Analysis

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Second Thomas Shoal has become one of the most sensitive flashpoints in the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines. Since 1999, when the Philippines deliberately grounded the warship BRP Sierra Madre on the shoal, the feature has steadily evolved into a key front line in the broader maritime contest between the two […]

This article is written in response to Navigating the Divide: Why the U.S. Navy Must Resume FONOPs in Indonesia by Patrick Panjeti, Military Fellow at the CSIS Defence and Security Department. 1. Introduction: Misrepresenting Indonesia’s Legal Commitments In his essay “Navigating the Divide,” Patrick Panjeti presents a provocative and fictional scenario set in 2027: a […]

Southeast Asia is quietly entering a new strategic era, one defined not by the size of a navy’s fleet, but by the range of its missiles. Across the region, an emerging pattern is becoming visible. Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia are each moving rapidly to establish anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) postures. For some, the shift is born […]

For years, China has promoted the idea of “shelving disputes” in the South China Sea and focusing on areas of cooperation. Southeast Asian claimants—Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam—have been receptive to this approach to varying degrees. While this strategy brings significant economic benefits, it carries substantial long-term risks for their territorial claims and regional […]

Introduction On September 10, China approved the establishment of a nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal, also known as Bajo de Masinloc in Tagalog or Huangyan Dao in Chinese, a coral atoll whose sovereignty is under dispute between China and the Philippines. According to Beijing, the reserve covers approximately one acre on the northeastern side of […]

In early May this year, the Malaysian government considered replacing the Tun Sharifah Rodziah static offshore forward operating base with a Mobile Offshore Base (MOB). This shift in thinking is not merely a logistical upgrade but a timely and strategic recalibration of the country’s maritime security architecture. Defence Minister Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin said […]

Europe and the Indo-Pacific may be connected by global data flows, but their submarine cable policies reflect vastly different priorities. In Europe, concerns over hostile state interference—particularly from Russia—have put resilience, redundancy, and rapid response at the center of policy frameworks. In contrast, Indo-Pacific governments are preoccupied with regional autonomy and digital sovereignty, responding to […]

Does Indonesia have a maritime strategy? There are two ways to approach this question: First, Jakarta does not have universally agreed national guidelines on maritime strategy. However, it consistently refers to three historical reference points: the Struggle for Independence (1945–49), the Djuanda Declaration (1957), and the Palapa Oath (14th century). These emphasize the far-flung archipelago of over 18,000 islands […]