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Forest Industries I: Basics
The Forest Industries are a long value chain, extending from natural and planted forests through processed wood materials vital for construction and…
Mar 29
7
2
Most Popular
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Olefins Primer Series 1: Intro
Sep 13, 2025
26
3
5
Olefins Primer III - LyondellBasell & Dow
Nov 9, 2025
26
1
4
A Framework For The Cyclical Industries
Nov 2, 2024
23
7
3
Olefins II: Big Oil & China, the cycle disruptors
Oct 26, 2025
21
4
3
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Recent posts
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Brazil Leveraged Names Overview
Analyzing 10 plus companies at the edge of financial breakeven that will benefit from lower rates.
Mar 8
8
1
Brazil Leveraged Names Overview Annex: Derivatives accounting and the upcoming IPCA swap revaluation
A double-click on specific aspects of derivatives and hedge accounting
Mar 8
Suzano + Pulp and Paper Primer
The Brazilian hardwood pulp leader at a cyclical cross roads
Feb 15
15
2
3
Suzano + Pulp and Paper Primer Annex
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the Blog are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or…
Feb 15
2
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Framework
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US deficits: much more than manufacturing
Analyzing the exposure of the US to its own trade deficits, going well beyong manufacturing and jobs, into credit, demand and productivity.
Aug 3, 2025
14
1
4
Where do stock returns come from? A napkin framework.
Distilling down a DCF to its simplest components
Jun 29, 2025
18
4
5
Trade and Capital at the Crossroads of War
Global imbalances and the forces that may soon reshape them
Apr 6, 2025
15
4
5
A Basic Framework for Growth Stocks and Industries.
Tools for dealing with high multiples, uncertainty, and qualitative data.
Dec 7, 2024
13
6
3
Industry report
View all
Forest Industries I: Basics
The Forest Industries are a long value chain, extending from natural and planted forests through processed wood materials vital for construction and…
Mar 29
7
2
Suzano + Pulp and Paper Primer
The Brazilian hardwood pulp leader at a cyclical cross roads
Feb 15
15
2
3
Suzano + Pulp and Paper Primer Annex
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the Blog are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or…
Feb 15
2
US Trucking Primer II : Truckload Carriers Overview
Continuing the analysis of the trucking industry and cycle from two weeks ago, this article provides an overview of the truckload carrier segment.
Feb 1
8
2
US Trucking Primer I: Cycle basics
Death on the Ridge Road - Grant Wood - 1935 (Wikimedia)
Jan 18
15
1
1
Lithium review - 4Q25
Sentiment changes from glut to shortage, does it have any battery left?
Dec 7, 2025
9
3
2
Brazil monetary and credit cycle review
Interest rates, money supply, credit growth, NPLs, and credit exposures by bank
Sep 27, 2025
8
5
2
Olefins Primer Series 1: Intro
15-page dive into the heart of the Chemicals industry
Sep 13, 2025
26
3
5
Emerging Markets
View all
Brazil Leveraged Names Overview
Analyzing 10 plus companies at the edge of financial breakeven that will benefit from lower rates.
Mar 8
8
1
Brazil Leveraged Names Overview Annex: Derivatives accounting and the upcoming IPCA swap revaluation
A double-click on specific aspects of derivatives and hedge accounting
Mar 8
Suzano + Pulp and Paper Primer
The Brazilian hardwood pulp leader at a cyclical cross roads
Feb 15
15
2
3
Suzano + Pulp and Paper Primer Annex
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the Blog are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or…
Feb 15
2
Lithium review - 4Q25
Sentiment changes from glut to shortage, does it have any battery left?
Dec 7, 2025
9
3
2
Capital-spread businesses: the Localiza example
As part of a review of Brazilian names, I studied a vehicle-renting company called Localiza, recommended by some readers.
Nov 23, 2025
5
1
Brazil monetary and credit cycle review
Interest rates, money supply, credit growth, NPLs, and credit exposures by bank
Sep 27, 2025
8
5
2
Pagseguro and Stone, cheap for a reason?
Economics and prospects of the two large Brazilian POS networks.
Jun 8, 2025
11
3
3
Company analysis
View all
Suzano + Pulp and Paper Primer
The Brazilian hardwood pulp leader at a cyclical cross roads
Feb 15
15
2
3
US Trucking Primer II : Truckload Carriers Overview
Continuing the analysis of the trucking industry and cycle from two weeks ago, this article provides an overview of the truckload carrier segment.
Feb 1
8
2
Lithium majors: an asset by asset profitability analysis
Disentangling the operations of Ganfeng, Tianqi, Albemarle, and SQM asset by asset for different long-term lithium price scenarios.
Dec 21, 2025
7
1
1
Capital-spread businesses: the Localiza example
As part of a review of Brazilian names, I studied a vehicle-renting company called Localiza, recommended by some readers.
Nov 23, 2025
5
1
Olefins Primer III - LyondellBasell & Dow
American olefin pure-plays: capital allocation, markets, competitiveness, liquidity and scenarios.
Nov 9, 2025
26
1
4
Pagseguro and Stone, cheap for a reason?
Economics and prospects of the two large Brazilian POS networks.
Jun 8, 2025
11
3
3
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): more than meets the eye
A GARP company or a falling consumer-discretionary knife?
Mar 9, 2025
5
2
2
XP: the leading Brazilian retail broker
A 20-page primer on one of the companies best positioned to capture a Brazilian equities recovery.
Feb 2, 2025
10
1
4
Portfolio
4Q25 Portfolio Review
After every quarter, I provide a review of the performance and positions of my two personal accounts (IBKR and Argentina).
Jan 4
11
1
1
2Q25 Portfolio Review
After every quarter, I provide a review of the performance and positions of my two personal accounts (IBKR and Argentina).
Jul 6, 2025
5
1
1
1Q25 and April Portfolio Review
After every quarter, I provide a review of the performance and positions of my two personal accounts (IBKR and Argentina).
Apr 27, 2025
2
3
4Q24 Portfolio and Idea Review
Looking back at 2024, looking forward at 2025.
Jan 5, 2025
5
Show me the money!
Exhibiting my past performance and current portfolio holdings, expect one quarterly update!
Oct 6, 2024
7
2
Investment philosophy
Where do stock returns come from? A napkin framework.
Distilling down a DCF to its simplest components
Jun 29, 2025
18
4
5
Stock markets are the enemy of investors
Liquidity, diversification, and financial theory are not good friends of investors.
Aug 18, 2024
5
2
2
The epistemology of value investing
A reflection on the value method.
Mar 17, 2024
6
1
Value hunting in apparel retailing.
Finding value in the debris after Amazon, Shein, and the macro.
Mar 2, 2024
2
3
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