A, belated, response to Wolf

April 28, 2025 3 comments

from Peter Radford

It is a question of distribution.

A friend of mine, here in Vermont, has disrupted my enjoyment of a pleasant spring morning by reminding me of what Martin Wolf says about populism.   Specifically he referred me to pages 180-181 of the Wolf book “The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism”.

I wish he hadn’t.  I have been cajoled into a rant:

My problem being that this is the very subject that has been vexing me for some time.  And, as regular readers of mine will know, I have been struggling to make sense of the recent panic over the “future of democracy”.

Having a future implies, I would suggest, also having a past.  Or at least a present.  After all you cannot lose something that you do not have.  The outrage and panic resulting from Trump’s so-called onslaught against democracy is the genesis of the debate about its future.  Entire armies of sensible and erudite people have devoted a great deal of energy to the topic.  Wolf can at least claim to have thought about it a bit before the current crisis.

The issue I have with Wolf’s description and analysis — restricting myself to those two pages for the moment — is that his prior commitments show through too easily.  He denigrates populism at every turn and dismisses it lightly through the use of various linguistic tricks. Read more…

Weekend read – Economics after empire: Rebuilding the discipline on moral foundations

April 25, 2025 16 comments

from Asad Zaman and WEA Pedagogy Blog

Section 1: Introduction — Questioning the Grand Narrative

According to the standard narrative, Europe’s rise was driven by superior institutions, rational governance, and scientific advancement. Wealth, power, and modernity are seen as the natural outcomes of internal European virtues—innovation, efficiency, and discipline. Implicitly or explicitly, social sciences – economics included – are built on these foundations.

Yet this account is misleading—not because it is entirely false, but because it omits too much.

It leaves out the institutional machinery that made conquest and exploitation economically viable. It ignores the ideological work that redefined violence as civilization and plunder as progress. And most crucially, it forgets that economics itself was born within this imperial context—emerging to make sense of, and legitimize, the transformation of European society under capitalism, colonization, and industrial war. As Geoffrey Hodgson argues, when economics cast off its historical roots in favor of timeless models and universal laws, it also forgot the very conditions that produced it.

What followed was a science unmoored from its origins—projecting European historical experience as a universal template. As Timothy Mitchell puts it:

“The possibility of social science is based upon taking certain historical experiences of the West as the template for a universal knowledge.”

This essay is an invitation to reconsider that template. We will examine how conquest was made profitable, how its moral costs were abstracted away, and how a discipline meant to understand human welfare became complicit in its erosion. By recovering the history of the origins of economics, we may begin to imagine a morally grounded, globally relevant economics.

Section 2: Wealth as a Moral Goal — The Enlightenment Turn 

Today’s economic discourse often treats the pursuit of wealth as self-evident, a natural expression of human behavior. But this framing is historically contingent. It emerged during the Enlightenment, when European thinkers sought to redefine the foundations of morality in a secular age. What replaced religion was not amorality, but a new moral logic—one that recast wealth, utility, and efficiency as virtuous ends in themselves.

Read more…

Garbage Time: running out the clock on America?

April 23, 2025 4 comments

from Peter Radford

“Do you not weep? Other sins only speak, murder shrieks out”

Webster is well known for the darkness of his plays. When he says murder shrieks out, I wonder which murder he is referring to. Or, perhaps, what is being murdered? These are dark days for freedom and democratic governance.

Yes.  I am grumpy this morning.  And so …

Wasn’t it Lenin who said that nothing happens for decades and then decades happen in a week?

Something like that.

The sudden collapse of American stature and reliability on the world stage has caught the breath of everyone.  What was once the center of a system protecting and valuing certain norms is now the rogue aggressor tearing down those very same norms.

Yes, decades have flown by in the past few weeks.

And, no, this is not normal.  Not normal at all.

Some of us have been accused of Read more…

Economics textbooks — peddling lies about money and finance

April 21, 2025 4 comments

from Lars Syll

For several years now, yours truly has been teaching an introductory economics course every fall for future social studies teachers. Alongside a few of my own books, Klas Eklund’s Vår ekonomi (Our Economy) is also on the reading list. The book was released in its 16th revised edition in December 2024—an impressive feat and in itself proof of the book’s many merits, not least its pedagogical value.

Rethinking Economics on X: "To mark #10YearsOn we had a meme competition -  here are some of them, enjoy! https://t.co/emJMS40JAb" / X

However, unfortunately, the book still has some major shortcomings, particularly when it comes to methodological and monetary issues.

