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Market Updates
A Tale of Two Tapes
A Tale of Two Tapes | Euro Pacific Asset Management Euro Pacific Asset Management A Tale of Two Tapes Jim Nelson, CFA | April 16, ...
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The Midterm Pump and the Price of Oil
The Midterm Pump and the Price of Oil | Euro Pacific Asset Management Euro Pacific Asset Management The Midterm Pump and the Price of Oil ...
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Gold’s Correction Is Technical, Not Fundamental
Gold has fallen roughly 21 percent from its all-time high of nearly $5,595 reached in late January to approximately $4,430 as of this writing, and ...
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Midterm Pump in Motion: This Week’s Data Confirms the 2026 Playbook
This week’s economic releases have once again underscored the policy dynamics we outlined in our January outlook. President Trump faces a high-stakes midterm election in ...
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A Volatile Day, Not a Broken Thesis
Today’s sell-off in precious metals was painful to watch, especially after a strong run. Gold saw one of its sharpest one-day drops in decades and ...
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Investment Update: The “Sell America” Trade Isn’t a One-Off
Tuesday’s market turbulence was a good reminder that the calm we saw for much of late 2025 was the exception, not the rule. In Japan, ...
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Reading Between the Dots: Politics, Policy, and the Fed’s New Direction
The Federal Reserve’s September meeting may be remembered less for the modest quarter-point cut it delivered and more for what it revealed about the state ...
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Bullish Now, Bumpy Ahead: Tariffs, Stimulus, and the Shadow of Inflation
The late-summer calm in financial markets shows an undercurrent of optimism. Stocks have been on a tear, with the S&P 500 rebounding strongly to notch ...
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No More Duty-Free Deliveries: How the De Minimis Rollback Fuels Inflation
This past week, we saw a sweeping change in U.S. trade policy come into effect with the termination of the long-standing “de minimis” exemption on ...
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Tariffs, Deficits, and the Return of Inflation: What July’s PPI Is Telling Investors
The July Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which revealed a 0.9% month-on-month increase—the largest jump in over three years, supports our thesis of continued price ...
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June CPI Confirms Inflation Is Creeping Back
The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report offers clear confirmation that inflation is quietly reasserting itself. After several months of modest disinflation, headline CPI rose ...
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Fiscal Spending May Provide Tailwinds for Risk Assets
As we move into the second half of 2025, it is an opportune moment to reassess our market outlook and provide updated insights for investors. ...
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More Signs of Persistent Inflation in the US Economy
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the January 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, and the numbers make one thing clear—inflation isn’t ...
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January Jobs Report: A Solid Labor Market, But Signs of Moderation
The January Employment Situation Report reaffirmed the resilience of the U.S. labor market, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 143,000 and the unemployment rate ticking down ...
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Balancing Caution and Optimism: Navigating 2025’s Market Dynamics
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors. Over the past several ...
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PMI Report Highlights: Inflation Pressures Persist Amid Services Sector Growth
The December PMI report, released on January 5, 2025, indicates that the U.S. services sector continued to grow, albeit at a measured pace, suggesting resilience ...
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Decoding the Fed’s Latest Meeting: Impacts and Insights
The Federal Reserve’s recent meeting signaled a notable shift in its monetary policy approach. As we’ve highlighted as a risk in our recent market updates, ...
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Producer Price Index (PPI) Data: More Data Points for Persistent Inflation
The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report, released today, showed that inflationary pressures in the production pipeline remain higher than expected. November’s PPI Final Demand ...
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Insights on the Recent CPI Release and Implications for Inflation and the Fed
The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, released today, provide critical insights into the ongoing battle against inflation and its implications for markets. Headline CPI ...
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Inflation, Monetary policy, and the Financial Markets
The November U.S. employment report shows continued labor market strength, with non-farm payrolls rising by 227,000 and the unemployment rate ticking up slightly to 4.2%. ...
