Category Archives: Japan

2025: “中国正在摆脱危机。而美国的运气正在耗尽。” ——曾任国际货币基金组织首席经济学家肯·罗格夫

Posted on 12/28/2025 by 高大伟 David Cowhig

德瓦克什·帕特尔（Dwarkesh Patel) ：肯·罗格夫曾任国际货币基金组织首席经济学家，现为哈佛大学经济学教授，其新作《我们的美元，你的问题》与《这次不一样》已相继出版。 本期节目中，肯预测未来十年美国将爆发债务引发的通胀危机，但不会出现日本式的金融危机（后者危害更为深重，可能导致国家数代人陷入贫困）。 肯同时剖析了中国的困境：为解决当前问题，中国持续依赖金融压制和国家主导投资，反而使局面雪上加霜。 我们还探讨了美元主导地位的削弱、海外股票配置再平衡的必然趋势、人工智能如何影响财政赤字与利率等深度议题！ YouTube观看；Apple Podcasts或Spotify收听。 赞助商 赞助未来节目请访问dwarkesh.com/advertise。 时间戳 (00:00:00) – 中国经济停滞 (00:25:46) – 美国如何摧毁日本经济 (00:37:06) – 美国通胀危机即将爆发 (01:02:20) – AGI能否解决美国赤字？ (01:07:11) – 利率为何必将上行 (01:10:55) – 美国股市将表现疲软 (01:22:24) – 美元霸权的侵蚀 文字实录 00:00:00 – 中国经济陷入停滞 德瓦尔凯什·帕特尔 0:00:00 今天我邀请到肯·罗格夫教授，他是哈佛大学教授，近期出版了《我们的美元，你的问题》一书，曾任国际货币基金组织首席经济学家。 肯，非常感谢您参加本期播客。 … Continue reading →

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Japanese Press (Kyodo): U.S. Public Diplomacy, Which Has Spread the Appeal of Freedom Through Education and Cultural Exchange, Is Rapidly Weakening Under Trump

Posted on 12/27/2025 by 高大伟 David Cowhig

U.S. Public Diplomacy, Which Has Spread the Appeal of Freedom Through Education and Cultural Exchange, Is Rapidly Weakening Under Trump Interview with Ann Walker By Kyodo News Editorial Board Member: Shōgo Kawakita U.S. public diplomacy—through which the United States has … Continue reading →

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2025: 莎拉·佩恩——日本帝国如何击败沙俄与清朝

Posted on 12/25/2025 by 高大伟 David Cowhig

德瓦克什·帕特尔 （Dwarkesh Patel)介绍 Sarah Paine — How Imperial Japan defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China: 在与莎拉·佩恩的系列讲座结束后，我仍有诸多疑问。深知我们仅触及莎拉学术研究的皮毛，我当即邀请她再度开讲：她欣然应允，未来数周乃至数月我们将陆续发布系列讲座内容！ [前三个讲座汉英翻译： 首讲聚焦20世纪之交东亚的权力平衡格局。具体而言，日本（人口4700万）如何战胜中国（4亿）与俄罗斯（1.3亿）成为亚洲霸主？ 对我而言最耐人寻味的是：日俄战争（1904年）初期日本对旅顺港的突袭，恰恰揭示了其为何认定珍珠港事件会奏效。 观看请访问YouTube；收听请前往Apple Podcasts或Spotify。 赞助商 欲赞助未来节目，请访问 dwarkesh.com/advertise。 时间戳 (00:00:00) – 日本明治维新 (00:14:44) – 跨西伯利亚铁路与日本三年帝国扩张窗口 (00:29:58) – 日俄战争最关键战役 (00:48:38) – 中国的崩溃：帝国主义、内战与鸦片 (00:59:31) – 俄罗斯是否曾有望称霸亚洲？ (01:14:20) – … Continue reading →

Posted in 英汉翻译, Foreign Relations 外交, Governance, History 历史, Japan | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

