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Iran’s May 2026 declaration asserting authority over the Strait of Hormuz, including proposed transit fees and security clearances, undermines the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees free passage through global shipping lanes and is widely regarded as customary international law. The move risks increasing shipping costs, disrupting energy flows and heightening geopolitical tensions. While broad international opposition makes implementation unlikely, failure to challenge Iran could set a dangerous precedent that destabilises the global maritime order.
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The Iran war has exposed weaknesses in US stockpiles and defence production, potentially creating a more favourable strategic environment for Beijing in the late 2020s. But Chinese President Xi Jinping’s sweeping purge of senior military officers has inflicted deeper damage on China’s command structure, undermining the trust and operational competence required for a complex invasion of Taiwan. As a result, Beijing is more likely to intensify coercive pressure and blockade rehearsals than attempt an immediate invasion, giving the United States and its allies time to strengthen logistics and deterrence.