Best in Energy – 26 June 2026

U.S. coal-fired generators converted to gas (Construction Physics)

U.S. coal plants: costs v. benefits of reliability orders (Utility Dive)

China publishes energy targets for 15th Five-Year Plan (Xinhua)

U.S./Bahrain naval base severely damaged during the war (WSJ)

U.S. data centres and electricity supply chain resilience (RAND)

Iraq walks back threat to leave OPEC over quotas (Bloomberg)

U.S. GAS production, consumption and exports appear to have been balanced for the last two months, stabilising inventories after a steady accumulation earlier in the year. Inventories were 173 billion cubic feet (+7% or +0.47 standard deviations) above the ten-year seasonal average on June 19, essentially unchanged from a surplus of 169 bcf (+9% or +0.41σ) two months earlier. In a sign the market is more balanced, front-month gas futures have risen to almost $3.40 per million British thermal units (the threshold at which gas and coal-fired generation are roughly competitive with each other) from a low of just $2.50 in the middle of April:

Best in Energy – 25 June 2026

Hormuz re-opening floods oil market with barrels (Bloomberg)

Futures trading probe likely to end with settlement (Bloomberg)

Futures trading investigation likely to end with settlement (FT)

Futures trading investigation and offer to make payment (FCA)

India generators boost local coal use to reduce imports (Reuters)

China authorises increase in diesel and jet fuel exports (Reuters)

Fuel oil exports from the Gulf surge after Strait opens (Reuters)

U.S. government to support ten new reactors (Utility Dive)

LNG exporters pressure EU to dilute methane rules (DOE)

Iraq pushes for higher OPEC output allocation (Bloomberg)

U.S. PETROLEUM inventories depleted by another 10 million barrels last week and have fallen by a total of 151 million barrels since the United States and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February. Total stocks of crude and refined products (including in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) have fallen to the lowest for more than 20 years. Stocks were 314 million barrels (-17% or -1.72 standard deviations) below the ten-year seasonal average on June 19 with the deficit more than doubling from 134 million barrels (-7% or -0.84σ) when the war began:

Best in Energy – 24 June 2026

U.S. coal generators and emergency orders (Utility Dive)

China energy policy vindicated by Hormuz (Bloomberg)

Russia considers ban on diesel exports (Bloomberg)

Africa and the East Asia industrialisation model (FT)

Europe’s politicians battle over airconditioning (FT)

London’s newly built homes are too hot (Bloomberg)

U.K. grid warns over capacity during heatwave (BMRS)

United States investigates gasoline prices (Bloomberg)

Venezuela prepares massive debt restructuring (FT)

U.S./Iran talks struggle with messaging and trust (WSJ)

Congo pivots west under cover of cobalt controls (Reuters)

INVESTMENT MANAGERS have cut their position in Europe’s benchmark natural gas futures and options contract to the lowest since before the war between the United States and Iran started. Fund managers sold the equivalent of 51 terawatt-hours in the Dutch TTF contract over the seven days ending on June 19, the fastest sales for 15 months. Funds have sold in nine of the most recent twelve weeks, reducing their position by a total of 139 TWh since March 27. The remaining position has been cut to 184 TWh from 323 TWh at the end of March as traders become more confident about refilling storage ahead of next winter as the Strait of Hormuz re-opens:

Best in Energy – 23 June 2026

U.S./Iran oil sanctions waived for 60 days (WSJ)

Iran seeks to boost exports to Asia (Bloomberg)

CME/Kalshi battle over perpetual futures (WSJ)

CFTC consults on new trading rules (Bloomberg)

Qatar gas complex hit by massive explosion (BBC)

Maryland protests data centre costs (Utility Dive)

Hormuz closure and oil market adaptation (IEA)

BRENT futures for deliveries next year are falling as traders anticipate there will be plenty of oil available to meet consumer requirements and start refilling depleted inventories. The average of the twelve monthly futures contracts for delivery in 2027 (commonly called the “calendar strip”) settled at $74 on June 22 down from $80 shortly before the memorandum of understanding was concluded and a high of more than $82 in late May:

Best in Energy – 22 June 2026

Iran accelerates oil exports through the Strait (Bloomberg)

Global oil inventories have to be rebuilt after war (Reuters)

Europe is becoming over-reliant on U.S. LNG (Bloomberg)

Africa turns to electric vehicles (FT)

CHINA’s crude oil processing slowed to 54 million tonnes in May, the slowest for nearly four years, when the country was still in the grip of travel restrictions and lockdowns to control the coronavirus. Imports slowed even faster to just 33 million tonnes from 38 million in April and 50 million in March in response to the disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, roughly 2 million tonnes (15 million barrels) of crude appear to have been pulled from inventories:

Best in Energy – 19 June 2026

Global hydrogen production and consumption outlook (IEA)

Oil tankers prepare to signal to cross the Strait (Bloomberg)

India hesitates to resume Gulf crude imports (Bloomberg)

UAE says buyers must lift crude inside Strait (Bloomberg)

Permian Basin wells are become increasingly gassy (EIA)

Jet fuel prices slump in anticipation of more supply (FT)

LNG contract terms after Hormuz (Oxford Energy)

China-Europe rail freight growth (Xinhua)

U.S. RESIDENTIAL HEATING SYSTEMS – the transition from wood and coal to fuel oil and then gas and most recently electricity:

Best in Energy – 18 June 2026

Saudi Arabia-owned crude tankers transit Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg)

United Kingdom expects Russia to retaliate for tanker seizure (Guardian)

Ukraine mass drone attack targets Moscow oil refinery (Bloomberg)

Hormuz closure disrupted marine bunker market (FT)

INVESTMENT MANAGERS have cut their bullish net long position in European gas futures and options to the lowest for three months in expectation the ceasefire between the United States and Iran will allow regular LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz to resume and make refilling storage easier and cheaper. Fund managers sold Dutch TTF futures options for the eighth time in the last eleven weeks. The combined position had been cut to 235 terawatt-hours on June 12 down from a high of 323 TWh on March 27:

Best in Energy – 17 June 2026

[MUST READ] Hormuz re-opening and oil market normalisation (FT)

U.S./Iran agreement waives sanctions on oil sales and transport (WSJ)

U.S./Iran agreement gives more access to frozen funds (Bloomberg)

U.S. Central Command acknowledges transit support (Bloomberg)

Qatar recalls LNG tankers to the Gulf (Bloomberg)

UAE plans to end dependence on Strait (Bloomberg)

China dipped into oil reserves during May (Reuters)

China drills more ultra-deep shale gas wells (Reuters)

Global oil inventories forecast to replenish in 2027 (IEA)

Russia/Southeast Asia leaders hold summit (Bloomberg)

California’s solar generation overtakes gas in 2026 (EIA)

OIL SHOCKS of the 1970s had their biggest impact on the use of petroleum outside the transport system where more alternatives were available. One of the biggest long-term impacts was a permanent reduction in the number of homes using fuel oil, kerosene for heating. Fewer than 5 million (4%) U.S. homes relied on fuel oil etc. as their main form of heating in 2024 down from more than 16 million (26%) in 1970 and 17 million (32%) in 1960:

Best in Energy – 16 June 2026

Shipping industry warns re-opening Strait will take time (GCaptain)

China’s strategic oil policy vindicated (Bloomberg)

Hormuz disruption and long-run impact (Reuters)

U.S./Iran and virtual convoys via the Strait (Reuters)

Qatar LNG plans rapid output restart (Bloomberg)

Southeast Asia’s energy outlook and security (IEA)

China’s advances in oilfield development (Xinhua)

China self-sufficiency drive in lubricants (Xinhua)

Air India crash investigation proceeds slowly (BBC)

United Kingdom slows electric vehicle targets (FT)

BRENT’s six-month calendar spread has retreated to a backwardation of a little over $4 per barrel down from a record high of more than $37 on March 31 and not much higher than the $3 immediately before the outbreak of war between the United States and Iran. The spread has averaged about $9 so far in June (96th percentile for all months since 2010) from a near-record $20 in April after adjusting for inflation. Traders are anticipating a relatively rapid resumption of crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz that will arrest and then gradually start to reverse the sharp depletion of global inventories since the war began:

Best in Energy – 15 June 2026

Oil tankers prepare to transit the Strait (Bloomberg)

United Kingdom intercepts Russian oil tanker (FT)

U.S. petroleum stocks fall at unsustainable rate (WSJ)

Trans-Arabia freight after Hormuz crisis (Bloomberg)

New Mexico builds largest wind farm in country (EIA)

U.S./Cuba oil shipment cancelled (Bloomberg)

HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers held a bearish net short position equivalent to 262 billion cubic feet (23rd percentile for all weeks since 2010) in the two major U.S. natural gas futures and options contracts on June 9. The position has been slashed from recent highs of a bullish net long of 1,729 bcf (67th percentile) at the end of January and a very bullish net long of 2,396 bcf (82nd percentile) in early December. Production has accelerated faster than new LNG export facilities have become operational, leading to an accumulation of excess inventories and downward pressure on prices: