Problem

Managing money has become increasingly complex, particularly for users with volatile income, multiple recurring commitments, or limited access to financial guidance. Frictionless digital payments and short-term credit products make spending easier while obscuring forward-looking risk. Traditional budgeting tools focus on tracking past transactions but do not quantify how a new purchase affects future solvency or delays savings goals. This creates an information gap at the point of decision, where users lack clear insight into their true financial resilience.

Solution

DebtShield is a web-based platform linked to a browser extension that integrates directly into the checkout process. Users import their bank transaction data into a profile where we calculate income level, income volatility, recurring commitments, and spending behaviour. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we generate many possible 12-month cash flow paths and update monthly cash positions after income, expenses, interest, and required payments. A default event is defined as cash becoming negative at any point. The Shield Score is computed as the probability of remaining solvent across simulated paths. When a new purchase is initiated, the extension intervenes and recalculates this probability in real time, showing how the purchase changes financial stability and how it affects the time required to reach user-defined savings goals.

Impact

DebtShield provides forward-looking, probabilistic insight at the exact moment financial decisions are made. Instead of asking “can I afford this today?”, users see how each purchase alters their probability of remaining solvent over the next year and how it shifts their savings trajectory. By reducing information asymmetry at checkout and translating complex financial risk into an interpretable metric, DebtShield supports more inclusive, responsible, and resilient financial behaviour.

Challenges

  • Reliable price detection across diverse retailer web pages
  • Seamless integration with different checkout architectures
  • Presenting probabilistic risk information in a clear way
  • Behaviourally effective without overwhelming the user
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