Economics is a science that heavily relies on the use of models. Eklund presents modelling as “a kind of simplified description of reality” that helps economists conduct “thought experiments” and test their hypotheses. Reality does not look like economic models, but they are said to serve as a reference and starting point for economic analysis.

Already in the introductory chapters, the book presents the mainstream supply and demand model, where a core assumption is that firms’ short-run supply curve is represented by the so-called “marginal cost curve.” How it is still possible in 2024 to claim something like this—when we’ve known since Richard Lester’s research in the 1930s that it has nothing to do with real firms’ supply curves—is staggering. The resistance to facts is monumental. In any other science outside of economics, a textbook that so blatantly presents models and theories completely detached from reality would have quickly disappeared from course syllabi. Read more…

The deep roots of fascist thought

April 16, 2025 Leave a comment

from Blair Fix

For decades, the word ‘fascist’ existed solely as a hyperbole — a term meant to insult rather than describe. But lately, politics have grown so hyperbolic that the label looks increasingly sincere. For example, when a powerful man advocates far-right politics and brazenly performs Nazi salutes in front of a cheering crowd, it seems like we have a word for that.

What was it again? Ah yes … fascist.

Of course, fascism is easy to see when it happens elsewhere. But when it grows under your nose within your own culture, even the most blatant signs can seem obscure. So what we need, then, is a hard-nosed way to measure the spread of fascist ideology — a method that is calmly quantitative, immune to both apologetics and hyperbole. In my mind, the best option is to study patterns in written language.

Backing up a bit, all ideologies have words that they emphasize, corresponding to concepts that they deem important. Now, we can get a qualitative sense for these words by reading a corpus of ideological text. But if we want to quantify an ideology, a better approach is to count words. When we do so, we can objectively identify the ‘jargon’ of an ideology — the words that it uses frequently and (crucially) overuses relative to mainstream writing. And once we’ve got this jargon, we can return to written language at large and track the changing frequency of our ideological jargon. The goal is to use word frequency to measure the spread (or collapse) of the ideology in question.

In this essay, I’ll use word frequency to track the spread of fascist ideology.  read more

Rational expectations, uncertainty, and learning

April 13, 2025 4 comments

from Lars Syll

What Is Rational Expectations Theory ...The rational expectations hypothesis presupposes — basically for reasons of consistency — that agents have complete knowledge of all of the relevant probability distribution functions. When trying to incorporate learning in these models — trying to take the heat of some of the criticism launched against it up to date — it is always a very restricted kind of learning that is considered. Learning where truly unanticipated, surprising, new things never occur, but only rather mechanical updatings — increasing the precision of already existing information sets – of existing probability functions.

Nothing really new happens in these ergodic models, where the statistical representation of learning and information is nothing more than a caricature of what takes place in the real-world target system. This follows from taking for granted that people’s decisions can be portrayed as based on an existing probability distribution, which by definition implies the knowledge of every possible event (otherwise it is in a strict mathematical-statistically sense not really a probability distribution) that can be thought of taking place.

But in the real world, Read more…

American plutocracy

April 12, 2025 Leave a comment

Now to American plutocracy. As the bottom panel in Figure 3 illustrates, the fall and rise of Republican fortunes mirrors another important U-turn: the fall and rise of US income inequality, measured here in terms of the top 1% share of income. 

Figure 3: In postwar American, the fall and rise of the Republican party mirrors the U-turn of income inequality. The top panel shows the average portion of state legislature seats controlled by Republicans. (The average weights Republican control by each state’s population.) The bottom panel shows the income share of the US top 1%, which fell until 1980 and then rose thereafter. It seems that the Republican party’s fortunes mirror those of the richest Americans. The correlation between the two time series is 0.81. 

read more: Partisan Politics and the Road to Plutocracy

The economic fallout of European rearmament

April 10, 2025 3 comments

from C. P. Chandrasekhar 

With US President Donald Trump leaning towards Russia when advocating a stop to the war in Ukraine and making clear that the US will no longer foot the bill to ensure Europe’s security, talk of “Russian expansionism” in Europe has become louder. This has fuelled calls for Europe to rearm itself. However, there is little appetite among the continent’s current rulers for enhanced taxes on the rich to fund the increase. The fallout has been a discussion on the need for Europe to shed its fiscal conservatism, institutionalised in the form of “fiscal rules” capping budgetary deficits and setting public debt ceilings. However, though those rules have been diluted in practice, there is strong opposition to rethinking the conservative macroeconomic policy framework that a Europe led by Germany has embraced. If borrowing is not an option, defence will have to be financed, it is argued, by diverting funds from welfare spending, accelerating the process of dismantling Europe’s famed “welfare state.” 