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Inflation Watch: Shelter Costs Signal Potential Challenges for Fed Policy
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October 2024 reveals a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the all-items index, with the year-over-year figure climbing to ...
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How Donald Trump’s Return Could Shape the Economy and Markets
As Donald Trump returns to office, he steps into an economic environment with unique strengths and opportunities, as well as challenges that may shape markets ...
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Innovation and Sustainability: What Seoul’s Transformation Teaches Investors
In the summer of 2022, I took a walking tour through Seoul, South Korea, a city where the past and future intertwine. Every step revealed ...
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Overcoming Bearishness: What London’s History Teaches About Long-Term Investing
This past July, I had the opportunity to visit London, one of the most historically rich and architecturally stunning cities in the world. As we ...
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Jobs Report Supports Inflationary Pressures Despite Fed’s Dovish Moves
The latest Employment Situation Report released on October 4, 2024, showed nonfarm payrolls increasing by 254,000 in September, with the unemployment rate holding steady at ...
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Springtime in Paris: A Lesson in Value
In the spring of 2021, my family and I had the pleasure of visiting Paris, a city that radiates beauty from every corner. From the ...
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Fed’s Rate Cut: What It Means for the Economy and Investors
On September 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5%, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 4.75% to 5%. ...
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Lessons in History: Japan and Navigating the Perils of Herd Mentality in Investing
Jim Nelson, CFA Managing Member, Portfolio Manager In the summer of 2023, I embarked on a guided tour of Japan, a journey that took me ...
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Latest CPI Numbers Signal Potential Problems for 2025
As we approach the end of 2024, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has provided us with ...
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Discovering Bratislava: A Walk-Through History and Economic Insight
Jim Nelson, CFA Managing Member, Portfolio Manager Discovering Bratislava: A Walk-Through History and Economic Insight Bratislava, the charming capital of Slovakia, is a city ...
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A Journey Through Krakow’s History: From Ancient Gates to Timeless Investment Lessons
A Journey Through Krakow’s History: From Ancient Gates to Timeless Investment Lessons Jim Nelson, CFA Managing Member, Portfolio Manager This summer, I had the ...
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Unveiling Prague’s Timeless Architecture: Lessons in Value Investing
Unveiling Prague’s Timeless Architecture: Lessons in Value Investing Jim Nelson, CFA Managing Member, Portfolio Manager Introduction On my recent visit to Prague, I was ...
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Inflation’s Hidden Risks: A Dive into the July CPI Report
Inflation’s Hidden Risks: A Dive into the July CPI Report The July 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, showing a 2.9% year-over-year increase from July, ...
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Discovering Budapest’s Hidden Treasures: The Value of Patience in Investing
Discovering Budapest’s Hidden Treasures: The Value of Patience in Investing Jim Nelson, CFA Managing Member, Portfolio Manager Introduction This summer, I had the opportunity ...
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A Journey Through Norway’s Rich History and Natural Beauty: A Lesson in Strategic Moats and Investment
A Journey Through Norway’s Rich History and Natural Beauty: A Lesson in Strategic Moats and Investment Jim Nelson, CFA Managing Member, Portfolio Manager In the ...
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Be Aware of the Sahm Rule Trigger, but Don’t Panic
Recent developments in the U.S. labor market have triggered the Sahm Rule, an economic indicator known for predicting the onset of recessions. Developed by economist ...
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Recent Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements a Mixed Bag for Global Liquidity
Recent Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements a Mixed Bag for Global Liquidity We’d recently written a piece on the importance of following the Treasury’s projected Treasury ...
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Discovering Copenhagen: A Journey Through History, Culture, and Opportunity
Discovering Copenhagen: A Journey Through History, Culture, and Opportunity Jim Nelson, CFA Managing Member, Portfolio Manager My recent visit this summer to Copenhagen, Denmark, was ...
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Discovering the Salzburg Salt Mine: A Journey Through History and Wealth
Discovering the Salzburg Salt Mine: A Journey Through History and Wealth Jim Nelson, CFA Managing Member, Portfolio Manager My recent visit to the Salzburg salt ...
