We investigate the mapping between local employment changes predicted by national industry trends and actual employment changes. Actual employment changes over-react relative to predictions, which is driven especially by overreactions when employment changes are already predicted to be positive and large.
The Effects of National Industry Shocks on Local Employment: Impacts on Geographical Inequality and Inefficiency
with David Dorn and Oliver Salzmann (LIDAM discussion paper 2023/25).
We investigate the mapping between local employment changes predicted by national industry trends and actual employment changes. Actual employment changes over-react relative to predictions, which is driven especially by overreactions when employment changes are already predicted to be positive and large.
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with John Horton and Ramesh Johari (LIDAM discussion paper 2014/13) When heterogeneous employers can send cheap-talk messages about the quality of candidates they would like, this improves sorting, increases wages at high firms and lowers them at low firms, and improves efficiency. In a field experiment we indeed see significant changes in labor allocations and wages in these directions. Go to paper
Working Papers
with Jan Eeckhout and Cristina LaFuente (LIDAM discussion paper 2024/17). In a heterogeneous-firm macro model with worker sorting, we investigate the implications of technological change that allows firms to supervise larger number of workers. Implications for firm size but also for wage inequality are substantial, even when compared to traditional channels such as skill-biased technological change. Go to paper
joint with Max Bres and David Koll (LIDAM discussion paper 2014/19). This paper provides causal evidence on the impact of subsidy re-allocation, exploiting European-level policy changes in France. In response to more laisser-faire, policy makers re-allocate subsidies away from research and development to mainly low-skilled manufacturing and service sectors, triggering persistent improvement of employment, mainly through increased low-skilled manufacturing employment and at the expense of R&D related occupations. In the long term, though, labor income and productivity decrease. Go to paper
With Michèle Belot, Bart de Koning, Didier Fouarge, Paul Muller and Sandra Phlippen. In a large-scale field experiment we study the impact of online information about alternative occupations for unemployed job seekers who are looking for work in occupations in very few vacancies per job seeker. Initial survey evidence suggests that job seekers have a poor understanding of their chances in alternative occupations, and the effects of our suggestions are large: their employment, hours of work and labor income all improve by 5\% to 6\% after 18 months. Go to paper
Working Papers
Optimal Age-Based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond
joint with L.Brotherhood, C. Santos and M. Tertilt, (new version 2025) R&R at Review of Economic Studies. This paper investigates the importance of the age composition for pandemic policy design in a framework with age heterogeneity, individual choice, and incomplete information, emphasizing the value of testing and testing capacity buildup. Optimal social policy follows an asymmetric approach by locking down the young relatively more than the old, and testing substantially lowers economic costs and laxer lockdown. We use the framework to provide systematic insights into pandemics caused by different viruses. Go to paper
Working Papers
With Michèle Belot, Bart de Koning, Yvonne Engels, Didier Fouarge, Mario Keer, Paul Muller and Sandra Phlippen. We design an online platform to connect unemployed job seekers with ‘buddies’: former job seekers who recently found employment. We focus on job seekers who search in occupations with poor prospects and buddies who successfully switched occupations. In a randomized controlled trial we find sizable effects: 13-18 after getting access, initially unemployed job seekers are 6 percentage points (11%) more likely to be employed and earn Euro 226 more per month than those without access. The positive impact is concentrated among the long-term unemployed. Go to paper