Read more…

Ignoring patent monopolies: free trade retaliation against Trump

April 8, 2025 1 comment

from Dean Baker

Most forms of retaliation that countries are planning in response to Donald Trump’s tariff-fest involved higher tariffs and import restrictions. These measures may hurt the US economy, but they will also hurt the country imposing them. The logic is that the measures will be crafted so that the pain in the US will be greater than the pain the other country experiences.

That will likely prove correct, but the EU, Canada, and other newly created enemies can go one better. They can pursue retaliatory measures that will badly hurt the United States while actually helping their own economies. Specifically, they can announce a policy of no longer respecting US patent and copyright monopolies for as long as Donald Trump is playing his silly tariff game.

There is serious money at stake here. Last year the United States received almost $150 billion in royalties and licensing fees. That’s more than 5 percent of all after-tax corporate profits.

And this is just in straight fees. Read more…

Who’s afraid of Trump’s tariffs?

April 5, 2025 1 comment

from C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The weaponization of tariffs by US President Donald Trump has clearly generated fear and loathing across the world. These threats are not only purely performative; nor are they just transactional in nature. The logic of these tariff threats in most cases is questionable at best, and the declared aims are varied: from demanding “parity” of tariffs with trading partners no matter what their level of development, to seeing any bilateral trade deficits with other countries as inherently problematic, to viewing threats of tariffs as a measure to force other policy changes on the part of the trading partner. The latest announcement of tariffs of 25 per cent on any country that buys Venezuelan oil is just the most recent egregious example.

However, despite the variety of justifications and the frequent and dizzying reversals of trade policy that have already become a hallmark of Trump II, it is clear that these threats cannot be discounted and must be taken seriously. How the rest of the world responds to these is therefore critically important. Read more…

Patents and the Abundance Agenda

April 2, 2025 Leave a comment

from Dean Baker

I haven’t read Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson’s new book Abundance, but everyone I know seems to be talking about it. Therefore, I thought I would throw in my two cents, not on the book for obvious reasons, but on what a serious Abundance Agenda (AA) should look like. Specifically, I want to talk about patents and how reform of the rules on intellectual property really needs to be at the center of a serious AA.

The key point that most people in policy debates seem determined to ignore is that there is a huge amount of money at stake with patent monopolies and their cousin, copyrights. My calculations indicate that these monopolies raise the cost of the protected items by more than $1 trillion a year. This comes to around $7,500 per household.

In the case of prescriptions drugs alone, these protections likely increase the costs by more than $500 billion a year. Imagine we lived in a world where nearly all drugs were cheap. Drugs are rarely expensive to manufacture or distribute. Without patent monopolies, drugs would be selling as cheap generics, costing $10 or $20 a prescription, and often less. No one would have to set up GoFundMe pages to cover the cost of a lifesaving drug. Read more…

Trump — uncertainty and chaos

March 31, 2025 3 comments

from Lars Syll

If you're having trouble keeping up with the news in the wake of Trump's  chaos––I hear you. Let's break down some news from recent days together.🧵Uncertainty and chaos are the final factors in Trump’s operation. The winners, broadly, will be financial speculators with fast fingers and (especially) inside knowledge. Those in position to move quickly in and out of stocks, bonds and real estate—and perhaps even in and out of the dollar from a base in crypto—could be the biggest winners. The apex financial and tech predators, already at Trump’s feeding trough, could end up in control of the whole economy. Which may be their goal. Well, no surprise—it’s an oligarch’s world, is it not?

And what do the oligarchs want? Like all feudal lords, they want untrammeled power and insecure, obedient serfs—and for this, the vast social services operation that is the US federal government must be cut back, along with the professional classes who form the modern core of the Democratic Party. The words of Andrew Mellon (as recalled by Herbert Hoover) come to mind: “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the system.… enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.” The problem the oligarchs face, and possibly do not understand, is that they cannot do this, any more now than then, without bringing the economy to ruin—from which recovery will be possible only with the competent government they are now working to destroy.

James K. Galbraith

Trump 2.0: An inflection point for global capitalism?

March 30, 2025 1 comment

from C. P. Chandrasekhar

If the first month of Donald Trump’s second stint as President of the United States is indicative, then it appears that global capitalism with the US as hegemon is in the process of an endogenously triggered process of restructuring. Among the many early signals from the Trump administration to switch US policy at home and abroad, five initiatives stand out in the economic sphere.

