Philippe Aghion — nothing but a polished neoliberal
from Lars Syll

Although Philippe Aghion’s work presents itself as a refined and progressive departure from crude neoliberalism, a closer examination reveals a framework that — despite its mathematical sophistication — ultimately reinforces and legitimises a conservative, pro-capitalist economic order. His professed ‘pragmatism’ often serves less as a neutral analytic stance than as an ideological device to preserve existing hierarchies of power.
Aghion’s celebrated concepts — such as ‘appropriate institutions’ and the inverted-U relationship between competition and innovation — cloak political choices in the language of empirical neutrality. In practice, they offer an enduring rationale for policy restraint, perpetually warning that the ‘optimal’ equilibrium has yet to be achieved. This intellectual caution translates into a defence of inaction: a convenient argument against bold redistribution or stronger market regulation. His reluctance toward taxing the wealthy epitomises this logic, invoking speculative fears about stifled innovation while minimising the well-documented harms of entrenched inequality and rentier dominance. Read more…
A consequence of disregarding the distribution of income
from John Komlos
. . . the common wisdom erroneously equates economic growth with rising living standards. However, survey after survey categorically contradicts this assumption: happiness and life satisfaction in the U.S., for instance, has stagnated and even declined relative to the welfare states of Western Europe, but especially compared to Scandinavia and Switzerland (Easterlin, 2004; Helliwell et al., 2024). The growth-at-any-price perspective disregards the decisive problems associated with 19 Economic Thought 12.1: 16-27, 2024 stress, pain, and the distribution of income: economic growth has not benefited the less skilled, those without a college education, or without some skills that are valued in the new knowledge economy (Komlos, 2019b).
Despite 250 years of extraordinary economic growth (and previously unimaginable scientific and technical achievements) since the Industrial Revolution, discontent is now more widespread in the U.S. than ever before with the exception of the years prior to the outbreak of the Civil War. It is amazing how much dissatisfaction a $29 trillion (dual) economy can evidently produce. In 2023 merely 52% of U.S. adults considered themselves ‘thriving’ while the rest were ‘struggling’ (43%) or ‘suffering (4.7%)’ (Gallup, 2022). In other words, the U.S. version of capitalism is amazingly inefficient at producing contentment for some 150 million of its citizens.
In contrast, humanistic economics implies that a kinder and more just capitalism is possible, embedded in a truly democratic society that enables people to live their daily lives with less anxiety, conflict, inequality, insecurity, manipulation, pain, poverty, stress, uncertainty, unemployment, and less fear that their lives could spiral out of control during the next recession. This variant of capitalism would also maximize educational attainment, mental and physical health, intellectual satisfaction, leisure time, dignity, respect, healthy social relationships, and a moral life. Consequently, by disregarding the distribution of income and the stress generated by the economic system, free-market aficionados have led us astray. read more
The Riksbank prize for Joel Mokyr – a practical pespective
The peasants on the not-so-remote Dutch island of Ameland modernized their farming very late. Why this delay? And how does this relate to the ideas of one of this year’s Riksbank prize winners, the convinced economic historian Joel Mokyr? Interestingly, agents of modernization, such as the Ameland (cooperative) dairy factory and the (government) extension on Ameland service, generated per farm but also provided ´actionable knowledge´ as part of the processes of producing dairy and providing agricultural counseling (graph). This totally fits into the Mokyr mold. Even then, humongous investments, a total overhaul of institutions and mentalities, and the better part of a century were needed to change peasant farms into modern high-productivity farms. In the process, the number of farms declined by over 90%. Mokyr is right when he stresses that a relentless focus on and measurement of the nature of the ´nuts and bolts´ (sometimes even literally), in combination with an equally relentless focus on using this information, is crucial. This, however, can take time. Lots of time. The dissemination of culture, techniques, and ideas is a slow network process. Mokyr is totally right about that, too. But it´s hard to understand this as a ´market´, as Mokyr does. It´s more like playing a game. Learning the rules of this game and setting up the board is a difficult, time-consuming process that requires people to act in tandem.

