Heavy Moat Investments

Heavy Moat Investments

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Welcome to Heavy Moat Investments (Start here)
Your guide to this publication: Key features, links, who am I, what are my goals, my investment process, reviews and more
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January Valuation update
22% expected portfolio IRR with a 3% shareholder yield
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1:05:37
Casual Year end chat with René Sellmann talking 2025 reflections, 2026 predictions, Moats and AI
A few weeks ago I had a fun conversation with my friend René Sellmann reflecting on 2025, making some predictions about 2026 and talking about the…
 • Heavy Moat Investments and René Sellmann
Innoscripta AG: An incredibly profitable niche business with near binary risks
A recent IPO growing 50% with 60% EBIT margins
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InPost: Will history repeat itself?
My largest position could get acquired
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Level up your investment journey now!

Business Model

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The InPost bear case: Risk reward calculation
Lockers, Margins and Mispricing: A Three-Scenario Look at Europe’s Most Misunderstood Logistics Flywheel
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Why shouldn't MuM work out well from here?
Understanding and valuing Mensch und Maschine.
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Constellation Software's perfect storm
AI fears, a weak quarter and the GOAT stepping down (wishing him a speedy recovery!)
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The Stock Exchange Business model primer
How they work, where they win and what makes them interesting investments
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Ashtead Technology vs. Ashtead Group: Similar name, different game
Diving (pun intended) into the equipment rental industry
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Danaher: From Star Performer to Post-Pandemic Hangover
For years, Danaher stood at the center of secular growth narratives in biotech and diagnostics.
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The Indictment That Reads Like Satire: RCI Hospitality and a Tax Auditor
A serious situation with some big question marks
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Edenred/Pluxee: Sunk cost fallacy or opportunity amidst more regulatory pressures?
Am I deluding myself with my large bet on Edenred? Let's analyze it!
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Cellebrite: Dominating digital Forensics ( Growth plus special situation)
Developing the picks and shovels of digital crime fighting
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Why Scalable Software Might Be Riskier Than You Think in the Age of AI
The risks of AI to software companies and where to invest instead
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The Serial Acquirer Business Model Primer
How they work, where they win and what makes them interesting investments
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Mettler Toledo: A Quiet Giant in Precision Instruments
Analyzing Mettler Toledo: Quality, Moat and Management
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Heavy Moat Investments
Heavy Moat Investments
Straightforward Quality Investing – Actionable & Insightful Analysis. Written by Niklas, a young and self-taught investor.
Links
20% off Koyfin and 7 day free trial
My main analysis tool as seen in many of my articles.
1% additional yield on bonds/ETFs with Silo Markets
A good way to own safe products. IKBR takes care of asset custody, US customers only right now
Finchat 15% discount affiliate link
A very useful tool to visualize unique KPIs for thousands of businesses
20% off Portseido
Easy portfolio tracking with a fantastic team and fast support
Seeking Alpha Discount/free trial affiliate link
Stripe Carbon Removal Contribution
Resources
Inverse DCF Template
IRR Model Template
Inverse DCF explained
Owner Earnings explained
Net Working Capital explained
This is not financial advise!
Click to read more details.
Podcasts
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Heavy Moat Investments Podcast
Casual Year end chat with René Sellmann talking 2025 reflections, 2026 predictions, Moats and AI
Recommendations
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Business Model Mastery
Business Model Mastery
The Antifragile Investor
Compound & Fire
Compound & Fire
Compound & Fire

Quick Pitches

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Copart quality score: A high quality business finally on sale?
Is it finally attractive after a 38% drawdown?
SPS Commerce: Compounder on Sale or a fallen Angel?
A 60% drawdown after slowing growth and a botched acquisition
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Revisiting Eurofins Scientific: A global leader in Laboratory Testing services
Over the last months I’ve done a massive restructuring of my portfolio, as many of you will have realized.
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Greggs PLC: Undervalued, but how good is the business?
The pinnacle of British food
Shift 4 is not a set and forget stock
Strong returns, but far from a set and forget stock
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How the Edenred Amplified 25-28 Update elevated my conviction
Shares are down 7% after a good Capital Market Day
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New Buy: The Most Efficient Delivery Model You’ve Never Heard Of (24% IRR expectation)
Superior unit economics, higher sustainability and a long reinvestment runway
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Danaher: Do its strong fundamentals justify the valuation?
21% CAGR over 43 years, but no returns for the last couple of years.
Consolidating German dividend growth monster: Mensch und Maschine Quality Score
25% dividend growth over the last 10 years
Top posts
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