First is the turn to higher import tariffs, on grounds varying from bringing back American production and accelerating the growth of output and employment to weaponising tariffs to achieve national security goals.

The second is the brazen facilitation of the capture of the state by big business. Read more…

The pretence-of-knowledge syndrome

March 26, 2025 1 comment

from Lars Syll

What does concern me about my discipline, however, is that its current core — by which I mainly mean the so-called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach — has become so mesmerized with its own internal logic that it has begun to confuse the precision it has achieved about its own world with the precision that it has about the real one …

The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium strategy is so attractive, and even plain addictive, because it allows one to generate impulse responses that can be fully described in terms of seemingly scientific statements. The model is an irresistible snake-charmer … So we are left with the tension between a type of answer to which we aspire but that has limited connection with reality (the core) and more sensible but incomplete answers (the periphery) …

My point is that by some strange herding process the core of macroeconomics seems to transform things that may have been useful modeling short-cuts into a part of a new and artificial “reality,” and now suddenly everyone uses the same language, which in the next iteration gets confused with, and eventually replaces, reality.

Ricardo J. Caballero

Caballero’s article emphasizes that the future is inherently uncertain, particularly when it comes to forecasting and implementing economic policies. No amount of statistical analysis, econometrics, decision theory, or game theory can fully overcome this fundamental reality. Read more…

The Trump dream of balanced trade

March 23, 2025 3 comments

from Dean Baker

Donald Trump constantly complains about our trade deficit, promising us the good life of balanced trade. I’m not sure exactly how he sees ending our trade deficit as the key to prosperity, but let’s play the game. What does the world look like if Trump, through his tariffs, threats, and promises, gets the trade deficit down to zero?

According to Trumpian rhetoric, the big prize is that we would get manufacturing jobs back. These are supposed to be good paying jobs that allow workers to enjoy a decent middle-class standard of living.

Let’s start by asking how many manufacturing jobs we can expect to get back in Donald Trump’s dream world? Our trade deficit last year was $906 billion, a bit more than 3.0 percent of GDP. This is down considerably from a peak of almost 6.0 percent of GDP in the first decade of this century, but still far from zero.

So, if we want to get it to zero, we have to decrease our imports and increase our exports by a total of $906 billion. We do export a lot of things other than manufactured goods. For example, last year we exported more than $165 billion worth of agricultural products. We also export services. Last year, our businesses collected more than $186 billion for exporting financial services, the full tab on service exports was $1,121 billion.

We could reasonably expect that a move to balanced trade would involve an increase in both agricultural exports and exports of services,  but let’s assume that the full adjustment comes through increased exports, or decreased imports, of manufactured goods. Last year our gross output of manufactured goods was $7,210 billion. This means that if we balanced trade by increased production of manufactured goods, we would need to increase output by 12.6 percent. Read more…

American Monarchy

March 20, 2025 1 comment

from Peter Radford

Let’s get to the heart of the situation: the American government is not functioning as a liberal democracy. That much is clear. There is no oversight, no communication, and no process. It is all diktat and tyranny. It is neither liberal in that it now supports tyrants around the world.  Nor democratic in that its constitutional system is being ignored by those in power.

Why do we know this?

Domestically, members of Congress, those on whom the Constitution bestows the power of the purse and the creation of policy, have no clue what is going on. Massive decisions are being made daily by a swat team of childish techno-bros under the direction of Elon Musk. So distant from active control is Congress that members now have to get updates from Musk himself by giving him a call. Note: they do not get updates from the White House. They have to go directly to Musk.

Even if members of Congress fully support the eradication of various departments of government, it is their responsibility, not Musk’s, to do the deed. Cutting spending is a Congressional role. Not some outsider’s. And the apparent total lack of communication is not just embarrassing, it is a perversion of the American system. The pathetic Josh Hawley apparently reminded Musk that none of the changes were permanent without Congressional assent. And then he did nothing. Not a thing. Grumbling, then caving, is the modus operandi of our Republican Senators.

