Explore the archive…

Thursday
25 June 2026 Iván Cepeda, the candidate for Gustavo Petro’s Historic Pact coalition, has conceded the presidential election to Abelardo de la Espriella (Defenders of the Homeland). Preliminary results indicated that there was less than a percentage point between the two rivals. Colombia’s first leftist president will be replaced by an anti-establishment right-winger close to the Trump administration. Will Colombia re-emerge as the United States’ primary strategic and security ally in Latin America? Since the launch of Plan Colombia in 2000, the country has occupied a singular position in the region. An unwavering ally of Washington, it allowed itself to become consumed by the ‘war on drugs’ and guerrilla conflicts. It also established itself as a counterweight to the left-wing governments that emerged in the region in the early 21st century. Petro’s rise to power in 2022 marked a turning point. His administration restored diplomatic relations with Venezuela, distanced itself from US anti-drug initiatives, severed ties with Israel, pursued ‘total peace’ with armed groups (from guerrilla forces to narco-paramilitary organisations), challenged the country’s reliance on extractive industries and increasingly aligned itself with Beijing and the BRICS bloc. Stopping short of a confrontation with the US, Petro sought to loosen Washington’s grip — work that is now under threat.

Thursday
21 May 2026 On Wednesday the US issued a criminal indictment against Cuba’s former president Raúl Castro, accusing him of conspiracy to kill US nationals, murder and destruction of aircraft. This relates to an incident in 1996 in which two US aircraft were shot down by the Cuban military over the Florida strait. The indictment followed a speech to the Cuban people by US secretary of state Marco Rubio, delivered in Spanish. ‘President Trump is offering a new path between the US and a new Cuba,’ he said, blaming blackouts and food shortages on the island on the Cuban authorities. As Christophe Ventura wrote in our March edition, Rubio’s political career ‘has been largely driven by the desire for regime change in the country his parents left before the revolution’. Ventura detailed how the US under Trump (and Biden) has choked off Cuba’s access to energy, revealing its external dependence. On our blog, Joy Gordon wrote about the punishing nature and reach of US sanctions on Cuba. What is the US’s aim, Ventura asks? ‘Is the objective to remove President Díaz-Canel, place Cuba under US tutelage, as has happened in Venezuela with the government of Delcy Rodríguez, and then transform the island into a new Florida, with rivieras, luxury hotels and golf courses?’

Monday
11 May 2026 The results of the local elections — which chose more than 5,000 English councillors and six mayors — confirm the political fragmentation noted by Tristan de Bourbon-Parme in our April edition, as the two main parties experienced a sharp drop in support. As predicted by opinion polls, the far-right Reform UK picked up the most councillors, increasing its tally from 2 to 1,453, and doing particularly well in Leave-voting areas. Meanwhile Labour was punished, losing 1,496 councillors, which leaves the party with the second-highest number, at 1,068. Labour’s losses were concentrated in areas with large Muslim populations, which in the past it could count on for support. Liberal Democrats gained, and Conservatives lost, councillors. The Green Party picked up 441 councillors (for a 587 total) and two mayors, winning control of three councils — a strong result. Independent candidates made small gains. The Welsh Senedd election, held the same day, saw Labour lose control after a century in power, and the Labour first minister lose her seat; Plaid Cymru won the largest number of seats. In the Scottish Parliament election, Labour and Reform were tied for second place, with 17 seats apiece to the Scottish National Party’s 58. Now the three devolved nations all have a nationalist first minister. The political analyst John Curtice noted that the Greens, who won an average of 17% of the vote, did more damage to Labour than Reform. Could this be the result of the worker’s party tacking right under the influence of Morgan McSweeney? Facing calls to resign, and the threat of a stalking horse challenge, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is fighting for political survival.