A logistics revolution hiding in plain sight

Imagine a logistics company that cuts last-mile emissions by more than a forest can absorb, delivers 99% of parcels the next day and operates with EBITDA margins north of 40% in a notoriously low-margin industry.

Imagine a courier who doesn’t visit seventy homes a day,
but instead delivers a thousand parcels in one shift. And goes home early.

This is an early pitch out of my research notes, together with my valuation discussion. A full deep dive will come in the future, but I believe this pitch brings the message across (assisted by AI to streamline my notes).

It’s happening right now, not in Silicon Valley, but in Central Europe. A physical network of lockers disrupting the logistics economics.

This business has:

• A strong physical moat.

• Founder led and with a large insider ownership.

• Strong margins in its core market and heavy reinvestment in new markets.

• ROIC above 15% and much higher ROIIC.

• A long runway for growth.

• Trading at a historically cheap multiple (24% IRR expectation).

This exciting, but defensive company now represents over 7% of my portfolio and I could see myself scaling more into it later on.