It is, in short, a constitutional revolution. Trump’s advocacy and embrace of the so-called “unitary executive” — in our terms an unchecked monarchy — has been accepted without even a whisper of opposition by Congress. Read more…

The pretence-of-knowledge syndrome

March 12, 2025 1 comment

from Lars Syll

What does concern me about my discipline, however, is that its current core — by which I mainly mean the so-called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach — has become so mesmerized with its own internal logic that it has begun to confuse the precision it has achieved about its own world with the precision that it has about the real one …

The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium strategy is so attractive, and even plain addictive, because it allows one to generate impulse responses that can be fully described in terms of seemingly scientific statements. The model is an irresistible snake-charmer … So we are left with the tension between a type of answer to which we aspire but that has limited connection with reality (the core) and more sensible but incomplete answers (the periphery) …

My point is that by some strange herding process the core of macroeconomics seems to transform things that may have been useful modeling short-cuts into a part of a new and artificial “reality,” and now suddenly everyone uses the same language, which in the next iteration gets confused with, and eventually replaces, reality.

Ricardo J. Caballero

Caballero’s article emphasizes that the future is inherently uncertain, particularly when it comes to forecasting and implementing economic policies. No amount of statistical analysis, econometrics, decision theory, or game theory can fully overcome this fundamental reality. Read more…

Crypto and Donald Trump’s strategic baseball card reserve

March 9, 2025 Leave a comment

from Dean Baker

The Republicans and Donald Trump seem set on establishing a strategic crypto reserve. They are claiming this will somehow be an important source of economic security for the country. It’s clear that establishing the reserve will be an important way to give tens of billions of dollars to Donald Trump’s campaign contributors, but it is much harder to see how it will provide any economic security to the country.

To better understand the logic of a strategic crypto reserve, it is useful to consider a strategic baseball card reserve. Instead of the U.S. government investing $100 billion in crypto, imagine Donald Trump announced plans to put $100 billion into a strategic baseball card reserve.

Now just to quell those skeptics saying that the entire stock of baseball cards is not worth $100 billion, you’re ignoring the price of effect of the government committing itself to spend $100 billion on baseball cards. If the government wants to spend $100 billion on baseball cards, you can be sure that the price of many cards will rise astronomically so that there will be supply to meet the demand.

But beyond the question of how much we can pay for baseball cards, it is worth asking what it would mean if we actually had a $100 billion strategic baseball card reserve (SBCR)? This can tell us what we can expect from having a large strategic crypto reserve. Read more…

How economists forgot the real world

March 8, 2025 4 comments

from Lars Syll

Ricardo's Dream by Nat Dyer | WaterstonesThe book’s argument is that in straining to peer through the chaos and confusion of the world to the underlying mechanisms, too much economic thinking, both in Ricardo’s day and ours, mistook a small, unrepresentative sample as the whole picture. This has distorted the vision of generations. If your scientific ideal is a simple, logical model, there is a tendency to focus on those parts of reality that are more regular or can be easily counted. The awkward aspects more difficult to capture in formal laws or mathematics the fact that humans are a diverse group of emotional and social primates, for example, or the natural, political, and legal contexts in which markets are born and function— tend to get filtered out, set apart, and eventually forgotten. One physicist-turned-financial modeller, Emanuel Derman, has compared the process of creating a model to forcing the ugly sisters’ feet into Cinderella’s glass slipper by cutting off the toes or heel (as in early versions of the tale). Whatever does not make it into the elegant slipper often disappears in the mind’s eye and some begin to say it never existed at all …

The main cost, I want to convince you, is that the questions seeming being studied are quietly replaced with different, easier, less relevant ones.

Dyer’s brilliant book ought to be on every economist’s reading list.

Just like Robert Heilbroner in his The Worldly Philosophers, Dyer writes with a clarity that makes even the weightiest economic ideas feel approachable. His style—elegant yet conversational, analytical yet humanistic—reminds us all that writing is not just a means of communication but a way of thinking, a process of discovery. Read more…

My Father’s Disgust

March 5, 2025 2 comments

from Peter Radford

I am in a grim and introspective mood this morning.  I have been reflecting on how my father might react to where we are.  He was one of those who fought against fascism.    His life was shortened by being wounded during that fight.  As a result, I never knew him as a healthy person.  What, I wonder, would he make of America’s turn away from democracy and towards autocracy?  What would he make of the pillaging of Ukraine’s resources as payment for so-called “aid” given by America in the past few years?  What would he make of the sudden alliance between America and Russia?  And what, most of all, would he make of the abandonment of the essence of the alliances forged back then and by people like him on the front lines?   At the very least he would, I think, feel betrayed.  Perplexed, dismayed, but above all betrayed.

History has been overturned.  Surrender is presented to us as victory.  Our very language is being distorted to hide the lies and intention of those in charge. Read more…