2025：美国海軍戰爭學院莎拉·佩恩教授–日本為何在二戰中戰敗 (英汉机器翻译）

Posted on 12/22/2025 by 高大伟 David Cowhig

莎拉·佩恩——日本為何在二戰中戰敗（講座與訪談） 延續我們的二戰系列：解析日本帝國主義背後的思想與經濟根源，以及導致其戰敗的致命軍事文化缺陷 德瓦克什·帕特爾 2025年1月23日 本系列為三部曲之二，由海軍戰爭學院莎拉·佩恩教授主講。 本集講者剖析二戰前後日本帝國主義背後的思想與經濟根源，深入探討： • 引發戰爭的石油短缺危機 • 獨特的榮譽與死亡文化 • 令人驚詫的混亂指揮體系 隨後將進行我與講者的問答環節。 衷心感謝Substack平台承辦本次活動！ 觀看影片請至YouTube。收聽請至Apple Podcasts、Spotify或其他播客平台。 時間戳記 (0:00:00) – 講座開始 (0:06:58) – 武士道精神 (0:10:45) – 佛教、神道、儒家思想 (0:16:52) – 武士道作為拙劣戰略 (0:23:34) – 軍事理論家 (0:33:42) – 戰略上的疏忽之罪 (0:38:10) – 癱瘓的後勤體系 (0:40:58) – … Continue reading →

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2025: Think Tanker Xu Yongzhi on Potential Japanese Involvement in Taiwan ‘Contingency’

Posted on 11/16/2025 by 高大伟 David Cowhig

Links, material in brackets [ ] are added. See also: 2025: People’s Daily Commentary on Japanese PM Statement that Taiwan Straits Conflict Would be an Existential Threat to Japan, MOFA 11/14 Statement, Japanese Language Tweet Calls to Use Force in the … Continue reading →

Posted in Bilateral Relations, Japan, Taiwan | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

2025: People’s Daily Commentary on Japanese PM Statement that Taiwan Straits Conflict Would be an Existential Threat to Japan, MOFA 11/14 Statement, Japanese Language Tweet

Posted on 11/14/2025 by 高大伟 David Cowhig

An authoritative People’s Daily November 14, 2025 commentary criticizing Japan’s position on Taiwan came out just a few days after the Japanese Consul General in Osaka suggested that the Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi‘s head should be cut off because … Continue reading →

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2025: Japan’s Defense Think Tank on PLA Strategic Deterrence

Posted on 11/09/2025 by 高大伟 David Cowhig

This article by Sugiura Yasuyuki 杉浦 康之 , senior researcher on China in the Regional Studies Section of the Japanese official defense thinktank the National Institute for Defense Studies. The National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS) serves as the Japanese … Continue reading →

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2005: Take Tsuguhira on Guo Moruo’s Startling 1966 Self-Denunciation

Posted on 10/26/2025 by 高大伟 David Cowhig

Guo Moruo’s abrupt self-denunciation of 1966 was examined in the 2005 article “Guo Moruo’s Self-Criticism — An Unresolved Case” 郭沫若の自己批判の懸案 by Take Tsuguhira 武継平 of the Graduate School of Languages and Cultures, Kyushu University 九州大学大学院言語文化研究院. This article, available online, appeared … Continue reading →

Posted in 20th Century Chinese Literature, Cultural Revolution, History 历史, Japan, Literature 文学 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

2023: Admiral Yamamoto as the Heir to Established Japanese Naval Strategy

Posted on 03/10/2025 by 高大伟 David Cowhig

A 2023 article in the ​”Kaikankō Senryaku Kenkyū” (海幹校戦略研究), [“Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Command and Staff College Review,”] Isoroku Yamamoto as the Heir to Traditional Japanese Naval Strategy discusses recent critiques of Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto — that he pursued a … Continue reading →

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January 1941: Admiral Yamamoto Prewar Letter to Diet Member Sasakawa — “To Defeat the US, Japanese Troops Would Have to March to Washington, D.C. and Exact a Pledge at the White House”

Posted on 02/09/2025 by 高大伟 David Cowhig

Nearly a year before the Pearl Harbor attack in January 1941, the commander of that attack, Admiral Yamamoto Isoroku wrote to Diet member Sasakawa Ryoichi. Sasakawa, who had recently inspected the Japanese Imperial Navy South Seas forces under Admiral Yamamoto’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Japan, Military 军事 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments