Published December 4-10, 2024
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The New Big
In the ever-evolving landscape of digital marketing, we stand on the cusp of a new era—one that promises to revolutionise how brands interact with customers and drive sustainable growth. This new frontier is what I call “Big Martech,” a paradigm shift that will redefine the boundaries of marketing technology and usher in unprecedented opportunities for businesses to thrive in the digital age.
For years, we’ve witnessed the relentless rise of Big Adtech, fuelled by an insatiable appetite for customer acquisition. Marketers have poured billions into digital advertising, chasing new customers with increasing desperation as acquisition costs soar and returns diminish. This arms race has led to what I term “AdWaste”—the billions squandered on ineffective acquisition and reacquisition campaigns.
But the tide is turning. As businesses grapple with rising costs, privacy concerns, and the imperative for sustainable growth, a new approach is emerging. Big Martech represents a fundamental shift from the acquisition-centric model to one focused on retention, engagement, and maximising customer lifetime value. It’s a holistic reimagining of how we use technology to build lasting customer relationships and drive profitable growth.
At its core, Big Martech is about harnessing the power of advanced technologies—AI, machine learning, data analytics—to create a unified marketing ecosystem. It’s about breaking down silos between adtech and martech, between acquisition and retention, to create a seamless, personalised customer experience across all touchpoints. This new era isn’t just about marginal improvements or adding features; it’s about fundamentally rethinking how Martech works to create a cohesive experience across channels and touchpoints.
Imagine a world where AI-powered systems anticipate customer needs, where every interaction is an opportunity for deeper engagement, and where marketing drives not just growth, but sustainable profitability. In this world, traditional barriers between marketing channels and customer engagement tools dissolve. Martech must evolve from being a collection of isolated tools to becoming an integrated and intelligence platform that empowers brands to anticipate customer needs, create dynamic experiences, and maximise engagement and retention.
But Big Martech is more than just technology. It’s a new way of thinking about marketing—one that prioritises long-term value over short-term gains, that sees customers as partners rather than targets. It’s about creating what I call a “profipoly”—a monopoly on profits within an industry, achieved through superior customer understanding and engagement.
The stakes are high. Those who successfully navigate this transition stand to gain a significant competitive advantage, building customer loyalty moats that are difficult to breach. Those who cling to old models risk obsolescence as their profits disappear. As marketers face challenges in building brand loyalty and navigating the complexities of an evolving digital landscape, Big Martech represents the next step in crafting more meaningful and profitable customer interactions.
The future of marketing is here. It’s time to think big—the right Big. It’s time for Big Adtech to move over. It’s time for Big Martech!
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Big Adtech
I asked Claude and ChatGPT to chronicle the rise of Big Adtech.
As we stand at the threshold of the Big Martech era, it’s crucial to understand how we got here. The past two decades have been dominated by the meteoric rise of Big Adtech, a phenomenon that reshaped the marketing landscape. This ascent was driven by several interconnected factors:
- The Digital Explosion and Data Boom
The proliferation of digital platforms and devices created an unprecedented wealth of consumer data. Suddenly, marketers had access to granular insights about user behaviour, preferences, and demographics. This data goldmine, coupled with the shift of audience attention to digital channels, set the stage for targeted advertising at a scale never before possible.
Social media platforms, search engines, and digital content sites became treasure troves of user data. As billions flocked to these platforms, they inadvertently created detailed profiles of their lives, interests, and social connections. The rise of cookies, tracking pixels, and data-collection technologies enabled advertisers to capture and analyse vast amounts of consumer data, providing deep insights into consumer behaviour, preferences, and intent.
- The Allure of Measurability and Real-Time Optimisation
Unlike traditional advertising channels, digital ads offered something revolutionary: real-time measurability. Click-through rates, conversion tracking, and attribution models provided marketers with immediate feedback on their campaigns’ performance. This data-driven approach appealed to businesses seeking quantifiable returns on their marketing investments.
Moreover, programmatic advertising introduced the concept of real-time bidding, allowing advertisers to target specific users with personalised ads in milliseconds. This level of precision and speed was intoxicating, promising a new era of hyper-efficient advertising.
- Easy Availability of Capital and the Growth-at-All-Costs Mentality
The early 2000s and 2010s saw an influx of venture capital into the digital advertising ecosystem and B2C/D2C startups. This growth-at-all-costs mentality, combined with cheap capital, led to massive investments in digital advertising. Entrepreneurs and technologists launched a myriad of adtech startups, each promising innovative solutions for brands looking to target consumers more effectively.
The ability to quickly scale user bases through targeted ads became a key metric for startup success, further fueling the adtech boom. This mentality wasn’t limited to startups. Established companies, fearing disruption and driven by FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), poured increasing portions of their marketing budgets into digital channels. The result was an arms race of customer acquisition, with brands competing fiercely for digital attention.
- The Ecosystem Effect: Platforms, Agencies, and Adtech Vendors
As digital advertising grew, so did the ecosystem around it. Ad platforms like Google and Facebook built sophisticated tools for advertisers. Digital agencies specialised in managing complex ad campaigns. A new breed of adtech vendors emerged, offering solutions for every aspect of digital advertising, from data management platforms to demand-side platforms.
This burgeoning ecosystem created a self-reinforcing cycle. More ad spend led to more sophisticated tools, which in turn encouraged even greater ad spend. The result was a complex, interconnected adtech landscape that became increasingly indispensable to marketers.
- The Emergence of Walled Gardens
The rise of walled gardens—closed ecosystems where large platforms like Google, Facebook, and Amazon control both user data and ad inventory—significantly shaped the trajectory of Big Adtech. These platforms developed proprietary technologies to collect user data within their ecosystems, offering marketers a treasure trove of consumer insights. The promise of scale and precision within these walled gardens led brands to pour increasing amounts of their ad spend into these platforms, further strengthening their dominance.
- Algorithmic Advancements and Automation
Advancements in machine learning and artificial intelligence transformed how advertising campaigns were designed and executed. Automated algorithms enabled advertisers to optimise campaigns based on real-time performance metrics, enhancing targeting accuracy and maximising ROI. This shift towards automation reduced human intervention and errors, making digital advertising more efficient and scalable.
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The culmination of these factors led to the dominance of Big Adtech. By the late 2010s, digital advertising had become the largest advertising medium globally, surpassing traditional channels like television and print. Companies like Google and Facebook emerged as advertising powerhouses, capturing a significant portion of global ad spend.
However, as we enter the 2020s, cracks in the Big Adtech model are beginning to show. Rising privacy concerns, ad fatigue among consumers, and diminishing returns on ad spend are forcing marketers to rethink their strategies. The stage is set for a new paradigm—one that prioritises long-term customer relationships over short-term acquisitions. Enter Big Martech, the next frontier in marketing technology.
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Recent Writings – 1
The Retention Revolution: A Nayi Disha for Marketing: “Marketing needs a Nayi Disha moment – a movement towards a fundamental shift in priorities. Brands must pivot from acquisition to retention, from “one and done” to multi-monetisation, from focusing on new customers to nurturing existing ones, from profit killers to profit creators, from high Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC) to high Lifetime Value (LTV), from AdWaste to brand profits, from being profitless to building a profipoly (profits monopoly). Consider the potential impact: by 2025, half of the projected $700 billion annual digital advertising spend will be wasted. That’s $350 billion – and climbing – every year that brands could reallocate to customer retention, boosting profits, and sparking innovation. This shift could transfer trillions of dollars in value from BigTech to brands – a seismic change in the business landscape. While no single company or individual can drive this change alone, raising awareness of alternatives and sharing success stories can help make this new future a reality.” [Also see Part 4 of the essay which has charts showing the rise of adtech.]
I added: “Together, Agentic AI, AMP for Email, and the Progency will address the three pressing problems which have plagued retention through the years: the “Not for Me” problem where brands fail to anticipate intent due to insufficient data, the “No Hotline” problem, where brands struggle to influence actions because of attention recession, and the “Not by Product alone” problem, where the lack of intelligent services hinders the full utilisation and post-purchase customisation of the martech SaaS platform. Collectively, they will lay the foundation for the shift from retention marketing to retention re-engineering… The magic formula for success and creating a profipoly is elegantly simple: (Lo CAC + Hi LTV)n. With every additional data point from customers, the platform becomes stronger. The AI layer is fine-tuned to bring a new level of customer understanding, personalisation, and adtech and martech efficiency. Enhanced RoI will result in increased revenues and profits, generating free cash flows to invest in innovation and new products. The Profipoly Playbook is the best moat a business can construct: by draining the oxygen of profits from slower competitors, agile brands can emerge as the dominant players in their respective markets.”
The Coming Fight for Marketing’s Soul: Incumbent Acquis vs Challenger Antis: “As brands were spending more than ever on acquisition, many began to see diminishing returns. This led to a growing realisation: acquiring new customers was becoming not only more expensive but also less sustainable as the sole engine for growth. The “leaky bucket” phenomenon became more apparent – companies were pouring resources into acquiring new customers, only to lose them quickly due to poor retention strategies. I estimate that AdWaste consumes up to half of adtech budgets, driven by wrong or low-value acquisitions and costly re-acquisitions. Moreover, the focus on acquisition often came at the expense of customer experience. Brands found themselves in a perpetual cycle of acquisition and re-acquisition, treating all customers – new and existing – with the same broad-brush approach. This neglect of existing customers not only increased churn rates but also missed opportunities to cultivate brand loyalty and drive organic growth through word-of-mouth referrals. In this context, forward-thinking marketers began to question the dominance of an acquisition-first strategy. The focus has slowly shifted to a more balanced approach, recognising that true business growth could not rely solely on acquisition but also on nurturing and retaining existing customers.”
I added: “The battle between Acquis and Antis marks a pivotal moment in marketing history. For two decades, the Acquis reigned supreme, but their era of unchallenged dominance is coming to an end. As businesses grapple with rising acquisition costs, privacy concerns, and the imperative for sustainable growth, the wisdom of the Antis’ approach becomes undeniable. Their focus on retention, loyalty, and lifetime value, powered by AI and data-driven personalisation, is the future of marketing. The Antis are set to transform marketing from a cost centre to a profit driver, elevating the CMO to a key architect of business growth. As we stand at this crossroads, one thing becomes clear: The old paradigm is fading, and a new one is taking its place. Long live the Antis!”
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Recent Writings – 2
The Coming Age of Anti-Acquisition: “A seismic shift is about to reshape the landscape of marketing. For the past two decades, the relentless pursuit of new customer acquisition has dominated every marketer’s agenda, fueling the rise of digital-first brands and disrupting countless industries. However, this era of unchecked expansion is drawing to a close, heralding the dawn of what I call the “Age of Anti-Acquisition.” While “retention” might seem the natural successor, the term “anti-acquisition” more accurately captures the impending paradigm shift. It represents a direct challenge to the extreme and often destructive focus on acquisition, reacquisition, and even re-reacquisition that has, like a metastasizing cancer, eroded the health and profitability of businesses across sectors… The Age of Anti-Acquisition promises to fundamentally alter the marketing and business landscape, creating new winners and losers. Just as artificial intelligence is ushering in the Intelligence Age, succeeding the industrial, information, and Internet ages, agentic AI and other innovations will revolutionise marketing beyond traditional branding and acquisition strategies.” [Part 4 of the essay discusses the shifts in marketing.]
I added: “The time is now for marketers to reclaim their role as the true architects of business growth. In this new paradigm, CMOs have the opportunity to evolve into Chief Profit Officers, taking ownership of the entire customer lifecycle and directly impacting the bottom line. Those who successfully lead this transformation may well find themselves on the fast track to the CEO’s chair, as businesses recognise the critical role of customer-centric, profit-driven marketing in overall corporate strategy.”
How BEAM and BEAN can Fashion a New Email Era: “The House of Anti-Acquisition represents a paradigm shift in marketing strategy, addressing the unsustainable practices of excessive customer acquisition and AdWaste. This framework aims to transform businesses from profitless entities into ‘profipolies’ – industry leaders in profitability. The core goal is to maximise customer Lifetime Value (LTV) whilst minimising Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC). Built on ten critical tenets, the House comprises three pillars: Better Data (utilising Unistack and Unichannel for a unified customer view, and leveraging a Large Customer Model), Better Customer Experience (enabling in-channel conversions in all push channels, and creating differentiated experiences for the most valuable customers), and Better Personalisation (leveraging AI-powered Co-Marketers and AI Twins). These are supported by three foundations: AI (predictive, generative, and agentic capabilities), Kaizen Progency (continuous improvement via a thin services layer), and redefined Metrics and Leadership (focusing on Earned Growth and evolving the CMO role to focus on profits). This framework challenges the status quo, prioritising retention over acquisition and utilising AI-driven strategies to achieve sustainable, profitable growth in the digital age.”
Also see Building The House Of Anti-Acquisition For Sustainable Profit Growth.
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Builders
I asked Claude and ChatGPT for inputs on builders of past tech revolutions.
Every technological transformation needs its builders—visionary companies and leaders who lay the foundations for new industries and redefine how the world works. From the early days of the Industrial Revolution to the digital age and beyond, certain companies have become synonymous with pioneering new markets, transforming nascent technologies into thriving industries.
The Second Industrial Revolution saw the rise of titans like General Electric, founded by Thomas Edison, which revolutionised electricity and lighting. In the automotive sector, Henry Ford’s Ford Motor Company transformed transportation and manufacturing processes with the introduction of the assembly line, making cars affordable for the masses. General Motors, under the leadership of Alfred P. Sloan, pioneered the concept of consumer choice with multiple brands, creating a diversified automotive landscape. Together, these companies set the stage for the modern auto industry.
The advent of modern telecommunications was spearheaded by Alexander Graham Bell’s Bell Telephone Company, which later became AT&T. The early 20th century brought the dawn of aviation, with the Wright brothers’ Wright Company and William Boeing’s Boeing Airplane Company leading the charge. In consumer goods, Procter & Gamble pioneered modern marketing techniques and product innovation.
The semiconductor industry, which laid the groundwork for virtually every piece of modern technology, was propelled forward by innovators like Texas Instruments, Fairchild Semiconductor, and Intel. Founded by Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore, Intel created the microprocessor, the “brain” of modern computing devices. Fairchild Semiconductor played a foundational role in the development of integrated circuits, with its alumni going on to start major tech companies like AMD and National Semiconductor.
In the realm of personal computing, IBM and Microsoft are the undisputed builders. IBM’s decision to partner with Microsoft and adopt the latter’s operating system, MS-DOS, transformed the PC into a global phenomenon. Microsoft’s Windows operating system and software ecosystem turned computers from niche products into everyday essentials. Apple, with its innovative Macintosh and later the iPhone, redefined consumer computing and shaped the mobile era.
Moving into the Internet age, the emergence of Netscape, with its Navigator web browser, helped democratize access to the World Wide Web. Companies like Sun Microsystems revolutionized server technology and web infrastructure, while Cisco provided the backbone of the Internet with its networking equipment. Google followed in their footsteps, indexing the burgeoning web and creating a powerful platform for search, advertisement, and cloud computing.
In the early 2000s, Amazon revolutionized the e-commerce landscape and later the cloud computing industry with Amazon Web Services (AWS), laying the foundation for the cloud-driven, on-demand technology environment we live in today. Meanwhile, Facebook transformed the way people connect and created a new social media ecosystem, making “social” a crucial component of digital life.
As the mobile age arrived, Apple again took the lead, defining the smartphone industry with the iPhone. It was not just a new product; it was the centrepiece of an ecosystem, from app stores to mobile software, that others like Google’s Android have continued to expand upon.
In cloud computing, Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform have reshaped how businesses utilise technology infrastructure.
Most recently, we’ve witnessed the AI revolution. Companies like OpenAI, with the introduction of GPT models, have made large language models mainstream, creating a new era of generative AI. DeepMind, with its focus on deep learning and breakthrough developments like AlphaGo, showed the world what was possible with artificial intelligence. Nvidia, with its pioneering work in GPUs, made the hardware advancements that enabled the AI boom, providing the raw computing power necessary for deep learning.
Each of these transformative eras was characterised by pioneering companies that not only created innovative products but also established entirely new markets, supply chains, and ways of doing business. They didn’t just participate in technological change; they actively shaped it, often disrupting existing industries in the process. These companies saw opportunities to reimagine the world and pursued them relentlessly, overcoming technological and market challenges along the way.
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Now, as we stand on the brink of the Big Martech revolution, a critical question emerges: Who will be the builders that lay the foundation for this new era? Which companies or visionaries will step up to reshape the marketing technology landscape, creating the tools and platforms that will define customer engagement for decades to come? The new builders of Big Martech will need to merge the insights of AI, data analytics, real-time customer engagement, and digital transformation to unlock new possibilities in the marketing domain. The question remains: Who will seize the opportunity to create the future of marketing as we know it?
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Incumbents or Disruptors?
I asked for inputs from ChatGPT and Claude.
When new technologies emerge, incumbent companies face a pivotal decision: lead the change or risk obsolescence. History provides examples on both sides of this divide, offering valuable lessons for the impending Big Martech revolution.
On one side, we have incumbents who successfully navigated technological shifts, reinventing themselves to stay ahead. IBM stands out as a quintessential example of adaptability. Once synonymous with mainframe computers, IBM successfully transitioned into the personal computer era in the 1980s. Later, under Lou Gerstner’s visionary leadership, the company pivoted again, transforming itself into a services and consulting powerhouse. More recently, IBM has positioned itself as a leader in cloud computing and artificial intelligence with its Watson platform, demonstrating a remarkable ability to evolve across multiple technological paradigms.
Microsoft’s transformation under Satya Nadella’s guidance is another testament to successful adaptation. The company transitioned from a PC-centric model to a cloud-first, mobile-first organization, becoming a leader in cloud computing with Azure. This shift not only revitalized Microsoft’s relevance but also propelled it to new heights of innovation and market value.
Netflix’s journey from a DVD-by-mail rental service to a streaming powerhouse is a masterclass in self-disruption. By cannibilising its own successful DVD business to embrace streaming technology, Netflix outmanoeuvred traditional video rental companies like Blockbuster, which failed to adapt quickly enough. This proactive approach not only secured Netflix’s future but also revolutionised how we consume entertainment.
Amazon’s evolution from an online bookstore to an e-commerce giant, cloud computing leader (AWS), and AI innovator (Alexa) showcases how a company can continuously reinvent itself across multiple domains. By consistently pushing the boundaries of technology and customer experience, Amazon has stayed at the forefront of multiple industries.
On the flip side, there are sobering examples of incumbents who failed to adapt, ultimately being disrupted by new entrants. Kodak, once a titan of the photography industry, failed to fully embrace the digital revolution despite inventing the first digital camera. Their reluctance to move away from their profitable film business left them vulnerable to digital camera manufacturers and later, smartphone cameras, leading to the company’s bankruptcy in 2012.
Nokia and BlackBerry’s fall from grace in the mobile phone market serves as another cautionary tale. Once market leaders, both companies were slow to adapt to the smartphone era ushered in by Apple’s iPhone and Google’s Android platform. Their delayed response and initial dismissal of touchscreen technology led to a rapid decline in their market dominance, with BlackBerry eventually exiting the hardware business entirely.
Xerox, despite inventing many of the technologies that would define the personal computer era (including the graphical user interface and the mouse) at its PARC research center, failed to commercialize these innovations effectively. This allowed companies like Apple and Microsoft to capitalise on Xerox’s groundbreaking work, relegating Xerox to a diminished role in the digital age.
These examples underscore a crucial lesson: in the face of technological disruption, complacency can be fatal. Successful incumbents are those who can recognise emerging trends, have the courage to cannibalize their existing business models if necessary, and possess the agility to pivot quickly. They understand that innovation is not just about developing new technologies, but also about reimagining business models and customer experiences.
As we stand on the brink of the Big Martech revolution, existing martech companies face a similar crossroads. Will they be the IBMs and Netflixes of their industry, leading the charge into the new era? Or will they become the Kodaks and Blockbusters, clinging to outdated models until it’s too late?
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A New Era
The Big Martech revolution is set to fundamentally reshape how businesses engage with customers, integrating advanced AI, data analytics, and personalisation at an unprecedented scale. Incumbent martech companies now face a pivotal moment—not only to adapt their technologies but also to completely rethink their approach to customer interaction and value creation. The actions of these companies in the coming years will be crucial in defining the landscape of Big Martech. Successful companies in Big Martech will need to combine strategy, stack, services, and a profit-sharing model to deliver the fifth ‘S’: solutions.
The companies that embrace this change, invest in innovation, and are willing to disrupt their own existing business models are likely to become the architects of this new era. Conversely, those that resist change or cling to outdated approaches may find themselves consigned to the pages of business history, serving as cautionary tales for future entrepreneurs and leaders. The stakes are high, and the window for adaptation is narrowing as competition intensifies.
The Big Martech revolution is not just about technological advancements; it represents a complete reimagining of the relationship between businesses and their customers. Companies that recognise this and act decisively will not only survive—they will thrive, paving the way for a new epoch in marketing technology. This transformation goes beyond simply adding new features or adopting the latest tools; it requires a shift in mindset towards building deeper, more meaningful, and value-driven connections with customers.
For years, Big Adtech has dominated the marketing landscape, with a relentless focus on customer acquisition driving strategy. However, its supremacy is now under pressure as rising customer acquisition costs (CAC) and declining customer lifetime value (LTV) challenge its sustainability. The industry stands on the brink of a paradigm shift towards what I call “Anti-Acquisition”—an AI-first strategy focused on re-engineering retention to achieve the sustainable growth that brands crave.
This shift marks the dawn of Big Martech, an era where companies can establish direct, personalised connections with customers through AI-driven hyper-personalisation at scale. In this new world, the ability to engage with each customer on an individual level, or N=1, will become the gold standard. But the crucial question remains: who will emerge as the architects of this Big Martech revolution?
The stakes could not be higher. Those who successfully lead this transformation stand to reclaim a staggering $350 billion currently lost to AdWaste, while simultaneously taking control of the future of marketing. The builders of Big Martech will not only redefine how businesses create and capture value, but they will also lay the groundwork for a new frontier in digital engagement and customer relationships.
In the coming years, the decisions made by these industry leaders will shape the evolution of marketing technology. The companies that adapt swiftly and strategically will unlock new opportunities and establish enduring advantages. The Big Martech revolution promises to be a defining moment—one that will separate the innovators from the laggards and pave the way for a future of sustainable growth and customer-centric success.