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Recent Misses in the Luxury Sector: Inflation’s Growing Impact
The luxury goods sector has long been a bellwether for economic health and consumer confidence. In recent months, however, several high-profile luxury brands have reported ...
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Global Liquidity and the Treasury General Account: A Potential Constraint on Market Performance
As we approach the end of the fiscal year, investors should be focusing on the Treasury General Account (TGA) as one factor of many that ...
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A Journey to Milan: Lessons from the Past for Today’s Economy
A Journey to Milan: Lessons from the Past for Today’s Economy Jim Nelson, CFA Managing Member, Portfolio Manager This week, I had the pleasure of ...
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Inflation Slowdown in Latest CPI Release: A Temporary Reprieve Amid Looming Risks
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) release has brought some much-needed respite, indicating a slowdown in inflation. Yet, underlying economic conditions suggest that this reprieve ...
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Keeping an Eye on China Growth & Policy Response
China just released a GDP growth number of 4.7% y/y, falling short of consensus growth expectations of 5.1%. Recent IMF economic reports indicate that China’s ...
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2Q23 Update & Outlook
Interest rates are at 20-yr highs, yet unemployment is at 50-yr lows, core-PCE is near 30-yr highs, and Wall Street (and Fed) economic forecasts continue ...
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2023 Outlook & Strategy Update
We believe Powell will “keep at it”. But we also believe he has misdiagnosed the 1970’s inflation, and his policy prescription may exacerbate the inflation ...
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2Q22 Review & Strategy Update
In 1H22 societies, economies & markets around the world were shaken by the actions of unelected policymakers in Russia (Putin-war), China (Xi-lockdown) & the U.S. ...
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1Q22 Review & Strategy Update
For the last 5+ years, our Key Themes (& portfolios) have been guided by our “2001 Analog” (pg-2). For the next 5+ years, we expect ...
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2022 Update & Outlook
We have two new Key Themes for 2022; #1 Year of Rebalance, #2 Feels like 2018, May be 2000. Our “2001 Analog” remains intact. Pre-Covid, ...
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3Q21 Review & Strategy Update
We maintain our 2021 Key Themes & highlight Theme #1 “Early-Then, Late-Now”, which references our “2001 Analog”. In the prior period (Then), policy tightened Early ...
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2Q21 Review & Strategy Update
Our 2021 Key Themes remain intact with an emphasis on Theme #2 Big Turns Take Time. In the past year, the government sector has been ...
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1Q21 Review & Strategy Update
Headed into 2Q21, we believe cyclically sensitive sectors/regions are due for a breather while Gold stock leadership is set to resume. We remain positive on ...
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2021 Outlook & Strategy
Like the 9/11 attacks of 2001, the Covid crisis of 2020 was a “large shock” that has catalyzed substantial fiscal expansion. Like the period following ...
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3Q20 Review & Strategy Update
In 2Q, unprecedented fiscal relief prevented the U.S. from spiraling into a depression. In 3Q, that support faded & the economic bounce stalled. In 4Q, ...
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2Q20 Review & Strategy Update
In coming weeks, we believe U.S risk-assets could move back toward March lows while Gold could breakout to all-time highs. The 2Q economic bounce (aided ...
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1Q20 Review & Strategy Update
During the March sell-off, we added to our Gold positions, taking our allocations to their maximum allowable levels. Since early 2016, when we first started ...
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Market Update 2020 Outlook
For 2020, Key Themes remain guided by our “2001 Analog” while recognizing an important distinction. In the prior period, both fiscal & monetary easing started ...
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Market Update November 2019
In recent weeks, a common market narrative has dominated headlines. We wanted to quickly address it and reiterate our 2019 Key Themes. Headline Narrative: “With ...
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Market Update October 2019
We have updated Key Theme #2 from “Implicit Easing Insufficient” to “Explicit Easing Until Dollar Down”. Other Themes remain intact and we expect Theme #1 ...
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