149 - The secret software layer about to be replaced
Every company has it, and it is at risk of being eaten by AI. Boring growth for Airbnb. Travel planning is #1 use of AI in Europe. Social Media's Tobacco moment.
Hello,
There is quite a lot to talk about this week. So I tried to put more source articles. And since this is easter weekend in many countries, maybe it gives you more to read on those long mornings.
Best, Martin
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AI is How Europe Plans Travels
European travelers are increasingly using AI in the inspiration phase. In fact it seems to be their main use of AI. That’s a big shift, because it moves influence earlier in the funnel. The urgency to find ways to be relevant and present on AI search is growing. I don’t have a magic wand and so far very few people do. But one thing is for sure, the more accurate and relevant data about your hotel is available the more chance it has of being discovered.
AI TRAVEL PLANNING
About me: I'm a fractional CMO for large travel technology companies helping turn them into industry leaders. I'm also the co-founder of 10minutes.news a hotel news media that is unsensational, factual and keeps hoteliers updated on the industry. Major Events Revenue Mgmt
Strong ticket sales but weak hotel bookings is a surprising disconnect. I wonder if we’re suffering from the standard mega-events revenue management dillemma. Paris Olympics, Vegas F1, London Olympics etc etc. Apparently if one would leave the standard revenue management rules operate it would work better than working out exceptions, at least thats what some professionals told me.
WORLD CUP DEMAND
Airbnb Gets a Boring Addition
Airport transfers are another step toward Airbnb becoming a full travel platform. Airport pickups are boring. With all the ride hailing apps even more so. But then that’s how Booking became big, through a lot of boring additions. Is being unsensational the recipe to success?
AIRBNB EXPANSION
Booking Windows are Cancellation Opportunities
A 40-day booking window with a 39-day cancellation window says it all. OTAs (one in particular) has made bookings a placeholder thing. Like that tentative meeting on your agenda. Several companies have created algorithms to predict cancellation risk, but I don’t see a lot of them in use. Encouraging people to cancel earlier could help. But then I guess it is human nature to hope that everything will be fine.
BOOKING BEHAVIOR
ChatGPT is picking winners
The evolution of ChatGPT into a recommendation engine changes how shopping decisions are made. If AI picks the “best option,” for hotels it will become even more important to give more data, details etc. For now it is related to shopping. But this will inevitable move to travel. And likely will become a cost per click.
AI COMMERCE + GETTING CITATED + OPENAI
There are only 2 choices
Luxury is booming while economy struggles. The middle is getting squeezed, forcing clear positioning decisions. As I have referred to before, there are only two choices when shopping. The best or the cheapest. The cheapest is objective. The best is subjective. Positioning work is how to place your brand as the best. The best in what?
K-SHAPED MARKET
Consistency is luxury
Good interview, argues that in luxury it isn’t personalization that makes the difference it is consistency. That luxury isn’t about creativity, it’s about reliability. That’s a hard truth in an industry where consultants sell storytelling as the big deal. But consistency is also the hardest to scale for a hotel chain. So storytelling is easier to sell.
LUXURY CONSISTENCY + PERSONALIZATION HYPE
Belmond Wins by Slowing Down
Belmond’s strategy is almost contrarian. Slowness as a feature, not a bug. That’s a strong brand signal in a world obsessed with speed. Sometimes differentiation is about resisting trends. I love it, as long as the slow down isn’t about waiting in line for hours (Disneyland already owns that).
SLOW HOSPITALITY
Follower counts don’t matter
The shift from follower count to interest in social media marketing changes things. Now it is about generating truly interesting posts that people will be interested in. We could say, less spam, more information? Hotels need to think like creators, not just brands.
CONTENT DISCOVERY
Social Media’s tobacco moment
This was bound to happen. Whenever one designs addiction into one’s product there are going to see long term problems. The idea that most social media companies and current entertainment platforms measure their success on time spent on their platforms incentivizes the addiction concept. Curious where this goes from here.
BIG TOBACCO MOMENT?
Opinion

Secret software layer nobody talks about but AI might absorb
We keep hearing that AI will replace SaaS. That agentic systems and coding tools will make software obsolete. Maybe they will (but there’s so many questions on that). However, there is one layer of “software” that nobody talks about which is an earlier candidate for replacement.
It is Excel.
More specifically, it is what Excel and spreadsheets represent inside companies. That invisible layer of problem solving that sits between nothing and real software. They are quick-fixes (that often become super complex over time).
Every company runs on it. Small companies, large enterprises, even complex organizations or F1 teams that should not logically depend on spreadsheets still do. Not because it is ideal, but because it works, fast.
This quasi coding environment. It lets anyone build input and output systems, dashboards, calculators, validation layers, data correction tools, and small operational workflows with logic, macros, pivots and more. It is where problems that are too small for engineering teams still get solved.
And that is the key point. These problems are real, but they are not big enough to justify proper software. They also change constantly, which makes them even harder to formalize. So they live in this flexible, messy, highly customizable space. Which most companies depend upon to function.
This is the layer AI is already starting to absorb. What used to be a spreadsheet passed around internally is now becoming a small “webapp”. Coded after that last meeting where the problem was identified.
A simple example is something like a salary or tax calculator. Historically, this lives in Excel. Now, the same thing can be turned into a quick app with a basic interface, hosted somewhere, accessible to anyone in the company. This shift is already happening.
Over time these things will get bigger and bigger, will need to connect to APIs, will need actual structure. Then they’ll probably turn into real systems. But for that there will need to be environments with security, API management etc.
Microsoft has a structural advantage, Google is not far behind, with its Workspace, and environments. The real bottleneck is no longer “can you build this” but “where do we build this.”
Excel will be around for a while, but the use of Excel/spreadsheets as the programable database, interface etc will probably change with AI coding. Now everyone can built some quick app solution.
So really don’t think the first real wave of AI disruption is SaaS. All these apps will need to get stable data from somewhere.
• Claude Code, friends keep talking about it - Link
• The inspiration Benchmark for hospitality - Link⁺
• Media industry: distribution vs direct dillemma - Link
• Artists versus Founders - Link
• ATMs didn’t kill Bank Teller jobs - Link
Did you know: The word "addiction" comes from the Latin word "addictio," which means "a giving over" or "a surrender." In Roman times, it described being strongly devoted, often due to a legal judgment. Over time, the word began to describe being strongly and often harmfully attached to something, usually referring first to drugs or alcohol and later to other behaviors. Defined using Lomar Dictionary⁺




