Tag Archives: Iran

Trump war backfired?

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24

Let me start with the source of this opinion. Fawaz Gerges is professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. Gerges wrote the following piece for The Guardian : “Trump’s war has backfired spectacularly: Iran is now more influential than ever.”

Here is the subheading: “Tehran has shown that its grip over the strait of Hormuz is its most potent deterrent – arguably more consequential than its now defunct nuclear.” Now for a few paragraphs from his editorial.

“Donald Trump’s decision to go to war against Iran will be remembered as a grave strategic miscalculation – one that has reshaped the region in unintended and destabilising ways. With the ceasefire now extended indefinitely, we can see more clearly how the war has undermined the US’s standing in the world and failed to achieve its core objectives: it has neither brought about regime change in Tehran, nor forced Iran to submit to American demands. Far from it.

By inflicting economic pain far beyond the region and slowing the global economy, Iran has demonstrated that its grip over the strait of Hormuz constitutes its most potent deterrent – arguably more consequential than its now defunct nuclear programme. Control of the strait will be Tehran’s most powerful source of leverage in the years ahead.

And this strategy is not confined to Hormuz. Relying on its Houthi allies in Yemen, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also signalled its ability to threaten the Bab al-Mandab strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea – a choke point through which roughly 8% of global trade and a significant share of the world’s energy and chemical shipments pass. The prospect of disruption at both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab would amount to a double shock to the global economy.”

There is more to this ongoing story. We do know the incumbent president was advised to not do this. And, it is fairly apparent a clear strategic plan was not in place, nor was a definition of success or an exit strategy. But, Trump is not the first US president to make these mistakes. The lessons of Afghanistan, Iraq and Vietnam are there to be learned if anyone wants to investigate. My father was in the Korean conflict which did not even earn the “war” moniker, but Americans died for a bloody stalemate.

Call me crazy, but before Americans and our allies die, we should do them the honor of trying to avoid conflict. And, if we must fight – have a plan. The best line from the documentary series “The Vietnam War” by Ken Burns came from a North Vietnamese veteran. Paraphrasing, the only people who think they can win a war have never fought in one.



Nobody else is responsible

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An article by David Smith in The Guardian called “‘Nobody else is responsible’: Trump to blame for Iran crisis, ex-CIA chief says” caught my eye. The subheading elaborates further: “Leon Panetta calls president ‘naive’ over strait of Hormuz closure and says ‘the chickens are coming home to roost.’” Panetta has a lot of gravitas, far more than the incumbent president and his direct reports. Here are a few paragraphs:

“Donald Trump is stuck between ‘a rock and a hard place’ after three weeks of war in Iran and ‘sending a message of weakness’ to the world, Leon Panetta, a former US defence secretary and Central Intelligence Agency director, has told the Guardian.

Panetta, who served in the Bill Clinton and Barack Obama administrations, recalled that national security officials were always keenly aware of Iran’s ability to create an energy crisis by blocking the strait of Hormuz. That very scenario is now unfolding, leaving Trump with no exit strategy beyond wishful thinking.

‘He tends to be naive about how things can happen,’ Panetta, 87, who supervised the operation to find and kill Osama bin Laden, said by phone. ‘If he says it and keeps saying it there’s always a hope that what he says will come true. But that’s what kids do. It’s not what presidents do.’

Trump’s war began on 28 February with what it hoped would be a knockout blow. A surprise strike by Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The US and Israel soon gained air supremacy. But the longer the conflict has raged, the more that initiative appears to be slipping away.”

These few paragraphs capture what is needed to be known. Words like naive and kid-like are evoked by this piece. And, what further interests me is the risk of the strait of Hormuz being squeezed was known long before. My guess is military leaders told Trump and Hegseth this beforehand, but they chose not to listen. War is hard enough when you plan ahead, but harder still when you don’t. One thing is for certain and it has already started, any success will be claimed by Trump; any failure will be blamed on others.

A transactional president

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10


Several bloggers and I have touched on the observation the incumbent president focuses more on short term transactions rather than long term relationships. Relationships are built by trust over time and must be nurtured to be enduring. Sadly, the incumbent president does not have the patience or temperament to nurture relationships.

As a result, an article by Peter Walker in The Guardian caught my eye the other day called “UK not obliged to support every demand of ‘transactional’ US president, minister says.” The subheadline reads: “Pat McFadden says UK relations with US remain strong despite Donald Trump’s threats to Nato allies.”

