hurries). He’s a force against the run as well.

Butler will pair with trade acquisition Thomas Booker.

2024 seventh-round pick Jonah Laulu had a solid rookie campaign. He’ll be asked to shoulder a larger burden of the snaps this season.

Rookie fourth-round pick Tonka Hemingway will provide depth.

Hemingway is a bit of a DT/DE tweener. A former basketball player, he has some Dikembe Mutombo in him, looking to knock down passes at the line of scrimmage. Hemingway is a notably smart player, reacting quickly to action in front of him. I am just not sure he has NFL-level athleticism, which is why I gave him a sixth-round grade.

Rookie sixth-round pick JJ Pegues might be in the mix as well:

JJ Pegues: 6’2 1/2, 309, 32.5-inch arms. Lousy combine.

Pegues isn’t the kind of prospect that excites. He won or drew a lot of plays against elite competition.

He also was an effective short-yardage running back. Pegues is expected to come off the board around the middle of day three. I’d be on board with that. I’m a believer.

The Raiders rebuilt their linebacker corps in free-agency, signing Germaine Pratt, Elandon Roberts, and Devin White. It’s not the best linebacker corps money can buy, but it is a linebacker corps the Raiders could afford.

Pratt and Roberts will be asked to provide some oomph against the run. White has shown impressive coverage skills, albeit years ago in Tampa. We’ll see what he can do in Vegas.

The secondary has been rebuilt as well. Free-agent pickup cornerback Eric Stokes will start across from rookie third-round pick Darien Porter:

Darien Porter: 6’3, 195, 4.30-forty. S-tier combine. Three interceptions for the Cyclones last season.

Porter only became a starter at defensive back last season. That’s a little awkward because he turned 24 in January. Porter is a former track star who started out at wide receiver before switching to cornerback.

His best film is actually on special teams, where be blocked five kicks in his collegiate career. I will say that his track speed translates to football speed. He looked like he had a different gear than everyone else on the field.

He’s absurdly raw, which means he’ll need to play in a zone scheme with clear and simple responsibilities. In that context, you’re getting an elite athlete who can match up with almost anyone he’s covering.

I have to say, I’m wondering if he has value as part of a blitz package. He really is blazing fast off the snap. He also has 33+inch arms, which is helpful for winning around the edge.

Porter is a true project. He seems like a niche piece. I wouldn’t look to add him until late in the third round.

I didn’t expect him to land as a week one starter. Good luck, Mr. Porter.

(Update: Maybe he won’t be. Kyu Blu Kelly might end up starting instead.)

As for Mr. Stokes, he performed poorly in Green Bay. Injuries were part of the story, but more than that, he’s had trouble showing the talent that made him a first-round pick back in 2021.

Free-agent pickup safety Jeremy Chinn will be asked to start in the slot. This might be a tough ask.

I had a seventh-round grade for 2024 fourth-round pick Decamerion Richardson. He struggled mightily last season. He’s fast, but that might be the extent of it. He’ll provide depth.

Safety Isaiah Pola-Mao wouldn’t start on many NFL teams. In Vegas, he’ll pair with 2023 fifth-round pick Chris Smith.

The depth here is thin.

Kicker Daniel Carlson is a proven mediocrity. Punter AJ Cole has historically been good. Last year was rough, though.

I’m expecting Tre Tucker to handle punt returns. Zamir White is the favorite to handle kickoff returns.

If Cole returns to form, the Raiders’ special teams should be a slight strength.

There is a world where the Raiders get their shit together and compete for a wild card spot. Geno Smith improves the passing game. Jeanty produces 1,500+ yards-from-scrimmage. Bowers makes All-Pro. The pass-rush returns to form.

There are too many glaring holes for me to ignore, though. The secondary is speculative at best. The offensive line could be a disaster. And Geno Smith’s best days are long gone. I’m expecting a small step forward. 6-11.

Los Angeles Chargers

2024 Record: 11-6

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 9.15

NYT/Athletic Wins: 8.5

DVOA Wins: 7.8

FPI Wins: 9.4

Market Estimates:

Market Wins: 9.37

Implied Pythag: 56.67%

The 2024 Los Angeles Chargers were a good team that took advantage of a soft schedule. Then they imploded in Houston. Justin Herbert took four sacks and threw four interceptions. It was ugly.

To put this in perspective, Herbert threw three interceptions in the regular season:

2022: 4,737 yards, 25 TD, 10 INT, 6.2 NY/P, 2.7% DVOA, 640 DYAR

2023: 3,134 yards, 20 TD, 7 INT, 5.9 NY/P, 9.4% DVOA, 673 DYAR (in 13 games)

2024: 3,870 yards, 23 TD, 3 INT, 6.7NY/P, 14.7% DVOA, 968 DYAR

The Chargers were favored in both of Herbert’s playoff losses, twice losing to the AFC South champion.

I appreciate that so long as Patrick Mahomes is around, it is hard to win the AFC West. Getting to the divisional round is not an unreasonable ask for an elite(?) quarterback.

Herbert can make some of the most impressive throws I’ve ever seen. He’s learned how to minimize mistakes (the disaster at Houston notwithstanding.)

It really is time for Herbert to take the next step.

To that end(?), the Chargers signed running back Najee Harris:

2021: 401 squid, 1,667 yards, -7.0% DVOA, 47 DYAR

2022: 326 squid, 1,263 yards, -5.6% DVOA, 75 DYAR

2023: 293 squid, 1,205 yards, -2.7% DVOA, 87 DYAR

2024: 311 squid, 1,326 yards, -5.5% DVOA, 56 DYAR

That was the return on investment Pittsburgh got for their 2021 first-round pick. Don’t spend first-round picks on running backs, kids.

Harris will join rookie first-round pick Omarion Hampton:

Omarion Hampton: Well, look at that, Hampton did the drills. Over his final two seasons at UNC Hampton ran for 3,164 yards, with 595 yards receiving. The man was productive and effective.

Hampton has more power than speed or agility. He didn’t shy away from contact, taking the fight to the defense and regularly gaining an additional yard or two. That will endear him to his coaching staff. It also might wear him down against NFL defenses.

Hampton ran a fairly basic route tree, so don’t look for anything exotic from him in the passing game. His pass protection skills are solid. He’ll be a reliable blocker for his quarterback.

If there’s one unique strength I’d want to point to it’s his ability to slice through the hole. That’s due to a combination of power, vision, and timing. Hampton was patient, waiting for his blocking, with the power to ignore arm tackles. His main weakness is that he doesn’t have the elite speed to regularly bust off chunk plays. So be it, Hampton is a quality option at running back.

I’m still on the “don’t waste early picks on running backs” train and wouldn’t touch Hampton until early on day two. I expect he’ll be gone by then.

When the Chargers aren’t running the ball, 2024 second-round pick Ladd McConkey has proven himself to be a reliable target:

2024: 82 receptions, 1,149 yards, +7.6 +/-, 21.2% DVOA, 289 DYAR (in 16 games)

McConkey more than lived up to expectations. If he builds on what he did last season, he could join the league’s elites.

After a one-year stopover in Chicago, Keenan Allen will try to recapture the magic in Los Angeles:

2023: 108 receptions, 1,243 yards, +11.2 +/-, 10.3% DVOA, 272 DYAR (in 13 games)

2024: 70 receptions, 744 yards, -5.2 +/-, -12.2% DVOA, 5 DYAR (in 15 games)

Allen never Gelled with Caleb Williams. He has a much better working relationship with Justin Herbert. One concern, though: Allen turned 33 in April. He’s not the player he once was. I wouldn’t expect him to play like he did in 2023.

Rookie second-round pick Tre Harris will be in the mix as well:

Tre Harris: 6’2, 205, 9.625-inch hands. 114 receptions, 2,015 yards, 15 touchdowns over his 20 games at Ole Miss. Decent combine.

Harris impressed in a number of different ways. He displayed both physicality and technique to win 50-50 balls, particularly in the red zone. I’m not buying the “low contested catch rate.” He turned off-target throws into on-target throws. There were contested catches he missed that other wide receivers wouldn’t have had a chance at.

Elite ball tracking skills. Harris leveraged his deep threat capabilities, breaking back for short-catches with YAC potential. He was a team player, being a plus blocker in the running game. Harris produced against elite competition.

His biggest issue is he’s not a premium athlete. He’ll also need to improve his route-running, but that’s true for most of the class. I like Harris quite a bit and would be comfortable taking him in the second round.

I feel like I’m forgetting someone… oh yeah, 2023 first-round pick (and my overall top wide receiver of the 2023 NFL Draft), Quentin Johnston!

2023: 38 receptions, 431 yards, -3.2 +/-, -8.5% DVOA, 24 DYAR

2024: 55 receptions, 711 yards, -3.4 +/-, 8.4% DVOA, 149 DYAR (in 15 games)

It was a nice step forward for Johnston. Alas, he still doesn’t seem to have earned the coaching staff’s trust. Too many drops and a general inability to make plays has led to him possibly dropping to WR4. This is going to be a make-or-break year for Johnston.

Rookie fifth-round pick KeAndre Lambert-Smith gives the Chargers some additional sub-4.4 speed. We’ll see how they plan on using him.

#1TE Will Dissly had a nice first season in Los Angeles:

2024: 50 receptions, 481 yards, +2.1 +/-, 4.7% DVOA, 48 DYAR (in 15 games)

He’s an all-around solid performer who can appease coach Harbaugh with his blocking prowess.

Over the past four seasons with the Jets, Tyker Conklin produced -119 DYAR. At no point was he above replacement-level. The Chargers will soon test whether that was a Conklin issue or a NYJ issue.

Rookie fifth-round pick Oronde Gadsden will supply some additional athleticism.

Now it’s time for the bad news. The Chargers lost star left tackle Rashawn Slater for the season with a torn ACL. Slater finished eighth in my rankings last season and was expected to help drive the offense.

His loss will cause a cascade effect. 2024 first-round pick Joe Alt will move from right tackle to left tackle. I had Alt around the middle of the pack last season.

Trey Pipkins will move from right guard to right tackle. Pipkins struggled to prevent pressure last season, finishing outside of my top 32. His job just got much harder.

Free-agent pickup Mekhi Becton will take over at right guard. He finally stayed healthy in Philadelphia and flashed the power that the Jets drafted him for. Sigh. He should help the Chargers’ running game.

That just leaves returning starters 2022 first-round pick Zion Johnson and Bradley Bozeman. Johnson struggled at left guard and might be moved to center. Bozeman was fine at center last season.

Another option is free-agent pickup Andre James. James impressed me last season. He provides quality interior line depth.

I am not going to pretend the Chargers have any tackles they can trust. If someone else goes down, they might move Becton outside and plug James in at guard.

I’m worried that attrition has taken a toll on what was a pretty good defense.

Joey Bosa (five sacks, 36 hits+hurries) is now in Buffalo.

Poona Ford (three sacks, 21 hits+hurries) has switched locker rooms and now plays for the Rams.

Morgan Fox (3.5 sacks, 17 hits+hurries) is now in Atlanta.

That’s a hit to the interior defensive line and the pass rush.

Teair Tart and Otito Ogbonnia have been promoted to the starting lineup. They didn’t necessarily earn these promotions. They’ll start along free-agent pickup defensive end Da’Shawn Hand.

Rookie third-round pick nose tackle Jamaree Caldwell will join them in the defensive line rotation. Caldwell is a very large mammal. He’ll be trusted to stop the run and perhaps provide some interior pressure.

The Chargers will need their edge rushers to provide consistent pressure. 2023 second-round pick Tuli Tuipulotu (8.5 sacks, 42 hits+hurries) will start across from Khalil Mack (six sacks, 54 hits+hurries).

Bud Dupree (six sacks, 32 hits+hurries) and rookie fourth-round pick Kyle Kennard will round out the rotation:

Kyle Kennard: 6’4, 254, 34-inch arms. Decent athleticism. 11.5 sacks and 16 tackles for loss in a monster season at South Carolina.

Kennard impressed me multiple ways. He beat offensive linemen with his length and athleticism. He also beat them mentally, setting them up and defying their expectations. His read and recognition skills were on point as well.

Perhaps that was a necessary skill for him. He isn’t a bull-rusher who can march offensive linemen into the backfield. It’s hard to see Kennard having the power to be an every-down player, at least early in his career. He can start out as a pass-rush specialist. Early day-three value.

Kennard will turn 24 in December. He’ll be looking to make an immediate impact.

Denzel Perryman and 2023 third-round pick Daiyan Henley return for the linebacker corps. Henley was excellent last season, despite playing through an injured shoulder. He could be developing into a star.

Perryman’s tackling left much to be desired. 2024 third-round pick Junior Colson is waiting in the wings to take his job. We haven’t seen a lot from Colson. What we have seen was fine for a rookie.

Free-agent pickup Donte Jackson is coming off of an excellent season in Pittsburgh. Five interceptions and terrific coverage. He’ll start across from 2024 fifth-round pick Cam Hart.

Hart was the guy who made the sure tackle on a six-yard pass on 3^rd and five. He ended up with impressive raw numbers that kind of fell apart in context. Having said that, it was an inspiring rookie campaign for a fifth-round pick. He could develop into a quality CB2.

Fellow 2024 fifth-round pick nickelback Tarheeb Still was in many ways the opposite of Hart. Still embraced the variance, snagging four interceptions to Hart’s zero. He also got torched a few times. Still’s overall results were outstanding. The Chargers may have struck gold here.

2022 sixth-round pick Ja’Sir Taylor will see some playing time in dime formations. He was fine last season.

Cornerback/safety hybrid Derwin James remains excellent. His talent and flexibility are two of the reasons the Chargers’ defense was tough to pass against.

Alohi Gilman and Elijah Molden are competing for playing time alongside James. Gilman struggled with injuries last season. Molden snagged three interceptions and was more impactful against the run. Gilman was a pleasant surprise in 2023. If he doesn’t return to that form, I’d expect Molden to win this competition.

Rookie sixth-round pick RJ Mickens will provide depth.

Kicker Cameron Dicker is excellent. Punter JK Scott was impressive in 2023. Last year he was… fine.

Return specialist Derius Davis had a bit of an off year. He excelled returning punts in 2023. He didn’t excel at anything last season. I’m not sure he’s the best option for returning kicks. Hassan Haskins and KeAndre Lambert-Smith are waiting in the wings if Davis struggles.

I do not like the vibes coming out of Los Angeles. Losing Slater is a genuine disaster. Joe Alt might have the lofty draft status of a proper replacement, but his play last season did not impress me.

I’m not a huge fan of their draft, either. There are a lot of spots on the roster that could have benefited from a first-round selection. Adding Matthew Golden to the wide receiver corps could have been huge. But that’s not what Harbaugh does. He passed on Malik Nabers for Joe Alt. He passed on Golden for Hampton. He wants to build a strong running game. But points come out of the passing game.

The Chargers are still a good team. They have Justin Herbert to bail them out. I am not expecting a losing record. But I’m not expecting greatness either. 9-8.