Development and Use of Endemic Channels for Diagnostic and Preventive Purposes in Health Decision-Making

Abstract

This theoretical-practical study presents the conceptual and methodological foundations for the construction and application of endemic corridors as a diagnostic and prevention tool in public health decision-making. The work highlights the central role of statistics and graphical representation in the interpretation of health phenomena, allowing for an understanding of the dynamics of the health-disease process in specific populations and strengthening epidemiological surveillance strategies. The endemic corridor is defined as an analytical tool that uses historical incidence data to establish expected patterns of occurrence of health events in a given period. Based on the analysis of time series—ideally five to seven years—a historical mean line is calculated and quartiles are determined that allow different zones of epidemiological behavior to be delimited: success or control zone, endemic or safety zone, alert zone, and epidemic zone. This segmentation facilitates the early identification of anomalous variations in the incidence of health events. As a practical application, the study uses the event “patient falls” in a second-level hospital as a unit of analysis, considering its relevance as an indicator of quality of care along with variables such as mortality, hospital stay, and readmissions. By organizing monthly data, calculating averages and medians, and determining quartiles, an endemic corridor is constructed that allows trends to be evaluated and reliable situational diagnoses to be established. The results show that this tool is an accessible and effective resource for healthcare professionals, facilitating the identification of risks, the planning of preventive interventions, and the continuous improvement of healthcare quality.