Here are a few paragraphs that tell some of the story: “Donald Trump is a ‘very transactional’ president, whose repeated demands on Iran must be seen in this context, one of Keir Starmer’s most senior ministers has said in an unusually blunt UK assessment of relations between the countries.

Asked about the US president’s threats of some sort of retaliation against allies who do not supply ships to try to free up the strait of Hormuz, Pat McFadden, the work and pensions secretary, said the UK was not obliged to agree to every US request.

After Trump again criticised the UK for a perceived lack of enthusiasm in helping the US-Israeli war against Iran, McFadden said it was important to separate the US president’s ‘rhetoric’ from the more important issues.”

As Ronald Reagan was famous for saying , “There you go again, Donald.” Bless his heart, Trump just can’t help himself . Trump does something rash, it blows up in his face, and them he asks for help. So, now it is their fault for his not getting their sign off beforehand. And, it is not like some of his more knowledgeable staff did not forewarn him. Plus, he trusted another rogue like person in Netanyahu. So, acting roguish in a rash manner is not a good recipe.

Donald Trump is a “chaos agent”

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An article by David Smith in The Guardian caught my eye called “Trump wages war on Iran his own way: commander-in-chaos.” The subheading does not improve the president’s inage: “Erratic rhetoric, shifting goals and mixed signals leave allies, foes and voters unsure what the president wants from war.” Here are several paragraphs that paint a picture of chaos.

“‘Mr President,’ said a reporter. ‘You’ve said the war is ‘very complete’ but your defence secretary says, ‘This is just the beginning’. So which is it?’ Donald Trump’s eyes darted left and right then down. ‘Well, I think you could say both,’ he parried.

The confusing answer at a press conference in Doral, Florida this week did not befit a wartime leader armed with stirring rhetoric and a lucid plan. But it was entirely on brand for the 47th US president. The tumultuous style that Trump brings to election campaigns, dealing with Congress and global trade relations has now been imported to the theatre of war.

For as the conflict with Iran enters its third week, impacting nearly every corner of the Middle Eastand causing economic tremors around the world, Trump has emerged as America’s commander-in-chaos.

He has eschewed the solemn Oval Office address favoured by his predecessors at moments of national crisis. There has been no trip to the military academy at West Point or televised visit to an aircraft carrier to rally the nation. Even when Trump did attend a dignified transfer honoring fallen service members, he wore a white baseball cap emblazoned with ‘USA.’

Instead the president has delivered a dizzying churn of social media declarations, off-the-cuff remarks and wildly shifting objectives. The whirlwind may prove disorienting for the enemy and make it easier for the president to declare victory at a time of his choosing. But it could also throw his own side off balance.

Jonathan Alter, a presidential historian who has written books about Franklin Roosevelt, Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter, said: ‘He’s a chaos agent and that’s what he specialises in. He doesn’t think any further ahead than the next news cycle and so you get an on-again off-again zigzag foreign policy.’”

This assessment is not surprising in my view. Per conservative pundit David Brooks, he summarized White House reporter sentiment that the Trump White House during his first term was “equal parts chaos and incompetence.” And, it has not gotten any better in his second term and is actually worse.

Many presidents are guilty of not planning military operations beyond the initial phases. What does winning look like? How do we exit the process? How do we minimize the loss of life? But, planning anything beyond the next PR cycle is not in Trump’s wheelhouse. Plus, he is not very good about communicating with others – Congress, allies, trading partners, etc.

Economics of Iran attacks

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7


A newsletter from Geopolitical Futures called “Economic Implications of the Iran Attacks – Shipping and energy are among the most affected sectors” by Antonia Colibasanu is an excellent read on what may transpire. The article can be linked to below. Here a few paragraphs:

“The economic fallout from U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran is starting to take shape. Iranian state media and senior officials from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared late Monday that the Strait of Hormuz was “closed” and threatened to attack any ship attempting to transit the waterway. However, even before the closure was made official, reports had suggested the strait was shut to commercial traffic. These reports were, strictly speaking, inaccurate. What happened over the weekend was more procedural, though no less consequential.

As strikes took place and insurers reassessed exposure, carriers of all kinds – container lines, tanker operators, liquified natural gas shippers and bulk carriers – halted operations and waited for updated guidance. A slowdown in vessel tracking data confirmed as much. Ships were not so much blocked as they were waiting to see what would happen next.

Insurance played a crucial role in their decisions. After the attacks began, the Gulf was designated an “extreme war risk” zone by Lloyd’s of London and several protection and indemnity clubs. Underwriters withdrew cover temporarily, reclassified voyages under special war risk clauses, or imposed sharply higher premiums. Before entering the Strait of Hormuz, shipowners had to ascertain if war risk cover remained valid – and at what price….

The immediate effects of the Iran conflict, then, are measurable: longer delivery times, higher bunker fuel consumption, increased freight surcharges and tighter vessel availability. But the longer-term consequences may prove structural. In effect, the Strait of Hormuz shows how insurance markets, elevated risk perception and geopolitical escalation can impose a de facto closure on one of the world’s most critical trade arteries – even before an official blockade is announced. The crisis is not merely about oil; it’s about the price of risk and how fast it can reshape global trade lanes, capital allocation and economic stability worldwide.”

The attached piece is not too long, but the above gives you the gist. In short, the risk, cost, and time of transportation of oil will increase. That has an impact on many countries. Israel and the US has disrupted more than Iran.

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https://geopoliticalfutures.com/economic-implications-of-the-iran-attacks/?tpa=MGQ5NzdmMWMxMTcwOWY4MmE1MWI1MDE3NzMzMzA5MDgwM2Q4ZGI&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3A%2F%2Fgeopoliticalfutures.com%2Feconomic-implications-of-the-iran-attacks%2F%3Ftpa%3DMGQ5NzdmMWMxMTcwOWY4MmE1MWI1MDE3NzMzMzA5MDgwM2Q4ZGI&utm_content&utm_campaign=PAID%20-%20Everything%20as%20it%27s%20published

Top General tries to avoid conflict

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11

The article on CNN called “Balancing act: Top general tries to avoid conflict with Trump while preparing for possible war with Iran” by Natasha Bertrand, Hailey Britzky, and Zachary Cohen
is frightening to me. Here are a few paragraphs:


“As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine has been drafting military options for potentially striking Iran, a steady stream of top officials from the Army, Navy and Air Force have been quietly summoned directly to his office.

Typically, sensitive military operations are debated in the highly fortified conference room in the Pentagon known as the Tank. But in an administration that is focused on avoiding leaks, Caine — who is also known for his intensive secrecy — worried that assembling the top brass in the Defense Department’s nerve center on very short notice would draw suspicion, according to several sources familiar with the matter.


In those meetings and others at the Pentagon, Caine has been vocal about the potential downsides of launching a major military operation targeting Iran, raising concerns about the scale, complexity and potential for US casualties of such a mission, according to sources familiar with his advice.

Those concerns have not matched the rhetoric coming out of the White House, where President Donald Trump has been bullish on how easily the US military could achieve victory, though the exact dimensions of that success haven’t been defined.”

The frightening part beyond military intervention and its risk is we are letting an ego-maniacal and rash person make these decisions. But, if that were not enough, let’s pull a paragraph from General HR McMaster who served in the first Trump White House:

“In his blistering, insightful account of his time in the Trump White House, McMaster describes meetings in the Oval Office as ‘exercises in competitive sycophancy’ during which Trump’s advisers would flatter the president by saying stuff like, ‘Your instincts are always right’ or, ‘No one has ever been treated so badly by the press.’ Meanwhile, Trump would say ‘outlandish’ things like, ‘Why don’t we just bomb the drugs?’ in Mexico or, ‘Why don’t we take out the whole North Korean Army during one of their parades?’”

This is a picture of the US Commander-in-Chief. Let me leave you with a summary by conservative pundit and author David Brooks – paraphrasing, Brooks said the Trump White House is equal parts “chaos and incompetence.” I concur.

Retrenching into silos is the exact opposite of what is needed

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10

With the advent of more terrorists’ activities around the globe and the significant refugee crisis, nationalistic and jingoistic behaviors have taken more solid footing. With the backlash in some European countries, the Brexit vote and the rise of Donald Trump as an unlikely candidate for US President, show that protectionism is selling these days as a concept. These folks want to build actual and proverbial walls, rather than bridges.

Yet, that is precisely the wrong behavior needed. These so-called leaders feel if we segregate and retrench into our own little worlds, this cocooning will make everything better. What these so-called leaders fail to tell you is the significant benefits with being aligned, working together and doing commerce with each other. Economic trade breaks down barriers, as countries do not want to upset the financing of their economy and will work past governing differences.

President Abraham Lincoln did not coin this phrase, but he capitalized on it – keep your friends close, but keep your enemies closer.  Lincoln added several adversaries to his cabinet when elected. His view was if he could keep tabs on his opposition and argue with them, he could keep a lid on dissent at a time when dissent was in vogue. President Teddy Roosevelt was very open with reporters, in part because of his ego, but in large part to have the reporters be his eyes and ears. He would have them go speak with his department heads to learn what was going on.

Commerce breaks down barriers. Not only will we make more money by co-existing, we will be safer in turn. That is a concern of the Brexit vote, as the UK being a part of the EU makes the world safer and aids the economy of both entities. Like the UK, there is much to be gained in the US with the global economy, especially with companies who employ people here. Just here in Carolinas, there are multiple hundreds, if not thousands, of foreign companies who have US presences here, be it a North American headquarters or a major plant. BMW, Mitsubishi, Michelin, Doosan and Husqvarna come to mind.

We should not lose sight of breaking down barriers abroad. I have been a staunch supporter of doing trade with Cuba and Iran. The countries want to do business with us and we are well positioned to leverage that travel and trade. Just with Cuba and its 11 million people, it will be like adding a 51st state to our US economy. With Iran, of course, we need to keep our eyes open, but the median age of Iranis is age 35. We have a chance to create new economic paradigm with Iran which will live beyond the older regime. Plus, being closer to Iran will allow us to keep more tabs. This is the  best example of what Lincoln did.

The candidates who have touted building walls and retrenching are not being very open with the whole picture. They are using fear and an incomplete picture of reality. Companies have always chased cheap labor and as one CFO said in the book “The Rich and the Rest of Us,” if companies could get by with hiring no employees, they would. The greater threat is technology improvements as a new plant is not going to have 3,000 employees, it will have 300. On the flip side, Nissan in Tennessee and Mercedes in Alabama employ a great many American workers, which is not talked about enough as a benefit of globalization.

If we retrench, we will be reducing markets for goods and services. A venture capitalist once said what creates jobs is not owners, but customers. The fewer the customers, the fewer the jobs. But, with that said, there are elements of truth that workers need to ask more of the employers who have suppressed wages and let people go, to hire younger and cheaper workers. Companies are quick to hire cheaper, but need to be reminded that we employees are important and customers, as well.

I am reminded that two of the top three jobs creation Presidents had two things in common. Bill Clinton, the number one job creator at 22.8 million jobs, and Ronald Reagan, the number three job creator at 16.1 million, were both collaborators and advocated global trade, as reported in “The World is Curved” by David Smick, who was an economic advisor to both. Creating markets for trade and opening up our markets to others, in my view, is one of the best things a President can do.

Globalization is extremely important, but we need to manage it better. Throwing the baby out with the bathwater is something we must guard against. So-called leaders who are advocating this very thing need to be asked more questions. As they are not telling you the whole story.

 

China, Cuba and Iran

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8

Former President Richard Nixon became the first president who almost was impeached and would have been if he did not resign. Yet, in spite of his troubles at home where he ran a disinformation and burglary ring from the White House, he did make a huge difference in opening up dialogue with China. His efforts and those of Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, paved the way for changes in the economic relationship with that country which led to growth there and abroad.

I bring this up as when we look back in forty years at these moments, we may be able to say the same things about Cuba and Iran. Both have very young countries, with the youth crying out for better ties with the west and the products and services they bring. Yes, both countries are not being led the way we would want, but I believe having commerce with people is the best way to break down barriers. At some point, the commerce is so important, that it will be preserved and more dialogue will occur.

Of course, we need to move forward with our eyes open, but it is far better to find common ground than to beat on your chest and refuse to enter the sandbox. So, from where I sit, I applaud the President for opening up these countries to more dialogue, just as I thought as a teen that dealing with China was exciting.

We will see the positives with Cuba much sooner, as tourism will be ramped up this year. The president’s visit was a huge step forward. But, I think having a better relationship with Iran will pay dividends as well, yet I am not foolish enough to say trust them completely. So, let’s be cautiously optimistic and guarded as well.

 

A few things to consider about the Iran deal

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3

I am by no means an expert, but I want to ask our leaders to consider a few points about the Iran nuclear deal, after they finish beating on their chests and saying all the political things. Whether it passes muster in our Congress or not, a few things that should be thought about are as follows:

First, we are not the only country involved in signing this agreement. Our allies Germany, France and England did so well. And, Russia and China were involved. So, if we decide to not approve the agreement, we may stand alone.

Second, the President, Secretary of State and their counterparts should get a lot of credit for having these conversations, much less coming to an agreement. We have not had discussion of this nature with Iran in over 30 years, so their diplomatic feat should be applauded at a minimum. Getting a reasonable deal is commendable.

Third, the median age in Iran is age 35. That means half of its population is younger and is aching for a better economy and ties to the western world. We have a chance to win or lose another generation of Iranis. We have a chance to break down many barriers to future interaction. Or, we can continue to be an enemy and all that entails.

Fourth, what would happen otherwise is the question that must be asked. Iran would continue to do what it was in pursuing a nuclear bomb. They may even still under the vest. Yet, we have some governance with the deal we would not otherwise have. I understand the fears of Netanyahu, but he has been banging this drum for about ten years. It does not make the fears less, but I saw a Middle East expert note that Israel may benefit from a deal, because of more being out in the open.

I will leave it to the powers that be to say grace over this. Yet, I do think these points are important. One thing we should try to avoid are the “bomb Iran” crowd, as that would make matters worse and we would definitely lose that generation noted above.

Reality is scarier than fiction this Friday the 13th

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29

I have never been a big fan of gory horror movies, although I did enjoy Frankenstein and Dracula when I was little. And, The Exorcist and The Omen did cause some chills and entertainment. However, what is most scary to me are stories that could happen or did happen in real life. With that in mind this Friday 13th, the most scary things that could happen are very real and that is being led down poor paths by our leaders.

In no particular order:

– ISIS is scary, but what is most scary to me is our leaders possibly taking their bait and introducing US ground troops. That is precisely what ISIS wants. We have reached a tipping point and that is the Muslim world is saying no more to terrorists like ISIS who have hijacked their religion with extreme views. The fight against ISIS must be a Muslim-led effort with our support and help. ISIS knows this and wants to draw in America, so they can point to another enemy.

– Before leaving the Middle East, I shared with my Senator’s office that signing a letter to Iran with 46 other senators is asinine. These 47 senators endangered America by showing our division to the world. It is more than OK to debate and argue, but to circumvent negotiations over something this important and to disagree with something before you know what it is childish and dangerous. Columnist Michael Gerson, who is one of the best conservative bent writers, largely said the same thing in his column today. A shrewd leader will use this to our disadvantage. Putin has already written op-ed pieces in our papers to sway opinion. Remember this is the guy who controls his media, so he can play us against ourselves.

– But, let’s set this aside for a minute. What do the chest beaters want us to do if this agreement fails? What do the chest beaters want us to do in Ukraine? What do they want us to do in Syria? Our troops have said to people who will listen, we don’t mind fighting, but give us a clear-cut mission with an end strategy. What does winning look like? These folks that want us to get more heavily involved can not define what winning looks like, as to be brutally frank, it may not be clearly definable. There is a two-word term that comes to mind that military personnel use often to describe these situations and it begins with the word “cluster.” I will let you complete the thought.

– At the same time I was including in my previous post about the City of Miami and the three surrounding counties spending $200 million to combat the encroaching sea that is now coming up through the storm drains and flooding the streets, the state of Florida was striking the words climate change and global warming from formal documents. This is akin to the George W. Bush White House marking through scientific papers presented to them striking the same language. It is also akin to the state of NC General Assembly refusing to accept a peer-reviewed scientific paper that said the sea levels will rise 39 inches (one meter) by 2100, the same prediction accepted in Virginia, Maine, and Louisiana. I wish I could handle my problems this easily, by erasing them with my delete key or pencil eraser. Didn’t you know you could hold back rising sea levels with legal briefs?

– The scariest thing in America right now is our leadership and political machinations. No one cares to govern and only wants to grease the skids to get elected or remain in office. Everything is a win/ lose zero sum game, where one party has to disagree with the other party no matter what. For example, Obamacare borrows from Romneycare, a Republican idea which was advocated by Tea Party leadership for the country and is working for the most part, but Republicans have to hate it. Americans generally know what the problem is in large part, but with the election system gerrymandered and controlled by large donors coupled with a specifically uninformed public who does not know when they are being lied to by faux news shows, we do not have much hope for better governance.

Yet, we must try to make a difference. We have to hold our elected officials accountable. We have to ask questions of news experts and pundits regarding positions or statements they have made. We should also be wary of name-callers and labelers. When you hear someone resort to labels, be mindful that the person must not have a very good argument. We must also read, listen and watch more reputable news sources such as NPR, PBS Newshour, The Guardian, BBC World News America, Al Jazeera News to name a few. If we don’t, then everyday may be a Friday the 13th.