Keith’s note: The NASA OIG has released a report “NASA’s Launch Infrastructure” that throws a lot of cold water on the agency’s expansive launch growth ambitions – for both government and commercial launches: “NASA’s launch infrastructure is dated and lacks the capacity to meet the growing demands of the Agency and government and commercial partners.” The findings are summarized below:

Keith’s note: GAO has issued a report regarding the process whereby NASA is replacing the International Space Station with a commercial option. IMHO this report seems to have been overtaken by events including the addition of the newly-proposed government module during the ignition activity and the new RFI under development based on complaints from industry and potential users. Also, the report seems to entertain the notion of more than one commercial station receiving NASA funding when, to be blunt, the projected budget resources can only support one commercial space station – at most – not multiple vehicles. The report notes:

• “NASA also faces an overall risk of a potential gap in LEO. However, it has not yet assessed the likelihood or duration of a gap since undergoing several changes such as revising its acquisition approach. Assessing the likelihood of a potential gap would help NASA make more informed decisions on how to mitigate this risk.”
• “NASA is approaching a critical juncture when it must assess readiness and decide whether to pursue the retirement of the ISS and transition to the use of commercial space stations. If the commercial space stations are not assessed to be ready in time, NASA may need to consider other options, such as extending ISS operations beyond 2030, which would have budget implications.”

Keith’s note: During the “Ignition“ event in March NASA said it would launch a new government-owned anchor or core module to the ISS and then have it remain as the nucleus of any future commercial space station. Given that every commercial space station effort more or less launches its own infrastructure this would have thrown a wrench into their plans and possibly undermined commercial investment. NASA has decided to dial that back: “In the spirit of learning from past programmatic challenges and ensuring a responsible transition from the International Space Station, NASA evaluated both the current commercial space station approach and alternative pathways. Industry has provided extensive feedback making the case for a sustainable commercial market in which NASA is one customer among many, along with assurances regarding available transportation capabilities. The industry position will now shape the path forward as NASA proceeds with the original commercial strategy. Over the coming weeks, NASA will work with stakeholders and industry to refine flexible requirements and acquisition plans, with a draft RFP expected later this month.”

Keith’s note: I was just on CNN [Audio] talking about the New Glenn explosion last night – based mostly on video and initial reports of damage. The technical aspects, root cause etc. will take a while to emerge. Given delays with both SpaceX and Blue Origin contributions to the Artemis program this is a rather uncertain time for America’s return to the Moon. But NASA and its contractor team has bounced back before. Ad Lunam. Update: I was also on Deutsche Welle [Audio] and NewsNation with my long-time friend Leroy Chiao [Audio]. Video links below.

Keith’s note: a few minutes ago the Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded on its launch pad during a static test. Major damage has been reported. To state the obvious – especially in light of issues with SpaceX Starship 12 flight, this certainly changes things for NASA’s Artemis plans. Of course NASASpaceflight.com, always alert, caught the whole thing.

Keith’s note: The V 3.0 edition of the SpaceX Starship made its maiden flight tonight. The first stage with its sexy new Raptor 3 engines and total vehicle redesign did OK on the way uphill – but struggled with engine issues on the way back and made big splash (as planned) in the Gulf of Mexico. Ship 39 did much better. It lost a vacuum Raptor during ascent but otherwise did everything perfectly in space – except a Raptor re-light. A bunch of Starlink test satellites made elegant departures from the Ship’s ‘Pez dispenser’. They were followed by two “Dodger Dogs” – variants of the Starling 3 platform – equipped with cameras to look back at the spacecraft. And wow, they sure did. What a view. Re-entry was smooth and the vehicle looked rather clean as it did a soft water propulsive landing, fell over and did a nice rapid disassembly.

Keith’s note: NASA just issued this press release: “NASA announced plans Friday to compete the next contract for managing and operating the agency’s federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) in Southern California at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), to ensure continued accountability and strong value for U.S. taxpayers.” Full text below

Keith’s note: Depending on what effort is in motion, ISS will be shut down in 2030. Maybe a year or two later. There was a session at AIAA ASCEND today “A Microgravity Laboratory of the Future“. Given recent comments by NASA Admininstrator et al that the case for the things ISS was supposed to do having not been made, the issue as to whether CASIS needs to exist arises. The ISS National Laboratory exists in law and was created by Congress. The law stipulates a non-profit entity to manage to U.S. portion of the ISS dedicated to ISS National Lab functions i.e. CASIS. If the International Space Station is dumped into the ocean then CASIS has no ISS National Lab to manage. With all of the future commercial space stations – real and imaginary – setting up their own commercial/academic research ecosystems, the need for CASIS is no longer obvious. Earlier CASIS postings.

“NASA’s acquisition approach for the lunar landers has been effective in controlling contract costs, with the SpaceX and Blue Origin contracts having only increased by 6 percent and less than 1 percent, respectively. This was due in part to NASA negotiating mutually beneficial contract changes at no cost to the government. However, both SpaceX and Blue Origin have experienced schedule delays and face technical and integration challenges that have the potential to further impact lander costs and delivery schedules. In particular, SpaceX’s lander will not be ready for a June 2027 lunar landing. To accelerate lander development to meet a 2028 lunar landing date, NASA is assessing proposals from both SpaceX and Blue Origin, but it is too early to determine the technical feasibility, financial implications, and schedule impacts of these proposals.” — “While NASA is taking steps to prevent catastrophic events from occurring, ultimately, should the astronauts encounter a life-threatening emergency in space or on the lunar surface, NASA does not have the capability to rescue the stranded crew“. Full report

Keith’s note: this procurement notice appeared today. Looks like Jared Isaacman is not wasting any time in his rebooting of the Artemis architecture: “NASA/MSFC has a requirement for next-generation upper stages for use in Space Launch System (SLS) Artemis IV and Artemis V. NASA/MSFC intends to issue a sole source contract to acquire next-generation upper stages for use in Space Launch System (SLS) Artemis IV and Artemis V from United Launch Alliance (ULA) in accordance with FAR 6.103-1(c), Only One Responsible Source and No Other Supplies or Services Will Satisfy Agency Requirements due to the highly specialized nature of this requirement. A determination by the Government not to compete this acquisition on a full and open competition basis is solely within the discretion of the Government.”

Dear NASA Team, Within the next week, Congress will be briefed by the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, and NASA’s independent investigative report on the Starliner Crewed Flight Test will be released publicly. Many of you know this program intimately, and some of you lived every development in real time. We returned the crew safely, but the path we took did not reflect NASA at its best. Full memo below

Keith’s note: NASA issued a press release “NASA Releases Report on Starliner Crewed Flight Test Investigation” today: ” NASA released a report of findings from the Program Investigation Team examining the Boeing CST-100 Starliner Crewed Flight Test as part of the agency’s Commercial Crew Program.” Full release and report link below

Keith’s note: NASA posted this interesting news on Friday: “Perseverance Rover Completes First AI-Planned Drive on Mars“. This is a standard press release thing without much thought as to how it could be enhanced and re-purposed synergistically. Don’t mention the astrobiology or astrogeology science either. Just write it and push it out – on a Friday afternoon. In fact it could be used to leverage things NASA wants to be known for outside of the JPL robotics bubble. Done properly, White House OSTP; the tech, science, and commerce sectors; and other trending initiatives could be leveraged so as to boost visibility of NASA’s participation. But NASA is still kinda shy about all of that self promotion. NASA could do a vastly better job promoting all of its cool tech. Indeed, as budgets shrink NASA needs to do a much better job explaining itself. The Moon mission glow will (sadly) fade all too soon. (More below)

Keith’s note: here is an excerpt on space from Trump Administration Science & Technology Highlights: Year One, Office of Science and Technology Policy, pages 49-55 – (excerpt below).

Keith’s note: the other day Russia broke the only launch pad it has that can launch Soyuz or Progress missions to the ISS. Space social media is all over the place with what needs to be fixed and how long it will take, cost, etc. NASA has not said much of anything other than admitting “yea, we noticed”. SpaceX is doing just fine. Boeing Starliner – well, not so much and they are not going to be in a position to do much heavy lifting for a while until they prove – for the fourth time – that their system works. As was the case after the loss of Columbia we’re back to a single string of crew launch capability i.e. no back-up. And you will recall all of the arm waving and fuss that the incoming Administration had about two “stranded” astronauts on ISS. Cargo supply to ISS is better off (Dragon, Cygnus, JAXA). Yet, when you add in the ticking clock for splashing ISS and what a reimagined Artemis will look like and NASA is going to have its hands full in 2026. With fewer staff and a significantly smaller budget projection, this is going to be a challenge. ‘Per Aspera’ is going to be more pronounced as we do the whole ‘Ad Astra’ thing.

Keith’s note: Blue Origin absolutely nailed their first stage landing while its second stage is doing its thing in orbit with the twin ESCAPADE spacecraft destined for Mars. What a cool birthday present for @NASA SMD AA Nicky Fox. I was on Bloomberg Radio/TV to cover this launch [Audio] [YouTube]

Keith’s note: I also did an interview with ABC radio in Australia: “After days of delays, Blue Origin – the space venture of Amazon billionaire, Jeff Bezos – has successfully launched a giant rocket from Florida, with a pair of NASA spacecraft hitching a ride to the red planet. So, what’s the point of going to Mars and is it practical to have a battle of the billionaires to conquer the solar system? Featured: Keith Cowing, Editor, NASA Watch.com; Andrew Ucsinski, Space Industry Expert” [AUDIO]

Keith’s note: SpaceX Launched the 11th flight of Starship this evening. The first stage came back exactly as planned. Ship made it to orbit and worked smoothly. Payload doors opened and all Starlink simulators were deployed. When operational, each Starship launch will deploy an additional 60Tb of coverage to the orbital Starlink constellation – 20 times the amount of satellites that a Falcon 9 workhorse currently does. The upper stage then landed precisely on target in the Indian Ocean after doing some wild banking maneuvers on the way down. I did launch coverage on Bloomberg Radio (audio) and I was on Deutsche Welle TV to do landing coverage. (audio)

Keith’s note: I was on Bloomberg Radio today (Wednesday) to talk about the launch of Blue Origin New Shepard crewed flight NS-36. the launch window opened at 9:40 AM CDT / 13:40 UTC. The mission was conducted perfectly. Earth has 5 more astronauts (one crew member was a repeat flyer). (Audio)