The ‘Nobel Prize’ in economics — a critical perspective
from Lars Syll
Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt won the 2025 ‘Nobel Prize’ in economics for their work on how innovation and the forces of creative destruction can drive economic growth, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said today.
People have, throughout all times, tried to form an understanding of the economic contexts using economic theories. These theories both shape and are part of society and its history.
In the past century, the development of economic theories has taken place at an increasingly rapid pace. Over the last fifty years, these theories have become more mathematical and abstract in their nature. This particularly applies to the dominant economic wisdom, the so-called mainstream economic theory.
The development in this direction has gone so far that even many economists themselves claim that the subject has lost touch with reality and has become a new kind of scholasticism that mostly amounts to nonsense, disconnected from real people’s thoughts and actions. Instead of mathematics and reality-detached assumptions about people as self-interested and utility-maximising machines, there is a call for increased pluralism and open-mindedness with room for critical reflection, where different theories are allowed to compete and not predefined by the economic establishment. Read more…
Weekend read: Democracy and Economics
from Peter Radford
Demos kratia
People power.
This is about economics and its role in undermining democracy.
Let’s begin with Martin Wolf.
He gives us, in this morning’s Financial Times, an excellent and succinct overview of Trump’s inevitable failure to deliver new manufacturing jobs. He wheels out all sorts of technocratic, and thus highly sensible, arguments based on economic reasoning in order to prove his point. Then, towards the end he shifts to politics. Right wing populism, he suggests, is a consequence of the divergence in outcomes that less educated men and the technocratic overclass have experienced during this era of post-industrialization of the American economy. Whereas employment in manufacturing was once an avenue upwards in status, now it is much diminished and a whole section of society is blocked from improvement.
So far so good. There is nothing remarkable in this narrative. It is well worn.
There are, however two very notable aspects I want to daw your attention to,
First, yes, the argument is well worn. So why has nothing been done? Why has an entire section of society been cut out of the aspiration that drives the American myth? This, surely, is an epic political failure.
Second, Read more…
Are the new national accounts guidelines any good? 5. The (not so) informal economy
Summary: the formal-informal dichotomy is not fit to distinguish economic activities in a coherent way and has to be replaced by a scheme that shows out how rules guiding and embedding market and non-market transactions are set and enforced
The new guidelines state that we have to measure the ´informal economy´. Of course. The informal economy is not trivial. According to the UN, globally, 2 billion people are active in the informal economy. As the national accounts measure the money economy, and since the large majority of these activities are undertaken for financial gain, the 2 billion people and their output, input, and income and expenditure must, by accounting necessity, be included in the accounts. Otherwise, the quadruple accounting system of the national accounts (your expenditure is my income) would have a 2 billion person accounting hole.
But I have problems with the chapter on the informal economy in the new guidelines. It does not sparkle. It´s unlike the chapters on households and net and gross production, pretty dull. More importantly, it has an ´unfinished business´ feel about it. Why?
First, some clarifications.
- The informal economy is distinct from the illegal economy. Even when the production and marketing of cocaine might take place in an informal setting, many informal activities are entirely legal.
- It´s also not the ´black economy´. Many informal economy activities, such as street vending, are not only legal but also highly visible and organized.
So, why the uneasiness?
Read more…Reality — a virulent virus afflicting mainstream economics
from Lars Syll
An examination of the contributions of famous mainstream economists reveals no clear indication that their work produces rigorous and successful explanations or predictions of real-world phenomena. The situation in physics is markedly different. There, the application of mathematics has often yielded both rigorous and successful explanations and predictions. Of course, the material world is fundamentally different from the social world.
Today, mainstream economic theory remains engaged in a form of storytelling, whereby theorists create mathematical analogue models of their target system, typically conceived as the real economy. This activity of mathematical modelling is considered both useful and essential. Because fully-fledged experiments at a societal scale are generally prohibitively expensive, ethically indefensible, or unmanageable, economic theorists must substitute experimentation with an alternative. The predominant strategy for understanding and explaining relations between different entities in the real economy is to construct mathematical models and simulate events within these ‘analogue-economy models,’ rather than engineer outcomes in actual economies.
Such formalistic, mathematical-deductive exercises can be intellectually impressive and seductive. However, in the realm of science, simply making claims about a model while losing sight of empirical reality ought to be considered of little value. Read more…
Patent monopolies are a main reason science is broken: Why can’t we talk about them?
from Dean Baker
Earlier this week The New York Times ran a big think piece by The New Atlantis editor Ari Schulman, on whether “science is broken,” and whether NIH director Jay Bhattacharya can fix it. Incredibly, the word “patents” did not appear once.
That is incredibly bizarre. The high prices for drugs and other innovations that patent monopolies allow companies to charge are the basis for most of the corruption we see in health science. This is the main reason that medical journals cannot trust the articles submitted accurately reflect research done by the authors.
The point is simple and straightforward. As a result of patent monopolies, there is an enormous amount of money at stake in biomedical research, unlike research in Astronomy or English Literature. While there are always instances of academics plagiarizing the work of others, or inaccurately representing sources and data, the problems in other fields are nowhere near as large as is the case with biomedical research.
The consequences for public health of the perverse incentives created by patent monopolies are very real. Being able to charge prices that are ten times, or even a hundred times, the free market price gives drug companies enormous incentive to misrepresent the safety and effectiveness of their drugs. We saw this most clearly with the opioid crisis, but the corruption issue arises all the time. Read more…
Utility theory — explaining everything and nothing
from Lars Syll
The methodological structure of mainstream economics often relies on axioms and theorems that are tautological by design, which severely limits their informational content. A prime example is modern expected utility theory.
Its core weakness lies in the minimal constraints placed on individual preferences; this extreme flexibility allows the theory to be reconciled with virtually any observed behaviour. A theory that cannot be falsified by empirical evidence, however, ceases to function as a scientific tool.
While its malleability makes it useful for abstract thought experiments, it comes at the cost of empirical relevance. In this way, utility theory has been transformed into a pervasive but empty “theory of everything.” Like Gary Becker’s expansive application of economic principles, such frameworks offer the illusion of explanatory power while actually explaining nothing. Read more…
Are the new national accounts guidelines any good? 4. Households.
Recently, new national accounts guidelines have been published. The national accounts distinguish, within states, several sectors: the Government, Non-financial companies, Financial companies, Non-profit institutes Serving Households (from churches and commons to your local amateur soccer club) and Households. Today: What do the new 2025 guidelines state about Households? Do they advise estimating inequality? Do they pay attention to households as producers of market and non-market goods and services? Are there important conceptual issues to consider? These and some related issues will be discussed below.

Why the bursting of the AI bubble would be good for the economy
from Dean Baker
It has become common in recent months for people in the business press to note both that AI stocks seem to be in a bubble and that this bubble is driving the economy. In many ways this situation looks similar to the late 1990s tech bubble.
At that time, price-to-earnings ratios in the stock market were roughly the same as they are today. The soaring market then was also driving the economy, as people were consuming based on their new bubble-generated wealth. Also, the insane valuations of many new Internet companies was leading to an investment boom in the tech sector.
When the bubble finally burst, we got the 2001 recession. While this downturn was mild from a GDP perspective, the story was much worse if we focus on the labor market. We did not get back the jobs lost in the recession for four full years. At the time, it was the longest period without job growth since the Great Depression.
Anyhow, the immediate impact of the collapse of the AI bubble will undoubtedly be negative, but there are reasons to still think it would be good for the economy and for most workers. This is best demonstrated by a recent analysis from Moody’s which shows that all the real spending growth over the last year has come from the top quintile of the income distribution. Everyone else has been just treading water. Read more…
Econometrics — the hope that never came true
from Lars Syll
In 1958, with the publication of the twenty-fifth volume of Econometrica, Trygve Haavelmo assessed the role of econometrics in advancing economics. While he praised its ‘repair work’ and ‘clearing-up work,’ he also found reason for despair:
We have found certain general principles which would seem to make good sense. Essentially, these principles are based on the reasonable idea that, if an economic model is in fact “correct” or “true,” we can say something a priori about the way in which the data emerging from it must behave. We can say something, a priori, about whether it is theoretically possible to estimate the parameters involved. And we can decide, a priori, what the proper estimation procedure should be … But the concrete results of these efforts have often been a seemingly lower degree of accuracy of the would-be economic laws (i.e., larger residuals), or coefficients that seem a priori less reasonable than those obtained by using cruder or clearly inconsistent methods.
