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10x Market Updates Apr 15, 2026
While Futures Traders Look Backward, Something Else Is Buying Bitcoin

Funding rates have been negative for six consecutive weeks. On the surface, that looks bearish — traders paying to be short, excess pessimism in the derivatives market. But the spot price hasn’t moved lower. That divergence is telling us something important about who is actually buying this market.

“When futures markets price in downside that spot markets refuse to confirm, it is almost never the futures traders who are right. The question is not whether spot is being bought — it clearly is. The question is by whom, and at what size.”
The answer lies in a mechanism that most retail participants have never heard of: the MSTR/STRC convertible bond arbitrage. When MicroStrategy issues convertible notes to institutional buyers, those buyers hedge their equity exposure by shorting Bitcoin futures — creating the persistent negative funding we have been tracking since February. Meanwhile, the actual Bitcoin being accumulated sits quietly in cold storage, invisible to on-chain trackers focused on exchange flows. Our STRC Funding Stress Indicator is currently reading 6.2% — well inside the green zone below 7.9%. This is not a market that is being sold. This is a market that is being absorbed.
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10x What Matters May 2, 2026
The SpaceX Thesis: Why the Most Important IPO in a Generation Is Also a Bitcoin Trade

Every 500 years, a technology shift destroys the dominant institution. The printing press killed the Church’s monopoly on information. Gunpowder ended feudalism’s monopoly on violence. Today, low-orbit satellite networks and cryptographic money are dismantling the nation-state’s monopoly on two things it has controlled since Westphalia: jurisdiction and currency.

“Starlink is not a satellite company. It is the physical infrastructure layer for jurisdiction-free transactions — the thing Davidson and Rees-Mogg described in 1997 as the precondition for sovereign individuals. SpaceX’s IPO is not a tech listing. It is the privatisation of that infrastructure.”
The three What Matters themes — dollar debasement, commodity supercycle, and frontier privatisation — are not three separate theses. They are one thesis expressed in three asset classes. Gold and Bitcoin are the monetary layer of the transition. Critical minerals and energy are the physical constraint on the new economy. SpaceX and Starlink are the infrastructure that makes jurisdiction-free capital flows possible at scale. We are not buying a rocket company at 30x revenue. We are buying the physical layer of the post-Westphalian financial system.
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10x Trading Signals · Volatility Edge May 9, 2026
BTC May Bull Call Spread: Why We Are Buying the $88K/$96K Structure This Week

Most Bitcoin options traders lose money for one reason: they buy options when implied volatility is high, and sell them — or let them expire — when it is low. The 23-rule framework exists to systematically invert that behavior. This week’s setup is a textbook example of why the bull call spread is structurally superior to the outright call in the current volatility environment.

“IV rank is sitting at 34th percentile. That means options are cheaper than they have been 66% of the time over the past year. You do not sell premium in this environment. You buy defined-risk structures that give you asymmetric upside at a fraction of the cost of holding spot.”
Trade setup: Buy the BTC May 30 $88,000 call, sell the BTC May 30 $96,000 call. Net debit approximately $1,240 per contract at current mid. Maximum gain $6,760 per contract if BTC closes above $96,000 at expiry — a 5.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Break-even at $89,240. Position sizing: no more than 2% of portfolio notional per the 23-rule framework Rule 7 on defined-risk structures. Stop logic, adjustment triggers, and the specific conditions under which we would close early are detailed below.
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© 2026 10x Research Pte. Ltd. (Singapore UEN: 202346933M). Sample extracts are illustrative of editorial style and research approach. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.