Unexpected Points | Kevin Cole | Substack

Game Reviews

Wild Card Monday Night Steelers-Texans: Advanced Review

Rodgers crashes out in, perhaps, his last performance, and the Texans defense continues its dominance

Jan 13 • Kevin Cole

Wild Card Round Sunday: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Jaguars-Bills, Eagles-49ers & Patriots-Chargers

Jan 12 • Kevin Cole

Wild Card Round Saturday Football: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Panthers-Rams & Bears-Packers

Jan 11 • Kevin Cole

Week 18 Sunday Night Steelers-Ravens: Advanced Review

The Steelers are heading the playoffs, with Rodgers' late-game heroics and some good fortune sealing the game

Jan 5 • Kevin Cole

Week 18 Sunday Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Bills-Jets, Bears-Lions, Broncos-Chargers, Rams-Cardinals, Raiders-Chiefs, Patriots-Dolphins …

Jan 5 • Kevin Cole

Power Rankings

Divisional Round NFL Power Rankings

The Rams continue on a dream path to the Super Bowl, with the Bills enjoying an enormous quarterback advantage

Jan 14 • Kevin Cole

Wild Card Round NFL Power Rankings

The top-7 strongest teams in the NFL made the playoffs, with the Panthers the obvious outlier and the Packers looking better than most think

Jan 8 • Kevin Cole

Week 18 NFL Power Rankings

The Patriots are on the rise, with Week 18 starting quarterback chaos making the ranking mostly tentative

Dec 31, 2025 • Kevin Cole

Week 17 NFL Power Rankings

The Los Angeles Rams are weakened, but still far out ahead of the rest of the NFL

Dec 23, 2025 • Kevin Cole

Week 16 NFL Power Rankings

The Rams at the top, and a long list of second-tier teams who have a shot at making a run to the Super Bowl

Dec 17, 2025 • Kevin Cole

Adjusted QB Efficiency

Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency: Drake Maye is the 2025 MVP

Drake Maye is still the MVP by the advanced stats, though Matthew Stafford has jumped him in betting odds

Jan 7 • Kevin Cole

2025 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency: Through Week 17

Drake Maye has emerged as the MVP favorite, and the adjusted EPA numbers wholeheartedly agree

Dec 31, 2025 • Kevin Cole

2025 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency: Through Week 16

Brock Purdy is still at the top, widening his lead over the rest of the NFL

Dec 24, 2025 • Kevin Cole

2025 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency: Through Week 15

Josh Allen keeps making moves towards the top, and Brock Purdy continues to show his value

Dec 17, 2025 • Kevin Cole

2025 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency: Through Week 14

Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford on the rise, while the disconnect between reputation and results for Justin Herbert continue to widen

Dec 10, 2025 • Kevin Cole

Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Week 7 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Using historical Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE) and Bayesian statistical analysis to most accurately predict quarterback performance

Oct 16, 2025 • Kevin Cole

Week 1 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Using historical Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE) and Bayesian statistical analysis to most accurately predict quarterback performance

Sep 4, 2025 • Kevin Cole

Week 17 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Caleb Williams showing some signs of life, while the top-10 remains solidly in place

Dec 25, 2024 • Kevin Cole

Week 16 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Drake Maye establishing himself in the mid-tier, and Aaron Rodgers showing signs of life

Dec 19, 2024 • Kevin Cole

Week 15 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Russell Wilson and Sam Darnold rising up to the top-half of the rankings

Dec 12, 2024 • Kevin Cole

Research

A Historical Assessment of the 2025 Rookie Quarterback Class

Looking at historical rookie quarterback advanced metrics tell us a lot about how well Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough will perform in the future

Jan 6 • Kevin Cole

2025 NFL Offseason: Improvement Index for all 32 teams

Projecting point-differential gains and losses based on offseason moves for every NFL team

Mar 10, 2025 • Kevin Cole

NFL Plus/Minus: Myles Garrett is the Defensive Player of the Year (Again)

Using historical on-off the field splits and player clustering to estimate value of defenders

Jan 16, 2025 • Kevin Cole

NFL Plus/Minus: Who Should Be The 2024 NFL Offensive Player Of The Year?

Using proprietary NFL Plus/Minus methodology to concretely assign value to all non-quarterback offensive players

Jan 9, 2025 • Kevin Cole

2024 NFL Offseason: Improvement Index for all 32 teams

Projecting point-differential gains and losses based on offseason moves for every NFL team

Mar 13, 2024 • Kevin Cole

NFL Draft

2025 Analytical Draft Grades: AFC

Quantifying trade, positional and selection value for the most accurate and predictive assessments of how well teams did in the NFL draft

Apr 28, 2025 • Kevin Cole

2025 Analytical Draft Grades: NFC

Quantifying trade, positional and selection value for the most accurate and predictive assessments of how well teams did in the NFL draft

Apr 28, 2025 • Kevin Cole

2025 NFL Draft Day 2 Analytical Review

Using consensus data from mock drafts and big boards, plus surplus value considerations, to analyze Day 2 of the NFL draft

Apr 26, 2025 • Kevin Cole

2025 NFL Draft First-Round Analytical Review

Using consensus data from mock drafts and big boards, plus surplus value considerations, to analyze the first round of the NFL draft

Apr 25, 2025 • Kevin Cole

Final 2025 Consensus NFL Draft Mock

Leveraging hundreds of media and analyst mock drafts to project the consensus picks and range of outcomes through the first round of the 2025 NFL draft

Apr 22, 2025 • Kevin Cole

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