There is the possibility that the more stringent methods we have been striving to develop have actually opened our eyes to recognize a plain fact: viz., that the “laws” of economics are not very accurate in the sense of a close fit, and that we have been living in a dream-world of large but somewhat superficial or spurious correlations.
Ragnar Frisch, another founding father of modern probabilistic econometrics, likewise expressed doubts about its practical applicability: Read more…
Trump is raising unemployment: He wants a new scorekeeper
from Dean Baker
When a football team keeps losing, the cry usually goes out for a new coach, or at least a new quarterback. Alternatively, there is the Trump route: Get a new scorekeeper.
That is apparently the story, with Trump reportedly looking to overhaul the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the statistical agency that tells us how many jobs we create each month. It also tells us the unemployment rate and the inflation rate.
Trump’s import taxes (tariffs), mass deportations, and cuts to healthcare and other government programs have whacked the economy with a sledgehammer. As a result, these numbers have looked very bad in recent months. Rather than trying to address the economic problems he created, Trump is looking to ransack BLS and install lying hacks who will tell us the economy is GREAT!
We’ll probably get the specific plans this week, but Trump already fired his first shot in this battle in his war against reality last month. He fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after a bad jobs report for July, absurdly claiming that she had somehow rigged the numbers to make him look bad. Trump’s economic team then rushed in to lie about the lie and claim Trump was concerned about inaccuracy, not rigging.
The Road Not Taken
from Lars Syll
Had the whole discipline catastrophically misunderstood
Keynes’ deeply revolutionary ideas?
We heterodox economists, who have chosen the road less travelled, are acutely aware of its costs: fewer opportunities for ample research funding or positions at prestigious institutions. Yet, I suspect few of us truly regret our choice. One does not bargain with one’s conscience. No amount of money or prestige can replace the profound satisfaction of looking in the mirror and liking the person you see.
My friend, the late Axel Leijonhufvud (1933–2022), was precisely this kind of academic — an economist who dared to take that less-travelled road.
The orthodox Keynesianism of the time did have a theoretical explanation for recessions and depressions. Proponents saw the economy as a self-regulating machine in which individual decisions typically lead to a situation of full employment and healthy growth. The primary reason for periods of recession and depression was because wages did not fall quickly enough. If wages could fall rapidly and extensively enough, then the economy would absorb the unemployed. Orthodox Keynesians also took Keynes’ approach to monetary economics to be similar to the classical economists.
Leijonhufvud’s “Keynesian Economics and the Economics of Keynes” exploded onto the academic stage the following year; no mean feat for an economics book that did not contain a single equation. The book took no prisoners and aimed squarely at the prevailing metaphor about the self-regulating economy and the economics of the orthodoxy. He forcefully argued that the free movement of wages and prices can sometimes be destabilizing and could move the economy away from full employment.
Leijonhufvud got something entirely different from reading the General Theory. The more he looked at his footnotes, originally written in puzzlement at the disparity between what he took to be the Keynesian message and the orthodox Keynesianism of his time, the more confident he felt. The implications were amazing. Had the whole discipline catastrophically misunderstood Keynes’ deeply revolutionary ideas? Was the dominant economics paradigm deeply flawed and a fatally wrong turn in macroeconomic thinking? And if this was the case, what was Keynes actually proposing?
The many publications of Lisa Cook, economic historian.
Chris Brunet (male, white), who advertises himself as an ´independent investigative journalist´, did an embarrassingly bad job investigating the number of publications of Lisa Cook (member of the board of the US central bank, female, black). The proverbial ´1 minute on the internet´ would have saved him the embarrassment. Based on distinctly incomplete data, he attempts, using Twitter, to tarnish Mrs. Cook’s reputation. He uses phrases like ´likely´ and states facts without providing evidence. Which an investigative journalist should, ´likely´, not do. Also, the fact that she´s an economic historian instead of an economist is, contrary to the insinuation of mr. Brunet, a plus.
The publications of mrs. Cook are listed here. While the documentation of mr. Brunet lists 7 publications, I counted 30. Mr. Brunet has to explain the difference or be silent. Aside: in my country (the Netherlands) and partly because economic historians often publish alone, they tend to have relatively few publications compared with other sciences. I did not check this for the USA. But mr. Brunet should. I did not read any of the publications, so I can´t say anything about the quality. However, what mr. Brunet should have done is not counting publications and using a flawed source, but reading them. That´s what it takes to be a genuine investigative journalist who is passionate about science. Quality matters. Once upon a time, a Nobel prize was awarded for a 2,5-pager (Watson and Crick, DNA (oops, authors should have been Francis Crick, Rosalind Franklin, James Watson and Maurice Wilkins)! When he has read them, we might continue this conversation.
Are the new national accounts guidelines any good? 3 – valuing resource depletion
In 1921, Wesley Clair Mitchell, Wilford Isbell King and Frederick R. Macaulay published the landmark national accounts study Income in the United States: Its Amount and Distribution, 1909-1919. It´s a high-quality publication, but they mention some drawbacks. One of these:
- The depletion of natural resources is not included as a ´minus´ in their production estimates
The present national accounts, as a rule, also do not do this. Which is still a drawback. How do the new guidelines, one hundred years after Mitchell e.a., treat the depletion of natural resources (paragraphs 7.296-7.298)?
The good news is that the depletion of natural resources is, for the first time, systematically included in the accounts. The bad news is that the wrong prices are used to value depletion.

What MMT really is about
from Lars Syll
MMT is fundamentally a reaction to the way money is described in mainstream economic theory, where money is seen as something that people save by depositing it in banks, and which banks in turn can lend out by creating credit. Thus, the money creation by banks presupposes that private individuals save. But that idea is completely wrong; that is not how money works. What MMT highlights is that money is created ‘ex nihilo’ (out of nothing). The bank presses a button and creates a loan, thereby also creating new money.
Few issues in politics and economics are discussed more today — and understood less — than the national debt. Read more…
MAGA 2.0: Making China Great Again
from Dean Baker
In Donald Trump’s make-believe world, prices are falling, the economy is booming, he is bringing peace all around the world, and gas costs less than $2.00 a gallon. But here in the real world, inflation is increasing, the economy is stalling, wars are continuing, and gas costs more than $3.00 a gallon.
Ordinarily, we shouldn’t be bothered too much by the dreams of a 79-year-old suffering from dementia, but we have little choice but to bothered when that person is the president of the United States. Trump’s unreality is interfering with the reality for the rest of us in a very big way.
One way his hallucinations matter in a big way is his failure to come to grips with the fact that China is now the world’s dominate economy. By the end of this decade, the I.M.F. projects it to be nearly 50 percent larger than the US economy.

Are the new 2025 national accounts guidelines any good? Part 2. National accounts are political accounts.
One of the great accomplishments of non-university macroeconomics is the establishment of a coherent and consistent set of macroeconomic accounts. These are based on a published and consistent set of concepts and definitions established by cooperating experts in the field. Many sciences have comparable foundational documents. Psychiatrists and psychologists have their Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5, DSM-6 seems to be complete but is not yet published). Chemists have their ´periodic table´. Geologists have their AusIMM manual. And non-university macroeconomists have the national accounts guidelines as well as other guidelines. These guidelines are internal and internationally consistent and coherent.
There is the possibility that the more stringent methods we have been striving to develop have actually opened our eyes to recognize a plain fact: viz., that the “laws” of economics are not very accurate in the sense of a close fit, and that we have been living in a dream-world of large but somewhat superficial or spurious correlations.































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